The AI Model is backing many massive underdogs tonight. After looking at the data, I’m in agreement. Here’s a look at three computer picks for January 31.
Picks Summary
- Wizards +12 (-110) at Bet365
- Mavericks-Timberwolves Over 220.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Blazers +10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Washington Wizards
Wednesday, January 31, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena
Our AI Model believes the Clippers will only beat the Wizards 123-113. However, Bet365 has Washington as a +12 underdog. It might be painful to watch, but the AI Model believes the Wizards can hang on to cover against one of the hottest Western Conference teams in the NBA.
The Los Angeles Clippers are on the fourth game of their road trip. They won the first two but lost to the Cavaliers, 118-108 last time out. Now they’ll take on Washington on the road.
The Clippers should win this game easily. They’ll dominate the offensive glass and get some good looks from the floor. But ultimately, being on the road for this long, guys get fatigued and start to miss shots when they’re open. That’s likely going to happen tonight. Plus, the Wizards are at least earning an above-average rate of turnovers and have held teams to a free throw rate of 20.
While Washington isn’t an elite offense, they’ve still shot a 54.6% effective field goal percentage and will have chances on the offensive glass, with the Clippers allowing 28% of offensive rebounds.
The Clippers will likely win, but I still think it’ll finish with a single-digit deficit. Back the Wizards to cover the spread.
NBA Pick: Wizards +12 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Wednesday, January 31, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Target Center
The AI Model suggests the Mavericks and Timberwolves will combine for 223 points. However, Bet365 has a total of just 220.5. Therefore, the Over is the play, despite Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving not playing.
The Dallas Mavericks have a long injury report tonight. Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II, and Luka Doncic will all miss tonight’s game. Meanwhile, Dante Exum and Derrick Jones Jr. are questionable for tonight’s game. That’s an entire starting lineup that could miss tonight’s game against Minnesota. It’s ultimately why the Mavericks are 14-point underdogs in this game.
The Mavericks are still really good at limiting turnovers and have added top-ten rates in points per 100 possessions and effective field goal percentage.
It’s unlikely that Dallas dominates the offensive glass, but the Mavericks will still typically get good looks from the floor. This is an opportunity for other guys to step up and earn more minutes in games where Doncic and Irving are playing.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are an average offense, turning the ball over 15.3% of the time. They’re also not super impressive on the offensive glass, averaging 26.2% of offensive rebounds per game this season. However, the Mavericks have allowed 29.3% of offensive rebounds and have given up an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%.
Who needs offensive rebounds when you’re getting quality looks every time down the floor? I’ll take the Over at -110 betting odds with the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Over 220.5 (-110) at Bet365
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Wednesday, January 31, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
The AI Model suggests Portland will only lose to the Bucks by nine points, 123-114. The Blazers are currently 10.5-point underdogs via Caesars.
The Milwaukee Bucks have always been a top offense in the NBA. This year, it’s no different. The Bucks have scored 120.9 points per 100 possessions and have added an effective field goal percentage of 57.6%.
The Bucks have even limited turnovers to 12.5% and have added a 23.5 free throw rate, which is one of the top rates in the NBA. Milwaukee isn’t active on the offensive glass but could get more opportunities with the Blazers allowing 29% of offensive rebounds.
However, it’s also likely that Portland will add more turnovers defensively against the Bucks, despite Milwaukee being one of the best teams at limiting turnovers this season. The Blazers have added 14.8% of turnovers per game this season.
Meanwhile, Portland’s a terrible offense. But the Blazers have also added 29.8% of offensive rebounds and should win on the glass. The glass is an effort thing and with the place sold out for Damian Lillard’s return, the Blazers will bring the effort off of the energy in the building.
The Bucks have to transition with a new head coach and play with an emotional Damian Lillard. That doesn’t sound so appealing. I’ll back the Blazers at +10.5, knowing the energy in the building will be the best Portland has seen all season long.
NBA Pick: Blazers +10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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