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NBA Computer Picks for November 14: Hornets Can’t Handle the Heat

Mark Williams Charlotte Hornets Washington Wizards
Mark Williams #5 of the Charlotte Hornets reacts in the third quarter during their game against the Washington Wizards. Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images/AFP

The In-Season NBA Tournament will pick up again tonight. With ten games on the slate, we’ve added three bets that the AI Model likes!

Picks Summary


Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets

Tuesday, November 14, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center


Our AI Model believes the Miami Heat will earn a five-point win against the Charlotte Hornets tonight. With the spread sitting at -3.5, the Heat have some value.

The Miami Heat struggled to begin the year. But that’s changed recently. Miami is on a five-game winning streak and is now 6-4 on the season.

The Heat still aren’t effective offensively. They’ve scored only 108.7 points per 100 possessions. However, they’ll take on a Hornets team that is dead last defensively in points per 100 possessions and effective field goal percentage. The Heat have also added a free throw rate of 21.4, which matches up well against Charlotte’s 22.8 free throw rate defensively. The Hornets are also last in that category on the defensive end.

The Matchup

Miami typically gets to the foul line at a high rate. While they’re not scoring at a high rate, they’ll more than likely get some quality looks against the Hornets. Meanwhile, Charlotte’s got the better offense. They’ve dominated the glass and have scored 114.2 points per 100 possessions. However, the Heat have held teams to 111.3 points per 100 possessions while holding teams to a 15.7 free throw rate.

Miami has also earned 17.3% of turnovers and has limited opponents to 26.6% of offensive rebounds.

Charlotte’s defense is the reason why they’re sitting at 3-6 on the season. Meanwhile, the Heat have turned their season around, scoring at least 108 points in every win during the five-game winning streak.

Let’s take the Heat to cover the 3.5 spread. The AI Model is on to something!

NBA Pick: Heat -3.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)


Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons

Tuesday, November 14, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena


Our AI Model believes the Hawks will defeat the Pistons 121-112 on the road. As a -4 favorite, there’s clear value in Atlanta.

Detroit is currently 2-9 on the season. While they’ve got some solid young depth, it’ll likely take some more years to develop. The Pistons have only scored 108.7 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also shot an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%, which is 23rd in the NBA.

Detroit can be careless with the ball and isn’t getting to the foul line at a high rate. The only good is that the Pistons have added 31.1% of offensive rebounds. But the Hawks have only allowed 26.9% of offensive rebounds this year.

Atlanta’s Defense

On the other hand, the Hawks’ offense is much better. They’re getting to the foul line at a very high rate, with a 24.6 free throw rate. Meanwhile, the Pistons have the worst defensive free throw rate in the league at 28.2.

Atlanta will earn many points at the line, so the Hawks are scoring 117.7 points per 100 possessions this year. With the Pistons rarely forcing turnovers, the Hawks should have plenty of opportunity to find good looks, earn offensive rebounds, and get to the foul line.

I’ve got the Hawks at -4.

NBA Pick: Hawks -4 (-110) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)


Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Tuesday, November 14, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center


The AI Model suggests the Mavericks and Pelicans will combine for 232 points, and Unibet is carrying a 239.5 line for this game. The Under looks to be the play in this one.

The Dallas Mavericks have one of the best offenses in the NBA. Against the Pelicans, that likely won’t change. The Mavericks have scored 122.4 points per 100 possessions while shooting a 59.1% effective field goal percentage. Dallas has also limited turnovers to 12.5%, but the Mavericks aren’t very elite on the offensive glass.

With the Pelicans allowing 116.4 points per 100 possessions, the Mavericks should have no problems scoring against the Pelicans.

However, it takes two to tango.

New Orleans Can’t Keep Up

The Pelicans are scoring just 106.7 points per 100 possessions. That’s 29th in the NBA. They’ve also hit an effective field goal percentage of 51.7% and have also added just 25% of offensive rebounds.

The best thing that New Orleans does is get to the line. However, the Mavericks have allowed a 16.1 free throw rate defensively, which is fourth-best in the NBA.

The Mavericks and Pelicans combined for 260 points in the first meeting. But I don’t think the Pelicans can keep up with that pace this time around. Let’s take the Under here.

NBA Pick: Under 239.5 (-110) at Unibet

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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