Strikeout predictions have never been easier to make in Major League Baseball – but can you turn those numbers into pure profit? Only if you use the right approach. Old-school MLB betting theory still applies; you need to put those K projections in context, and do some smart handicapping if you want to beat the baseball odds on the regular.
OddsTrader is here to help. We’ve dug deep and found our three strikeout best bets from Tuesday’s MLB player props list; you might be familiar with all three starting pitchers, but we’ll show you the finer details that make each one worth at least a small wager.
MLB Best Strikeout Props Today
Using the early MLB odds at top sportsbooks as our guide, here’s what we’ve come up with for our strikeout best bets today:
- Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts
- Hunter Brown Over 6.5 Strikeouts
- Jacob Misiorowski Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Find the Right Sportsbooks at OddsTrader
We’re particularly keen on Cease for Tuesday’s strikeout best bets, but you have to get him at the right price – some online sportsbooks have more vigorish attached to their prop totals than others.
If you haven’t already, make sure to sign up for multiple sportsbook accounts so you can get the best odds available on any given day, using the reviews here at OddsTrader to choose the best books for your sports betting needs.
Dylan Cease Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-137) at Caesars
If you’re the San Diego Padres (74-57 at press time), you’re loving life right now – but you have to ride the rollercoaster when it comes to Cease. He leads the Padres rotation with 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings; Cease is also a volatile commodity who’s only made it past the fifth inning once in his last six starts.
That didn’t stop Cease from striking out at least seven batters on four of those occasions. Our early projections suggest there’s a 62% chance he’ll do the same Tuesday against the 70-61 Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park; you don’t want to pay more than -160 in vig for Over 6.5 to make a profit in the long run.
Hunter Brown Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-124) at Caesars
The 72-59 Houston Astros have ridden their 1-2 combination of Framber Valdez and Brown to the top spot in the American League West; Brown leads Houston’s rotation with 10.3 Ks per nine innings, earning his first All-Star nod in his fourth MLB campaign.
It helps our cause that Brown will face the last-place Colorado Rockies (37-94) this Tuesday, and they’ll be at Houston’s Daikin Park, which ranks No. 10 at Baseball Savant with a 102 park factor for strikeouts. We’ve pegged Brown’s chances of topping 6.5 Ks at 58%, for break-even juice of -140 at this total; Brown’s projection goes up to 68% (-215 break-even) if you grab that total at 5.5.
Jacob Misiorowski Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-150) at Caesars
Are the 81-50 Milwaukee Brewers really the best team in baseball? Yes, according to their plus-159 run differential – and they’ve gotten even better with the arrival of Misiorowski, aka “The Miz.” No offense to the wrestler with the same nickname, but Misiorowski looks more like Bret “Hitman” Hart after nine big-league starts at 12.80 strikeouts per nine innings.
Will he get to six at American Family Field against the 64-67 Arizona Diamondbacks? Our early projections have Misiorowski going Over 56% of the time (-125 break-even), and that might be soft-pedalling his chances after Arizona’s fire sale at the MLB trade deadline.
OddsTrader Turbo Unlocks Better Bets
We’ve done our best to jump on the early MLB prop odds to see where the betting value is, but things can change in a heartbeat when you’re dealing with starting pitchers and their projections. Which relievers will be available on Tuesday? Will the weather change? Use OddsTrader Turbo to keep track of the baseball odds in real time across multiple sportsbooks, so you’ll never get caught with your pants down like Steve Lyons.
Tips for Strikeout Props
Speaking of the weather, that’s No. 1 on our checklist of things to keep an eye on before you load up on Tuesday’s strikeout props:
- Wind conditions are especially sensitive for betting at T-Mobile Park, where the dynamic between home runs and strikeouts can change in a heartbeat; always get the latest forecasts before rushing to the ticket window.
- Official starting lineups and bullpen availability notes are typically available 60-90 minutes before game time, so you might want to protect your wagers by waiting for that information.
- Different sportsbooks will have slightly different totals, either with the over/under number itself or the vigorish that comes attached. The more books you sign up for, the easier it will be to shop around for the best MLB props odds.
- Size your bets according to how big your potential profit margin is. Small edge, small bet; big edge, big bet. We see some tasty edges available at press time for the three strikeout props listed above, so manage your bankroll to maximize your long-term results, and we’ll see you on the diamond.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
