With a ton of exciting NBA basketball on the slate tonight, we went to our computers looking for some plays. There were a bunch of bets that made sense, but we narrowed it all down to our favorite three. Tail the AI Model and win some cash tonight!
Picks Summary
- Cavaliers +4 (-110) at Bet365
- Hawks -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Mavericks/Lakers Under 243.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Wednesday, January 17, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
Our AI Model believes the Cavaliers will only lose to the Bucks by two points in a 120-118 final. With the Cavaliers sitting at +4, Cleveland has the value against the spread at home.
The Bucks are one of the best offenses in the NBA. They’ve added 121.8 points per 100 possessions and continue to get to the foul line while shooting a 58.1% effective field goal percentage.
The only area where Milwaukee has struggled has been on the offensive glass. But here’s the thing. Cleveland has limited teams to 112.3 points per 100 possessions and an effective field goal percentage of 53.2%. They’ve even earned nearly 15% of turnovers per game. The Bucks will get to the foul line consistently. But that’s about all they’re good for against Cleveland.
Although the Cavaliers aren’t nearly as good offensively, they’ll be able to limit turnovers and get more shots up. Milwaukee has only added 11.5% of turnovers per game this season, which is the worst rate in the NBA.
The Cavaliers have also hauled in 28.7% of offensive rebounds per game this season. Although the Bucks escaped the Cavaliers earlier this year, 119-111, the Cavaliers have some advantages in this game, especially on the defensive end. Let’s back the Cavaliers to at least cover against the Bucks tonight at +4. The AI Model is onto something!
NBA Pick: Cavaliers +4 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Orlando Magic vs. Atlanta Hawks
Wednesday, January 17, 2024 – 07:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena
The AI Model suggests the Hawks will earn a 118-114 win over the Magic tonight. With the Hawks sitting at -3.5, the AI Model believes Atlanta will sneak in a home cover against Orlando tonight.
The Orlando Magic aren’t a huge threat offensively this year. Orlando has added just 113.1 points per 100 possessions with an effective field goal percentage of 53.2%. The Magic have turned the ball over plenty of times this year, and with the Hawks adding 14.4% of turnovers per game, Atlanta should have success forcing turnovers tonight.
The Magic are good at earning offensive rebounds and getting to the foul line at a high rate. However, while the Magic will earn second chances, their chances of getting to the foul line at a higher rate is low against a top-ten Hawks defense in free throw rate.
Meanwhile, Orlando is terrific defensively, holding teams to 112.1 points per 100 possessions. However, the Hawks have more to offer offensively, scoring 118.8 points per 100 possessions. Atlanta should see the foul line more often and be just as effective on the offensive glass.
Orlando will limit some opportunities for second chances. But as long as Atlanta stays aggressive, they’ll add enough points at the foul line to escape their home game against the Magic and pull off the cover.
NBA Pick: Hawks -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Wednesday, January 17, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
The AI Model suggests the Mavericks and Lakers will combine for 240 points in tonight’s matchup. However, the total at Caesars is at 243.5. Therefore, there’s a small cushion for the Under.
The Mavericks are expecting Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to both play in tonight’s game. That would be helpful, knowing that the Mavericks have scored 119.1 points per 100 possessions despite a lot of lineup changes this season. Dallas isn’t going to earn second chances on the offensive glass and likely won’t see the foul line often, with the Lakers holding teams to a 17.1 free throw rate.
However, the Mavericks will limit turnovers, which will still allow them to get a lot of shots off. They’ve also scored 119.1 points per 100 possessions and have shot an effective field goal percentage of 56.5. That can’t go unnoticed.
On the other hand, the Lakers are a below-average offense, scoring 114.1 points per 100 possessions. They get good looks from the floor but don’t do the other effort plays like adding offensive rebounds and limiting turnovers. Although the Lakers are good at getting to the foul line, the Mavericks are just as good at limiting foul shots.
Let’s back the Under 243.5 in this game at -110 betting odds. Neither team will approach 120.
NBA Pick: Under 243.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
