The OddsTrader computer predictions have given us many winners in the NBA season, and they’re still looking to provide us with some more profit with tonight’s eight-game slate. I’ve added three bets via the model that I also approve of.
Picks Summary
- Cavaliers +6.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Thunder-Spurs Under 241(-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Hawks-Warriors Under 233.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Wednesday, January 24, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Our AI Model believes the Cavaliers will only lose to the Bucks 120-115. With the spread at +6.5 for the Cavaliers, Cleveland looks to have the edge per the model.
The Milwaukee Bucks fired Adrian Griffin after starting the season 30-13. I don’t think any of us saw this coming. But it sounds like Giannis Antetokounmpo was the one who jumpstarted this process.
After Griffin was fired, Doc Rivers is the top contender to be named the head coach for the team moving forward, though as of publishing time, nothing has been officially confirmed. Rivers was a consultant to Griffin and the Bucks, so he’s in the know about this Bucks team.
Still, this firing was in poor taste. Milwaukee has fired multiple head coaches in the last year, and it just hasn’t made much sense.
Milwaukee’s Lackluster Defense
The Bucks have struggled defensively, allowing 117.8 points per 100 possessions. That’s ultimately because of their inability to force turnovers. The Bucks have added only 11.4% of turnovers this season, which is the worst rate in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the Bucks have been much better offensively, adding 121.2 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks should be able to get to the foul line at a strong rate. However, the Cavaliers have limited teams to 111.3 points per 100 possessions and have held teams to a 52.8% effective field goal percentage.
Milwaukee is also good at earning turnovers and should win the turnover battle in this matchup. Beyond that, the Cavaliers will do a very good at job keeping the Bucks away from second-chance points and offensive rebounds. That should be the difference in the game.
Therefore, I’ll ride the Cavaliers at +6.5 in this game.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers +6.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
Wednesday, January 24, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
The AI Model suggests the Thunder and Spurs will combine for 239 points in tonight’s ESPN clash. However, Caesars has a total of 241, implying the Under has some value.
The Oklahoma City Thunder won’t have a problem scoring the ball. This team has scored 121 points per 100 possessions and has added an effective field goal percentage of 57.9%. Oklahoma City has even limited turnovers to 12.1%.
However, the Thunder won’t dominate the offensive glass and likely won’t see themselves at the foul line as much as in a typical game. The Spurs are only good for limiting teams at the foul line defensively.
Don’t Rely on The Spurs
However, to hit an Over bet, you typically need both teams to cooperate. The Spurs won’t be that team. San Antonio has scored just 110.7 points per 100 possessions and has added a 53.3% effective field goal percentage. The Spurs are horrible on the offensive glass and rarely get to the foul line.
Meanwhile, the Thunder rank 6th in points per 100 possessions defensively and second in the NBA in effective field goal percentage. Oklahoma City is also tremendous at forcing turnovers on the defensive end.
That’s why I’m comfortable backing the Under in this matchup. Oklahoma City will have a field day, but the Spurs won’t. A blowout loss calls for the Under. I’m with the AI Model here.
NBA Pick: Under 241 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Golden State Warriors
Wednesday, January 24, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center
The AI Model suggests the Hawks and Warriors will finish with 232 points in the game. However, Caesars, again, has a bigger number of 233.5, implying the Under is the way to go in this one.
The Golden State Warriors haven’t played a game in eight days after Dejan Milojevic, one of their assistants, tragically passed away due to a heart attack. They had postponed previous games for the Warriors to grieve their loss, but they’ll be back in action tonight.
The Warriors could be rusty after missing multiple games. They could also be careless with the ball. The Hawks have earned 14.3% of turnovers this season and should grab plenty against a Warriors team that turns the ball over almost 15% of the time.
On the other hand, the Hawks are typically dominant on the offensive glass. However, the Warriors have only allowed 27% of offensive rebounds. When the Hawks struggled to earn second chances of their poor shots, that will hurt their chances of pushing the total Over.
The Hawks will earn some points at the foul line. But they won’t be shooting at a very high rate from the field, with the Warriors allowing a 54.9% effective field goal percentage.
I’m with the AI Model. The circumstance and analytics point to the Under.
NBA Pick: Under 233.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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