Our edition of NBA computer picks for February 7 has three bets from the AI Model ready for tonight’s slate! Which plays are you tailing at the top online betting sites?
The AI Model has been red-hot recently so let’s get into it and break down the NBA odds.
Picks Summary
- Hornets +7 (-110)
- Pelicans-Clippers Over 229 (-110)
- Pistons-Kings Under 242 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Toronto Raptors vs. Charlotte Hornets
Wednesday, February 07, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center
Our AI Model believes the Raptors will only defeat the Hornets by two points. With Charlotte at +7 via Caesars Sportsbook, the value is certainly on the Hornets at home.
The Hornets have just ten wins on the resume. But it’s quite possible they can earn another one tonight, at home, against a Raptors team with just 17 wins.
The Hornets are a pathetic defense, allowing 122.5 points per 100 possessions with an effective field goal percentage of 58.6%.
Below Average
However, the Raptors have only scored 115 points per 100 possessions and are below average in most offensive categories. Toronto could limit turnovers against Charlotte but don’t expect many offensive rebounds or foul shot attempts for the Raptors.
On the other hand, the Hornets won’t get to the foul line much. However, the offense, even without LaMelo Ball, should have room to operate.
The Pick
The Raptors are below average in points per 100 possessions, effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and defensive rebounding. Charlotte should still have successful possessions and some big drives against the Raptors.
Any NBA team would against this Raptors defense. At +7, the Hornets are the play. They’ll stick around in this game and could potentially win outright.
NBA Pick: Hornets +7 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Wednesday, February 07, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
The AI Model suggests the Pelicans and Clippers will combine for 231 points. With the Caesars line sitting at 229, there’s some real value on the Over 229 in tonight’s matchup.
The New Orleans Pelicans have Zion Williamson listed as questionable. If he plays, that would certainly help the Over hit for the Pelicans and Clippers.
Top-Ten at the Charity Stripe
The Pelicans have scored 118.1 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also shot a respectable 56.1% effective field goal percentage. Beyond that, the Pelicans have a top-ten rate at the foul line and have earned nearly 28% of offensive rebounds.
The Pelicans might not get the easiest of looks against the Clippers. But they’ll earn second chances, with the Clippers allowing 28.1% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
Meanwhile, the Clippers are the best offense in the NBA, scoring a league-best 122.4 points per 100 possessions.
Los Angeles has also shot an effective field goal percentage of 57.9% and has added a 21.7 free throw rate.
The Pick
There isn’t a single thing the Clippers do poorly on offense. They’re in the top 15 in every major category and should still have success against a Pelicans defense that has ultimately been really good.
There’s just no stopping this Clippers offense right now. They most recently added 149 points against the Hawks on the road.
Let’s back the AI Model and take the Over 229.
NBA Pick: Over 229 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Detroit Pistons vs. Sacramento Kings
Wednesday, February 07, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
The AI Model likes the Under 242 for tonight’s matchup between the Pistons and Kings. The Model believes the Kings and Pistons will combine for 241 points, which is an entire point lower than the line at Caesars Sportsbook.
The Detroit Pistons haven’t performed well offensively this year. The Pistons have only averaged 111.2 points per 100 possessions, with nearly 16% of turnovers.
Detroit’s turnover percentage of 15.7% is 29th in the NBA. They can’t even hold on to the ball to get good looks from the field.
Creating Turnovers
While the Kings typically allow high-quality looks with their defense, Sacramento is good enough at forcing turnovers and rarely allows offensive rebounds.
If the Pistons miss shots and turn the ball over, the Kings will run away with this game and not allow the Pistons to score at such a high rate.
After all, the Kings have allowed just 24.8% of offensive rebounds this season. That’s second-best in the NBA right now.
On the other hand, the Kings should be better offensively. They’ve shot a 56.6% effective field goal percentage and likely don’t need to worry about turnovers, with the Pistons ranking dead last in defensive turnovers.
The Pick
But while the Kings will get some quality looks, the misses will be cleaned up by the Pistons. Detroit has held teams to a 26.3% offensive rebounding rate this season.
The Kings could run away with this game. But it takes two to tango to hit the Over.
Let’s take the Under 242. I’m with the AI Model here.
NBA Pick: Under 242 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
