With a full slate of games on the horizon, I looked for some massive underdog plays using our AI Model. I listed three underdog bets using the player prop section and discussed the analytics behind each bet below. Check it out before locking in your bets at top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary:
- Casey Schmitt Under .5 Hits (+105)
- JJ Bleday Under .5 Hits (+110)
- Michael Conforto Under .5 Hits (+100)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, June 03, 2025 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The AI Model suggests Casey Schmitt will record .394 hits in tonight’s game against the Padres. However, his prop line is at .5, with the under at +105. That’s a big-time valuable wager.
Don’t Count On Casey Schmitt!
The Padres will roll with Ryan Bergert tonight. He’s only thrown against 14 batters but has allowed a .000 ISO and wOBA of .103 to his first seven righties this season.
Meanwhile, the Giants will likely give Casey Schmitt the start against Bergert. He’s hit a .000 ISO and wOBA of .199 with 26.7% of strikeouts against righties over the last 30 days.
Schmitt has still added 13.3% of walks, but we’re out here looking for Schmitt to add no base hits. A walk would be fine. However, Bergert hasn’t walked a single batter to begin the season.
That said, Schmitt has a .125 BABIP over the last 30 days against righties. He’s also hit a 0% barrel percentage and 50% of ground balls against righties in the previous month. It’s hard to count on those numbers.
The Pick
Consider taking Schmitt’s under in hits using our AI Model.
MLB Pick: Casey Schmitt Under .5 Hits (+105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Athletics
Tuesday, June 03, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
The AI Model thinks JJ Bleday will finish tonight’s game with .579 hits. However, he was recently in Triple-A and was just called up again. His prop is at .5 with the under at +110. That’s a steal.
JJ Bleday Is Back In The Bigs!
The Athletics weren’t happy with the production of JJ Bleday and sent him down to Triple-A. However, yesterday, Bleday is recalled and will likely be inserted right back into the lineup.
Ultimately, he’s hit a .128 ISO and wOBA of .202 against his last 42 righties as a left-handed batter. Tonight, he’ll take on Pablo Lopez, who has allowed a .068 ISO and wOBA of .304 to his last 64 lefties.
Those 64 lefties have also struck out 26.6% of the time and have added a .304 wOBA. Lopez has dominated lefties, and Bleday has been really bad against righties. Bleday has struck out 31% of the time against righties in the last 30 days before he was demoted.
The Pick
I’m taking Bleday to go Under .5 hits. He’s just not producing at the Major League level and will now take on a premier starting pitcher.
MLB Pick: JJ Bleday Under .5 Hits (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, June 03, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
The AI Model believes Michael Conforto will add .474 hits in tonight’s game for the Dodgers. Yet, his prop is at .5, with the under at +100. It would be ideal to fade Conforto using our Model.
Conforto Keeps Struggling!
Michael Conforto used to be a middle-of-the-order bat. Now, he’s batting 8th for the Dodgers while hitting a .096 ISO and wOBA of .275 against righties over the last 30 days.
He’s even struck out more than 23% of the time during that stretch.
Ultimately, he’s in line to face Tylor Megill of the Mets. Megill hasn’t been great against lefties over the last 30 days. Yet, he’s still held lefties to a .063 ISO and wOBA of .280 throughout the season.
The only consistent blemish for Megill against lefties is the high walks. But Conforto can walk, and we’d be happy. We’re looking for Conforto to go under .5 hits. A walk would be completely fine.
The Pick
Grab Conforto to add below .5 hits in tonight’s ball game. Â
MLB Pick: Michael Conforto Under .5 Hits (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
