Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball Wild Card action.
Three games interest me: Rangers vs. Rays, Diamondbacks vs. Brewers, and Marlins vs. Phillies.
For your best bets, I will recommend that you invest in all three home teams. These bets are backed by the computers at OddsTrader and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tuesday, October 03, 2023Â – 03:08 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
Computer Pick
Our computers project a strong win for Tampa Bay.
In alignment with this projection, it is worth chalking it up with the Rays ML.
Jordan Montgomery (Texas Rangers)
Jordan Montgomery starts for Texas today. Montgomery’s recent success creates a misleading impression of him.
His pitch selection is what explains his recent success. He is a lefty who, primarily, throws a sinker, changeup, curveball, and fastball. These pitches combine to make up over 98 percent of his arsenal.
He has been performing well because each of his last four opponents ranked in the bottom half in slugging against his pitches from lefties. This string of good starts would make him reliable against a similarly propitious matchup.
However, one cannot reasonably find him reliable against a team that matches up better against him, so we need to consider how well Tampa Bay matches up against him.
Rays’ Lineup
I like the Rays to hit Montgomery well because they match up well against him. They rank fifth with a .451 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
One Rays player who’s already shown to enjoy facing Montgomery is Manuel Margot.
Margot is 6-for-18 with four doubles and a homer when facing the Rangers’ southpaw.
Tyler Glasnow (Tampa Bay Rays)
Tyler Glasnow starts for Tampa Bay today.
Glasnow enjoys strong form. His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 2.88 two starts ago and 0.26 in his last start.
Today, his outlook is particularly strong because he loves facing Texas. In his career, he is 3-0 with a 0.46 ERA in three career starts against the Rangers.
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-150) at Bet365
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, October 03, 2023Â – 07:08 PM EDT at American Family Field
Computer Pick
Our computers indicate that Milwaukee will dominate Arizona today.
Accordingly, you should invest in the Brewers RL.
Brandon Pfaadt (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Brandon Pfaadt starts for Arizona today. Pfaadt’s last start creates a misleading outlook for him tonight.
Bettors are often guided by a phenomenon called recency bias, whereby humans attach more significance to the most recent events. Because Pfaadt performed well in his last start, it is therefore easy to think that he will again pitch well today.
However, it is just the opposite with him. He never pitches well in consecutive starts. Put differently, he is consistently inconsistent.
Whenever he has allowed one run or zero runs in a start, he has always allowed more production in his following start. This tendency to struggle after a good outing is marked because he has sustained it even against teams that match up well against him.
For example, the Yankees rank 23rd in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties. Nevertheless, he allowed five earned runs in 4.1 innings against them.
Corbin Burnes (Milwaukee Brewers)
Milwaukee starts Corbin Burnes today.
Burnes enters today’s game in strong form: he has allowed zero runs in both of his last two starts.
Among other things that are helping him limit opposing production, he is doing a great job of limiting soft contact.
Arizona’s Lineup
Unlike Burnes, Arizona’s lineup is struggling. The Diamondbacks enter today’s game in terrible hitting form.
As they closed out the regular season with a four-game losing streak, they mustered a combined total of three runs in those four games.
During this streak, they are 7-for-54 with a .167 slugging rate against Burnes’ pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+115) at Bet365
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Tuesday, October 03, 2023Â – 08:08 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Computer Pick
Our computers indicate that Philadelphia will win tonight’s game by a significant margin.
I agree and contend that you should invest in Phillies RL.
Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins)
Jesus Luzardo starts for Miami today. This year represents a regression for Luzardo. In terms of stats like ERA, he has declined relative to last season.
Among other things, he is striking out fewer batters and allowing home runs at a higher rate.
Especially since August, he has shown a susceptibility to imploding, to having terrible outings where essentially everything goes wrong.
But even without imploding, he is also struggling against weaker lineups, such as Milwaukee’s.
Luzardo’s Pitching Arsenal
Luzardo’s pitching repertoire explains his vulnerability. He throws mainly three pitches: a fastball, slider, and changeup.
These are the only pitches that he throws over five percent of the time. He throws each one over 20 percent of the time.
As heat maps show, he often leaves his pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
The Phillies’ outlook is strong today, hitting-wise, because they rank eighth in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies)
Philadelphia starts Zack Wheeler today.
Wheeler enters today’s game in strong form: after yielding a 2.40 FIP two starts ago, his FIP was 2.25
He’s doing a strong job of striking batters out while avoiding walks and home runs.
Wheeler vs. Marlins
Wheeler throws a fastball, sinker, slider, and sweeper. The quality of his pitches makes them very hard to hit.
His fastball, for example. boasts strong velocity and a high spin rate which makes it both hard to keep up with and hard to keep track of.
He’s primed to continue thriving against a Marlins lineup that, despite usually facing weaker versions of them, ranks below average in slugging against his pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+140) at Bet365
