Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.
Three games interest me: Mariners vs. Reds, Cardinals vs. Braves, and Orioles vs. Angels.
I will recommend that you invest in Seattle and Atlanta on the run-line and Baltimore on the moneyline. My recommendations are backed by OddsTrader’s computers and my handicapping.
Picks Summary:
Seattle Mariners vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, September 06, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
- Computer Pick
Our computers predict that Seattle will blow out Cincinnati.
After losing a close, high-scoring battle yesterday, the Mariners are primed with their major pitching advantage to cash in your Mariners RL bets.
Who Starts for Seattle?
Logan Gilbert starts for the Mariners today. Gilbert enters today’s game in strong form: he has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in his last three games.
His current form is particularly impressive because he has sustained it against tough competition, such as the Astros in their ballpark. Skeptics may say that Gilbert is allowing too many home runs, but all of the home runs that he’s allowed have been without runners on base.
He is simply being more aggressive in lower-risk situations. If he were giving up home runs with men on base, I would be worried, but he’s not doing that.
What he is doing is minimizing opposing scoring outputs while lasting deep into games – he’s pitched six or more innings in three straight games now.
Who Starts for the Reds?
Lyon Richardson starts for Cincinnati. Richardson is starting out of necessity, not because the Reds find it ideal. Obviously, Cincinnati would prefer to rely on a pitcher who established himself professionally.
Playing primarily in Triple-A, Richardson can hardly call himself a pro pitcher. His results in MLB games attest to his lack of professional readiness: his ERA is 6.75, and he has failed to last five innings in a given outing.
Richardson’s Arsenal
Richardson relies heavily on his fastball, throwing it nearly half the time. Yet, his struggles with this pitch indicate that he does not have a pitch that he can really rely on.
Opponents slug .786 against his fastball. He also throws a changeup, curveball, sinker, and slider. However, the Mariners will be ready for all his pitches: they rank ninth with a .436 slugging rate against Richardson’s pitches from righties.
Their outlook today is vital because, even if Richardson were a pro-ready pitcher, they still match up excellently against him.
MLB Pick: Mariners -1.5 (-110) at Bet365
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, September 06, 2023 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
- Computer Pick
Our computers indicate that Atlanta will defeat St. Louis by a significant margin.
After failing to come back yesterday, the Braves make for a great run-line bet today.
Who Starts for St. Louis?
Dakota Hudson starts for the Cardinals today. While Hudson has had a few good starts lately, he also benefited from facing soft competition that does not compare with the quality of hitting that he will encounter today.
Recently, Hudson did well against the Pirates, A’s, and Mets, but the Pirates rank seventh-to-last in runs per game, the A’s rank last in runs per game, and the Mets rank 18th in the category.
Two starts ago, Hudson faced a much tougher Philadelphia team. The Phillies rank ninth in runs per game and amassed five earned runs against him.
Atlanta is even more demanding than Philly. The Braves rank first in runs per game. It stands to reason that they will amass a tremendous run total today. Since they lost yesterday, they’ll be sure to take Hudson seriously.
Hudson’s Arsenal
Hudson lacks the quality in his arsenal to handle a lineup like Atlanta’s. Primarily, he throws a sinker, slider, and fastball. Yet his pitches are problematic.
For example, as heat maps show, he often leaves them in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Atlanta also matches up well against him, ranking first with a .500 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Who Starts for Atlanta?
Spencer Strider starts for the Braves today.
Strider was unfortunate to allow as many runs as he did in his last start – he allowed four in six innings in Dodger Stadium.
His 3.43 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) reflects how well he actually performed. Against softer competition – the Dodgers are elite – he had allowed one run in his three previous starts.
Cardinals’ Lineup
Not only do the Cardinals pose a softer test, but they are in the wrong spot after their explosion yesterday.
This season, they are 1-7 in the game following one in which they scored ten or more runs.
MLB Pick: Braves -1.5 (-130) at Bet365
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, September 06, 2023 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
- Computer Pick
Our computers indicate that Baltimore will win tonight.
I argue that you should, indeed, invest in Orioles ML.
Team Rhythm
It might seem implausible because a new pitcher starts every game, but it is important to consider team rhythm.
Team rhythm helps explain why teams go on winning or losing streaks despite starting a new pitcher every game. Tonight’s contest is unique because both teams enjoy different rhythms.
Whereas the Angels have lost five in a row, Baltimore has won four in a row. While the Orioles are hot, the Angels have been sliding for a while now. On August 16, they were 60-62. They are now 64-75, having lost 13 of their last 17 games. It’s not like they’re facing tough competition, either.
Before losing their last two games against Baltimore, they were swept by lowly Oakland.
Who Starts for Baltimore?
Kyle Gibson starts for the O’s today. Gibson is reliable today because he has established a good habit of bouncing back after a terrible start.
He has yielded an FIP of below 2.10 in both of his last starts that directly followed one in which he allowed five or more runs.
Matchup Comparison
Baltimore’s starting pitcher also enjoys a tremendous matchup edge over his Angels counterpart.
Whereas, since their slump began on August 19, the Angels rank 22nd with a .408 slugging rate against Gibson’s pitches from righties, the Orioles rank ninth with a .432 slugging rate against L.A. starter Patrick Sandoval‘s pitches from lefties.
Baltimore also boasts a much better bullpen, as measured by ERA.
MLB Pick: Orioles ML (-130) at Bet365
