With the betting odds for today’s playoff baseball action, we have our top picks of the day. Three games in particular interest me: Rangers vs. Rays, Diamondbacks vs. Brewers, and Marlins vs. Phillies.
My recommendations are backed by OddsTrader’s computer AI and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
- Rangers-Rays Over 8 (-105) at Bet365
- Diamondbacks-Brewers Under 7.5 (-115) at Bet365
- Marlins-Phillies Over 8 (-105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, October 4, 2023 – 03:08 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
Our computers project a high-scoring game.
I contend that you should agree with this projection and bet the “over.”
Nathan Eovaldi (Texas Rangers)
Nathan Eovaldi starts for Texas today.
Playoff baseball is a somewhat misleading term. While playoff baseball is distinct from regular season baseball, the first playoff games are also simply games that directly follow the regular season.
Eovaldi is, therefore, not going to transform into a different pitcher than the pitcher he has currently been, which is a pitcher who is struggling from game to game.
He is unlikable today because he enters this contest in terrible form. His poor form is continually worsening: three and four starts ago, he yielded a 5.40 ERA; two starts ago, he yielded a 9.00 ERA; in his last start, he yielded an 18.90 ERA.
Opponents are generating a lot of runs off him mainly because they are crushing his pitches. In each of his last three starts, he yielded hard contact at a rate well above 50%.
Worrying for him is that he is struggling against lesser lineups – so his problems are not a mere matter of the quality of his competition.
His last four opponents all rank outside the top 10 in runs per game.
Tampa Bay’s Lineup
The Rays will pose a relatively tough challenge for the already struggling Eovaldi.
They are objectively tougher than his last opponents – they rank fourth in runs per game.
But they also match up excellently against him: they slug .445 against his favorite pitches from righties.
Zach Eflin (Tampa Bay Rays)
Today’s game will be high-scoring because Texas can keep pace with the Rays’ scoring.
Zach Eflin starts for the Rays, and he is especially vulnerable today.
The Rangers slug .464 against his pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-105) at Bet365
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, October 4, 2023 – 07:08 PM EDT at American Family Field
Our computers indicate that today’s game will be low-scoring. Accordingly, you should play the “under.”
Zac Gallen (Arizona Diamondbacks)
Zac Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks tonight.
Gallen enters today’s game in strong form: he’s allowed a combined total of two runs in his last two starts.
His last outing was particularly impressive: he held the AL West champion Astros to two runs in 6.1 innings. This start was particularly impressive because he was unfortunate to be victimized by a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 1.52 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how well he performed and underscores how strong his current form is entering today’s game.
Gallen vs. Brewers Lineup
Gallen will continue to pitch well today because he matches up well against the Brewers in view of the pitches that he throws.
His fastball, curveball, changeup, and cutter combine to make up over 96% of his arsenal.
Milwaukee ranks 28th with a .393 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
History in Milwaukee
The only reasonable claim that Brewers backers will make against Gallen is that he is unreliable on the road, but road ERA is a statistic that needs to be treated with caution because it treats all ballparks alike even though ballparks differ from each other.
Milwaukee can hardly be called a road game for Gallen, because he feels at home in this city. In Milwaukee, he owns a 3.18 ERA in three career starts.
Freddy Peralta (Milwaukee Brewers)
The Brewers start Freddy Peralta tonight. Peralta is automatically worth investing in when he faces Arizona.
In his career, he is 3-0 with a 0.55 ERA against the Diamondbacks. His ability to keep pace with Gallen will ensure a low-scoring affair.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at Bet365
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, October 4, 2023 – 08:08 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
Our computers project this game to be high-scoring. You should, I contend, trust our computers and play the “over.”
Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies)
Philadelphia starts Aaron Nola tonight.
Nola is facing one of his nightmare opponents, Miami. This might seem odd because he faced the mighty Braves multiple times, but of all the teams that he faced more than once, no team gave him more trouble than the Marlins.
In three starts against them this year, he is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA, and it’s not like his ERA is inflated by a single bad start, he struggles against them consistently. In each start against them, he allowed four earned runs.
Marlins Batters
Several batters, for Miami, should be relied upon to thrive today with Nola on the mound.
For example, both Jon Berti and Bryan De La Cruz bat .308 and slug .615 in 13 career at-bats against Nola. As another example, Luis Arraez is 3-for-9 facing Nola with a double and a triple.
Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins)
Braxton Garrett starts for Miami today.
Garrett does not like pitching in Philadelphia. In the Phillies’ venue, Garrett suffers a 5.00 ERA in two career starts.
One problem is that he allows a lot of home runs here, which suggests that he has a problem with the dimensions of the ballpark.
The Matchup
But Garrett also matches up poorly against the Phillies, making them reliable against him regardless of where they play.
Garrett is a lefty who throws a sinker, slider, cutter, changeup, curveball, and fastball.
The outlook of Philly’s lineup today is solid because Philadelphia ranks fifth in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-105) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
