With a full slate on the horizon, I’ve added three underdog plays to consider for tonight’s games in the MLB.
The Picks
- Phillies -1.5 (+115)
- Mets ML (+110)
- Rays -1.5 (+140)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Thursday, June 19, 2025 – 6:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park
First, the AI Model likes the Phillies to add a one-run win over the Marlins. That said, the Phillies are sitting at +115 MLB odds at -1.5 on the road. There’s value with the Phillies to win by at least two runs with the runline being at plus-money.
Never Count On The Marlins!
The Marlins will run it back with Edward Cabrera. He’s a righty who has walked 11.1% of batters over the last 30 days. In addition, he’s also given up a .155 ISO and wOBA of .336 against his first 233 batters this season.
Cabrera has been alright at times, but he’s facing a Phillies lineup that makes right-handers work. If he can’t get strikeouts, it’ll be a long night for Cabrera.
Conversely, Cristopher Sanchez will pitch for the Phillies. The lefty has limited his last 129 batters to a .060 ISO and wOBA of .288 with nearly 50% of ground balls. The strikeouts are low against righties, but overall, he’s had a lot of success this season for the Phillies.
Trust Sanchez and take the Phillies at -1.5 (+115) to start the night.
MLB Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, June 19, 2025 – 7:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
The AI Model believes the Mets will stun the Braves with a 4.5-3.8 win. The Mets are on a five-game losing streak and will be motivated to leave Atlanta with at least one win.
Can Clay Holmes Shut Down The Braves?
Clay Holmes only went five innings for the Mets against the Rays last time out. He was feeling a little fatigued, so the Mets played it safe.
However, it doesn’t seem to be that big of a deal. He’s in line to make his next start tonight for the Mets.
He’ll face a Braves lineup that has only hit a .138 ISO and wOBA of .311 over the last 30 days against righties. Holmes has limited his first 323 batters to a .128 ISO and wOBA of .293 with nearly 53% of ground balls induced.
On the flip side, Spencer Strider will get the call. He’s an elite pitcher who has shown promise over the last few starts. However, he’s still allowed a .205 ISO and wOBA of .323 to his first 129 batters. The Mets have hit righties well, too. They’ve added a .230 ISO and wOBA of .355 against righties using their projected lineup over the last 30 days.
Rock with the Mets at +110.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, June 19, 2025 – 7:35 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
The AI Model thinks Tampa Bay will add a .9-run win over the Orioles at home tonight. Meanwhile, you can get the Rays at -1.5 (+140) on the runline. The AI Model thinks the Rays will win this game by nearly one run. But if we can get +140 for them to win by two runs, it’s a no-brainer.
Can Charlie Morton Keep It Up?
The Baltimore Orioles will throw Charlie Morton tonight. He’s a right-handed veteran pitcher who has held his last 91 batters to a .089 ISO and wOBA of .315.
However, he’s still allowed a .207 ISO and wOBA of .368 against his first 151 lefties this season. He’s also allowed a .363 wOBA to 286 batters this year.
Morton has been better lately, but it’s hard to imagine his success will continue against the Rays. After all, the Rays’ projected lineup has hit a .361 wOBA against righties over the last month. The lineup has also added 11.2% of walks and has struck out below 22% of the time.
On the flip side, Drew Rasmussen will battle for the Orioles. The right-hander has been much more consistent, holding his first 284 batters to a .117 ISO and wOBA of .261.
There’s some quality power in the Orioles’ lineup, but I’d rather rely on Rasmussen than Morton tonight.
Ride the Rays at -1.5 (+140) using our AI Model.
MLB Pick: Rays -1.5 (+140) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
