There are so many exciting matchups in the NBA tonight. Here are three bets that our computers love for this 11-game slate. Which games are you tailing?
Picks Summary
- Pistons-Hawks Under 244.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Grizzlies-Thunder Under 228.5 (-110) at Unibet
- Nets -4 (-110) at Unibet
Detroit Pistons vs. Atlanta Hawks
Monday, December 18, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at State Farm Arena
Our AI Model believes the Pistons and Hawks will combine for 236 points in this game. The total is at 244.5 at Caesars, so the Under is the value play in this game.
Detroit’s Poor Form
Most of the time, the play of the game is to back whoever is playing the Pistons. Detroit has gone 2-24 on the season and is on one of the worst losing streaks that the NBA has ever seen.
The Pistons have scored only 106.3 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also turned the ball over 16.6% of the time and have an effective field goal percentage of 51.6%. While the Hawks aren’t elite defensively, they’ll at least keep the Pistons away from the foul line.
Meanwhile, the Hawks will have their way offensively. Most teams have against the Pistons. However, the Hawks won’t dominate the offensive glass and earn second chances. The Pistons have held teams to 26% offensive rebounds this season.
Without second chances, it’s going to be hard for the Hawks to push this game Over the total with Detroit playing so poorly offensively.
Let’s grab the Under at -110 betting odds in this game.
NBA Pick: Under 244.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Monday, December 18, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at Paycom Center
The AI Model suggests the total will reach 220 for the Grizzlies-Thunder matchup. However, oddsmakers have a total of 228.5 at UniBet. The Under is also the bet for this NBA game.
Offensive Mismatch
Memphis is currently ranked 29th in points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies have also shot a 51% effective field goal percentage, which is also 29th in the NBA. On top of that, the Grizzlies have one of the lowest free throw rates in the NBA and turn the ball over nearly 15% of the time.
That’s not good news, with the Thunder averaging 16.5% of turnovers per game. Oklahoma City ranks No. 1 in the NBA in turnover percentage.
The Thunder have also held teams to a 51.9% effective field goal percentage, which is fourth in the NBA. Therefore, Memphis will have a tough time scoring consistently tonight.
On the other hand, the Thunder are a much better offense. They’ll see the foul line often. However, the Thunder won’t attack the glass for second chances and is still facing a Memphis defense that has performed at an above-average level. The Grizzlies rank 10th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions.
That should be enough to keep the Thunder in check. Let’s grab the Under. I’m with the AI Model here.
NBA Pick: Under 228.5 (-110) at Unibet
Brooklyn Nets vs. Utah Jazz
Monday, December 18, 2023 – 09:00 PM EDT at Delta Center
Our AI Model believes the Nets will earn a 117-112 win over the Jazz tonight. With Brooklyn at -4, there’s some value against the spread. Personally, I believe the Nets should be favored more. We’ll talk about it below.
Utah’s Struggles
The Utah Jazz have one of the worst defenses in the NBA. The Jazz have allowed nearly 120 points per 100 possessions while allowing a 56.6% effective field goal percentage. Utah isn’t good at forcing turnovers and is average on the defensive glass.
The only thing the Jazz do well is limit foul shots. However, the Nets don’t even get to the foul line much and still earn 117.9 points per 100 possessions.
Brooklyn has nailed a 55.1% effective field goal percentage. The Nets have also earned 29.5 offensive rebounds and continue to limit turnovers. That should be good enough to put points on the board consistently tonight.
Meanwhile, the Jazz have only scored 110.6 points per 100 possessions. They’re 26th or worse in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and points per 100 possessions. While the Nets aren’t a major turnover team on defense, the Nets should at least force the Jazz into some tough looks.
The Jazz are mighty on the offensive glass. However, the Nets have also allowed only 26.6% of rebounds on the defensive end. Therefore, the Jazz will struggle on the glass and rarely get quality looks.
Take the Nets here.
NBA Pick: Nets -4 (-110) at Unibet
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
