The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s NBA slate, so let’s look at three games that interest me: Pistons vs. Magic, Hornets vs. Raptors and Pacers vs. Spurs.
My recommendations are backed by my handicapping and OddsTrader’s Computer AI.
Picks Summary
- Pistons-Magic Over 218 (-110)
- Raptors -7 (-105)
- Pacers-Spurs Under 243.5 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic
Sunday, March 03, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Kia Center
Our computers project a high-scoring game, and I agree. I therefore recommend the “over” for this game.
Orlando’s Strong Scoring Form
The total for this game is too low in view of Orlando’s scoring potential, which has been evident in its most recent games. My point here is that Orlando’s defense will have to be too unrealistically perfect for the “under” to hit.
The Magic have scored 110+ points in four of their last six games. This trend is impressive because they’ve sustained it even against very strong defenses. For example, recently, they scored 113 points against the Thunder, even though the Thunder rank fourth in defensive rating.
A defense like Detroit’s, which ranks 27th in defensive rating, will be easily exploitable for Orlando’s offense.
Detroit’s Defense
The Pistons’ defense is porous both inside and outside the arc. They lack rim protection, allowing their opponents to make the seventh-most field goals per game within five feet of the basket. But their perimeter defense is also poor.
While it is true that the Pistons don’t allow many three-pointers made per game, this is merely because their awful rim protection makes it so easy for opponents to score inside on them. The fact that they rank 23rd at limiting opposing three-point efficiency says what you need to know about their ability to contest opposing three-point shots.
Orlando’s Offense
Orlando is well-suited to score a lot today because it is the type of team that wants to thrive especially at the basket. In addition to the more efficient scoring of center Wendell Carter, Orlando boasts a collection of guards and forwards who ably drive at the basket.
Versatility plays a key role, as the Magic feature ever-developing studs like Paolo Banchero, who is effective from behind the arc but also has the size to dominate inside and the mobility to attack. Such versatile players will drive a defense like Detroit’s, which is incessantly trying to patch up developing wounds, crazy.
Detroit’s Offense
The Pistons won’t have to do too much scoring for the “over” to hit. With the Magic comfortably reaching 120 points, we’ll only need the Pistons to score 100, which is over 12 points below their season average.
Orlando’s most recent contests have proven that its opponents can flourish from behind the arc.
Expect Detroit to take advantage with the likes of Cade Cunningham, who shot 44.4 percent from deep in the last month.
NBA Pick: Over 218 (-110) at Bet365
Charlotte Hornets vs. Toronto Raptors
Sunday, March 03, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena
Our computers indicate that the Raptors will win in a high-scoring affair. I agree, and I favor a play on the Raptors.
Charlotte’s Defense
The Hornets nearly have the NBA’s worst defense: they rank second-to-last in terms of defensive rating.
Their bad defense has been on display lately, as they enter today’s game on a three-game losing streak during which they’ve allowed 118.3 points per game.
This is a team that lacks reliable rim protection but that is also porous from behind the arc, as evident in its last game when Philadelphia made 19 three-pointers against them.
Toronto’s Offense
Toronto is well-built to take advantage of Charlotte’s defense because it is two-dimensional. On the season, the Raptors have primarily opted to attack inside, but they were also willing to attempt 45 three-pointers in their last game.
This is a great bounce-back spot for Toronto against a bad defense. The Raptors were off in their last game, but field various guys who are normally solid scorers.
RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, for example, are converting over 40% of their three-point attempts. Both guys also pose threats attacking inside. These two will do the most to expose Charlotte’s defensive weaknesses inside and behind the arc.
Charlotte Can’t Keep Pace
Toronto is going to overwhelm Charlotte with its scoring talent. The Hornets regularly struggle to reach 100 points, including against bad defenses like Portland.
While the “over” is going to hit, it will be primarily because of Toronto’s offense.
NBA Pick: Raptors -7 (-105) at Bet365
Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Sunday, March 03, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center
Our computers project a game that will have some points to be sure, but that will remain “under” the total posted by oddsmakers. I agree with this projection. The total is simply too high.
Indiana’s Defense
In order for such an ambitious “over” to hit, both offenses are going to have to contribute a lot, but the Pacers’ defense matches up too well against San Antonio’s offense.
More than most teams, the Spurs like to shoot three-pointers. But the Pacers lead the NBA at limiting opposing wide-open three-point attempts and they rank fourth at limiting opposing open three-point attempts.
These stats indicate their ability to contest opposing three-point attempts.
But San Antonio won’t be able to rely on scoring inside because the Pacers boast Myles Turner, an excellent shot-blocker whose name has been in the running for Defensive Player of the Year.
Point Total Consideration
San Antonio is a team that often struggles to reach 110 points, as in its last two games prior to its last exceptional outing.
The Spurs will fall back to Earth against a defense that is too capable of being solidly well-rounded.
For the Pacers to hit, they’ll have to score over 130 points, which is something they’ve only done twice since the end of January, and in both games, they needed their opponent to push them.
San Antonio’s inability to threaten offensively will make it all the likelier that this game cruises to a low-point total.
NBA Pick: Under 243.5 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
