Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.
Three games interest me: Rockies vs. Diamondbacks, Twins vs. Guardians, and Phillies vs. Padres.
For your best bets today, I will recommend investing in Arizona RL, Twins ML, and Phillies ML.
These bets are supported by both handicapping and OddsTrader’s computers.
Picks Summary
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, September 04, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
- Computer Prediction
Our computers predict that Arizona will blow out Colorado.
I argue that they are right and that we should, therefore, invest in Diamondbacks RL.
Who Starts for the Rockies?
It’s bad news for the Rockies that Peter Lambert is starting for them today. This is because they tend to lose when he starts.
Overall, they are 2-7 in his starts. One might try to say that this statistic is irrelevant because Colorado loses a lot, anyway. However, on the season, Colorado owns a 36.8-percent win rate.
When Lambert pitches, this win rate drops 14 percent. As evident in his 4.95 ERA, Lambert himself contributes significantly to Colorado’s tendency to lose when he starts.
Matchup Factor
Primarily, Lambert throws a fastball, slider, changeup, and sweeper. These four pitches make up just over 97 percent of his arsenal.
Arizona matches up well against him, ranking eighth with a .434 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for the Diamondbacks?
Merrill Kelly starts for Arizona today. Kelly is in a good spot today because he reliably bounces back after a poor outing.
Before his last start, he allowed four or more runs on three separate occasions this season. In the start directly following each such occasion, he allowed one run.
Kelly vs. Rockies
Kelly likes facing the Rockies. He’s allowed a combined total of three runs in his two starts against them so far, even though those starts took place in hitter-friendly Coors Field and even though he is much better at home than on the road.
Whereas his road ERA is 3.69, he yields a 2.96 ERA at home.
Rockies Away From Home
The Rockies have to transition directly from playing in their uniquely hitter-friendly ballpark to competing on the road. They are particularly ill-equipped to handle Kelly’s pitches away from home.
Kelly throws a fastball, changeup, cutter, sinker, curveball, and slider. On the road, Colorado slugs .379 against his pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-120) at Bet365
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Monday, September 04, 2023 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
- Computer Prediction
Our computers predict the Twins to win.
Here’s why you should believe them and invest in Twins ML.
Who Starts for the Twins?
Pablo Lopez starts for the Twins today. Lopez’s last start came against Cleveland, and it was a rather poor one: he yielded a 4.50 ERA.
However, when facing the same team in consecutive starts, he tends to perform well in the rematch especially when he did not already do well in the first meeting.
For example, on July 20 he yielded a 3.60 ERA against the Mariners. Then, on July 25, he yielded a 2.57 ERA against them in his next start.
Lopez’s start against Cleveland on June 1 proves that he can thrive when facing this team. While he allowed a lot of runs in that start, he was the victim of a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
More tellingly, he did a tremendous job both inducing soft contact and minimizing hard contact. His 2.02 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start reflects how well he actually performed.
Lopez’s Arsenal
In addition to the rematch spot and to his history against Cleveland, Lopez is reliable today for matchup-related reasons. He throws a fastball, changeup, sweeper, curveball, and sinker.
Cleveland matches up poorly against him, ranking 28th with a .381 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Cleveland?
Lucas Giolito starts for the Guardians today. Giolito’s success this season creates a misleadingly positive impression of his outlook today. It is very hard to succeed four times in a season against the same lineup.
The Twins’ familiarity with him gives their lineup a unique advantage today. Moreover, Giolito is in a difficult spot because this is his first time pitching for Cleveland.
This is a nerve-wracking spot because the pitcher feels pressure to make a good impression on his teammates. When Giolito pitched for the first time as an Angel, he worsened his season ERA and took the loss in Toronto.
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-130) at Bet365
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Monday, September 04, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at PETCO Park in San Diego
- Computer Prediction
Our computers predict that Philadelphia will defeat San Diego. Here’s why they are right and you should bet on Phillies ML.
Who Starts for San Diego?
Rich Hill starts for the Padres today. Hill is a good bet to lose, especially lately.
The Padres have lost the last four games in which he started. On the season, they are now yielding -4.6 units in his starts.
Hill’s Struggles
San Diego reliably loses when Hill starts largely because of Hill himself. His 5.26 season ERA speaks for himself, but he has been especially bad in his most recent starts. He has yielded an ERA of 5.40 or worse in five straight starts, dating from August 6 to August 30.
Due to his ongoing tendency to allow opponents to be very productive, he collected the loss in three of those starts. This ongoing tendency is particularly worrisome for Hill because he has sustained it against weaker matchups.
Milwaukee, for example, thrived against Hill despite ranking 19th in runs per game and 26th in slugging against left-handed pitching.
Philadelphia’s Lineup
The Phillies will pose a relatively tough challenge for Hill. They hit lefties better than most teams and they are specifically well-equipped to hit his pitches.
Philadelphia slugs .435 against Hill’s pitches from lefties.
Who Starts for the Phillies?
The Phillies start Taijuan Walker today.
Walker has been performing well lately: he enters today’s game having yielded an FIP of 2.73 or better in his last two starts.
He is in just the place to prolong this positive trend, as he owns a 2.74 career ERA in San Diego.
MLB Pick: Phillies ML (-115) at Bet365
