We’ve got another full slate of MLB games on the agenda tonight. That said, I’m looking for some big underdog plays for you to cash at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Using the AI Model and the odds provided by by Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review), I’ve found three bets with a ton of value. I shared those below.
Atlanta Braves vs. Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, July 29, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
The Atlanta Braves are expected to earn a 5.1-4.2 win over the Kansas City Royals tonight. However, the Braves are +106 on the moneyline and listed as underdogs. The Braves are a good buy spot.
Could a Change of Scenery Help?
The Atlanta Braves traded for Erick Fedde last week. He’ll make his Atlanta debut tonight after being completely terrible with the St. Louis Cardinals.
Don’t expect him to get deep into this game. But a change of scenery and less pressure could help Fedde get back to being at least a mediocre pitcher.
After all, he’s added 45.6% of grounders and has allowed only 21.1% of line drives over the last month. He should improve his numbers if that continues.
On the other hand, Seth Lugo will pitch, fresh off a multi-year extension. We’ve seen this time and time again. A player who signs an extension during the season gets a little comfortable and doesn’t perform to expectations after earning a big contract.
Plus, the Braves have collectively hit a .198 ISO against righties over the last month, and Lugo has struggled poorly against lefties during that same stretch. That said, let’s give the Braves’ moneyline a chance tonight while priced around +106.
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, July 29, 2025 – 7:40 PM ET at American Family Field
The AI Model suggests the Chicago Cubs will defeat the Milwaukee Brewers, 4.7-4.1. Yet, the Cubs are -102 and slight underdogs on the road against the Brewers. Grab the Cubbies for tonight’s game!
Milwaukee’s Lineup Isn’t Scary!
The Milwaukee Brewers have just three batters who have hit an ISO of better than .148 over the last 30 days against righties. As a matter of fact, the lineup will likely have more righties than lefties, despite facing Colin Rea, who is a righty.
Meanwhile, Rea is a right-handed pitcher who has held his last 41 righties to a .103 ISO and wOBA of .186. He’s been tremendous against righties, which should help him tonight.
On the other hand, Quinn Priester will pitch for the Brewers. He’s got a high rate of strikeouts over the last month. However, the right-hander has also allowed a .268 ISO and wOBA of .376 to his previous 45 righties.
Seiya Suzuki matches up really well. The Cubs also have righties like Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Matt Shaw, who could all take advantage of Priester.
I’m siding with the Cubs, thanks to the AI Model and the -102 pricing.
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Tuesday, July 29, 2025 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The AI Model believes the Rangers will escape with a 4.2-4.0 win over the Angels on the road. Yet, you can find the Rangers at +106 on the moneyline right now. That’s a valuable play.
Wait! Patrick Corbin Is Good Again?
The Texas Rangers will send out Patrick Corbin for tonight’s game. The lefty veteran has held his last 117 batters to a .099 ISO and wOBA of .293 and has struck out close to 24% of batters over the previous month.
Meanwhile, he’s set to face an Angels lineup that has hit a .125 ISO and wOBA of .289 over the last 30 days.
On the other hand, the Angels will pitch Yusei Kikuchi. He’s another great arm, yet he’s struggled against righties over the last month. He’s given up a .175 ISO and wOBA of .363 to his previous 89 righties and will likely face a lineup with eight righties in it.
The Rangers certainly have better matchups across the board. So let’s ride with them at +106.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
