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MLB Playoffs Computer Picks for October 9: High-Scoring Excitement Awaits in Atlanta

Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.

Both games are worth investing in: Phillies vs. Braves and Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers.

For your best bets, I will recommend wagering on the Phillies RL, Phillies-Braves “Over,” and Diamondbacks ML. These bets are backed by the computers at OddsTrader and by my handicapping.

Picks Summary

  • Phillies +1.5 (-165) 
  • Phillies-Braves Over 8 (-115) 
  • Dodgers (-155)

*All odds are courtesy of Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)


Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

Monday, October 09, 2023 – 06:07 PM EDT at Truist Park


Computer Pick

Our computers project a close game, so you should take the extra run and play the Phillies RL. Additionally, they predict a high-scoring affair between Philadelphia and Atlanta, so you should also play the “Over.”

Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies)

Zack Wheeler’s season-long statistics don’t do him justice. His ERA this season was 3.61, but he is much better than this number suggests. He did a great job of inducing soft contact. In this respect, he was unfortunate to allow as many runs as he did.

His 3.15 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how well he actually performed. In his first playoff game this season, against Miami, he locked down the Marlins. Miami was so bereft of confidence in its ability to score against Wheeler that it risked playing its fielders closer to home plate in order to prevent Philadelphia from scoring at all.

Whereas Fried hasn’t pitched since September 21 and might, as a result, suffer from rust, Wheeler is going to benefit from having played this playoff game.

Wheeler vs. Braves Batters

In the regular season, Wheeler loved pitching in Atlanta. On May 27, he threw eight shutout innings with twelve strikeouts to one walk, in Atlanta.

On September 18 in Atlanta, he allowed one earned run in six innings and again held Atlanta to three hits.

Max Fried (Atlanta Braves)

Max Fried starts for the Braves today. Fried’s ERA this season suggests that he is better than he is.

While his regular season ERA of 2.55 looks amazing, it masks a 3.14 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) which places him on the same level as Wheeler. While it might seem confusing to figure out, given their similar FIPs, which pitcher to trust, the fact that Philadelphia is a heavy underdog despite Wheeler being objectively as good as Fried indicates that there is significant betting value in the Phillies.

Additionally, the “Over” for this game is going to hit primarily because Atlanta starter Max Fried is going to struggle. Fried has delivered subpar performances against weaker lineups, such as that of the Cardinals, and yet he faces today a tougher test in the Phillies.

Fried vs. Philly Batters

Fried’s recent history against Philadelphia also suggests that the Phillies have the edge today.

On September 12, he did hold the Phillies to one run. However, he did a horrible job of inducing soft contact. He simply benefited from Philly’s low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) His 4.66 FIP shows how poorly he actually performed.

This performance indicates that Philadelphia is more than capable of thriving against Fried. The Phillies’ lineup won’t be so unlucky again.

Matchup Details

Fried should be expected to struggle against Philly’s lineup because he matches up poorly against it. This is true in view of the pitches that he throws. His pitches are fastball, curveball, changeup, sinker, slider, and sweeper.

Philadelphia ranks sixth with a .442 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties. Fried has struggled against similarly difficult tests, which confirms the importance of looking at these matchup details when predicting the outcome of a game in which Fried starts.

For example, Baltimore, which ranks two spots below Philadelphia in slugging against Fried’s pitches from lefties, gave Fried his worst start of the season. Against the Orioles, he allowed five earned runs.

Atlanta’s Lineup

While I prefer Philadelphia’s pitching, the fact is that Atlanta has a very good lineup. The Braves will accomplish the little scoring that we need from them for the “Over,” because they will not get shut out again.

It is simply implausible to expect the Braves to get shut out twice in a row. They do repeatedly bounce back at least somewhat from poor hitting performances.

For example, they scored nine runs on September 19 against the Phillies after scoring one run on September 18 against them. A few runs will do the trick.

Bullpen

Philadelphia’s bullpen was able to lock down Atlanta after starter Ranger Suarez failed to complete four innings.

Strong bullpen play further justifies confidence in the Phillies.

MLB Pick: Phillies +1.5 (-165) at Bet365

MLB Pick: Over 8 (-115) at Bet365


Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Monday, October 09, 2023 – 09:07 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium


Computer Pick

Our computers project a Dodger triumph and I agree. You should play the Dodgers ML.

Zac Gallen (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Arizona starts Zac Gallen tonight. Gallen is a big-name pitcher, and it might be tempting to invest in Arizona because he is starting. However, Gallen won’t live up to his name tonight.

The Dodgers’ lineup is filled with big names, and they are simply too good for him. His history against them this year proves it. In his first start of the season, he allowed five earned runs in 4.2 innings against them.

More recently, on August 28, he lasted 5.1 innings against them and allowed six earned runs. The fact that these two starts took place so far apart from each other is telling. Regardless of how well he might have been pitching previously, Gallen is reliably poor against the Dodgers.

Matchup Details

One should expect Gallen to struggle against the Dodgers because they match up well against him.

Primarily, Gallen throws a fastball, curveball, changeup, and cutter. L.A. ranks second with a .473 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.

Dodgers Batters

Among others, look out for Will Smith and Mookie Betts. Both slug at least .500 in their career facing Gallen.

Bobby Miller (Los Angeles Dodgers)

Bobby Miller starts for the Dodgers tonight.

Miller enters today’s game in strong form: he’s allowed a combined total of four earned runs in his last three starts.

Miller vs. Diamondback Batters

Arizona ranks barely above average in slugging rate against Miller’s pitches from righties. He throws a fastball, sinker, curveball, slider, and changeup.

With his unique velocity and good spin rate, he ably challenges Diamondback batters.

MLB Pick: Dodgers (-155) at Bet365

The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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