Since there are only three games on tonight’s NBA slate, I asked the AI Model for its best bet for each game. Here’s what it came up with.
Picks Summary
- Hornets-76ers Over 216 (-110)
- Bucks +9 (-110)
- Thunder -1 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Charlotte Hornets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Friday, December 20, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Wells Fargo Center
The AI Model believes the Hornets and 76ers will combine for 219 points tonight. However, Bet365 has set the total for this game at 216. With a three-point difference, the over is clearly the play.
Second Chances Will Be Key!
The Charlotte Hornets aren’t scoring at a super high rate. They’ve added just 109.6 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also shot just a 51.5% effective field goal percentage.
However, the Hornets have gained 32.2% of offensive rebounds, which ranks third in the NBA. This will be helpful against a Philadelphia defense that allows 28.7% of offensive rebounds.
With added second chances, the Hornets should score at a solid rate tonight.
Taking Advantage At The Foul Line
The Philadelphia 76ers have also been poor at shooting the ball. They’ve added a 51.4% effective field goal percentage and have scored only 108.6 points per 100 possessions.
But a matchup against the Hornets should help the 76ers break out. After all, the Hornets have allowed 116.5 points per 100 possessions and foul at a super high rate.
Meanwhile, the 76ers get to the foul line at a top-five rate in the NBA. They’ll earn lots of points with the time stopped. That’ll help the over, too.
Let’s ride with the Over 216 at -110 NBA odds in this game. Thank the AI Model when it hits!
NBA Pick: Over 216 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Friday, December 20, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Our AI Model thinks the Bucks will fall to the Cavaliers 116-108. However, the Bucks are +9 at top sportsbooks. They’d still win against the spread if they lost by eight. Let’s take Milwaukee here.
Fresh Off an NBA Cup!
The Milwaukee Bucks are fresh off an NBA Cup Championship. However, Damian Lillard has already been ruled out for this game with a calf injury.
Without Lillard, the Bucks will surely be shorthanded. However, the Bucks still have a ton of really good scoring options.
After all, Milwaukee has added a 57.5% effective field goal percentage and has scored 115 points per 100 possessions.
Milwaukee’s Defense Will Play a Role
The Milwaukee Bucks have held opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 53.3%. This will be key, especially since the Cavaliers have shot an effective field goal percentage of 59.5%.
If the Bucks are able to limit Cleveland’s shooting, they’ll make this a game, even without Lillard.
Stick with the Bucks at +9. This line has dropped too much at this point.
NBA Pick: Bucks +9 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat
Friday, December 20, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Kaseya Center
The AI Model suggests the Thunder will add a 110-107 win on the road tonight. The Thunder are only -1 at Caesars, meaning you’ll want to back Oklahoma City here.
Rebounding From The NBA Cup Loss
The Oklahoma City Thunder lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in the NBA Cup Championship. Now, they’ll return to the floor for a regular season matchup against the Miami Heat tonight.
The Thunder have scored 116.2 points per 100 possessions, and their offense has also turned the ball over just 11.8% of the time.
Ultimately, the Thunder won’t dominate the glass or even get to the foul line much on offense. But they’ll get good looks and protect the ball. That counts for something.
The Thunder Still Have The Best Defense
Remember that the Oklahoma City Thunder are still the best defense in the NBA. They have limited teams to 104.4 points per 100 possessions, and opponents have shot just an effective field goal percentage of 50.2%.
Unlike the Thunder, the Heat won’t get good looks. It’s also more likely that the Thunder add a higher rate of turnovers than the Heat are used to. The Thunder have gained 19.1% of turnovers, while the Heat have given up just 12.9%. If Oklahoma City can force more takeaways, the Thunder will have this game in the bag.
Let’s roll with the Thunder at -1.
NBA Pick: Thunder -1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
