There are plenty of matchups and decisions to be made on the NBA board tonight. With 14 games on the slate, looking at the odds board can get hectic. Therefore, we got some help from our computer predictions to provide us with some of the best bets on the board. We’ve shared three.
Picks Summary
- Raptors +4.5 (-110) at BetRivers
- Grizzlies-Rockets Over 213.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Jazz -3 (-110) at Unibet
Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers
Wednesday, November 22, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Our AI Model believes the Raptors will tie 117-117 against the Pacers tonight. In basketball, there are no ties, but with the Raptors sitting at +4.5, there’s certainly value in the underdog in a tight game.
The Pacers just played yesterday, with the score exceeding 300 points. They’re probably tired at this point. They’re one of the worst defenses in the NBA. They’ve allowed 122.3 points per 100 possessions and a 56.1% effective field goal percentage. They’re bad on the glass, send teams to the foul line consistently, and don’t earn a high rate of turnovers.
While the Raptors aren’t splendid on offense either, Toronto can use their second chances to have more success scoring the basketball.
Defensive Prowess of the Raptors
Meanwhile, Indiana’s offense is the best in the NBA, but they won’t see the foul line as often against the Raptors.
Toronto is also 8th in the NBA in points per 100 possessions defensively and in the top 15 in defensive effective field goal percentage.
The Pacers won’t turn the ball over much, but those second chances will be harder to come by. The Raptors should be better on the glass in this game. Therefore, I like the Raptors to get their stops to dominate the glass to help earn a cover against the Pacers at +4.5.
NBA Pick: Raptors +4.5 (-110) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Houston Rockets
Wednesday, November 22, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Toyota Center
Our AI Model believes the Grizzlies and Rockets will combine for 226 points in tonight’s game. However, the total is currently at just 213.5 at Caesars. The Over is the play!
The Grizzlies haven’t had it easy offensively, but the total for this game is a bit too low at this point.
The Grizzlies are shooting an effective field goal percentage of just 50.7% and haven’t been getting to the foul line often. However, Memphis is typically good on the offensive glass and should limit turnovers against a Rockets defense that has earned under 15% of turnovers this season.
Houston’s Offense
Meanwhile, the Rockets are an average offense, scoring 114 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also added a 54.7% effective field goal percentage, which is 15th in the NBA.
While the Rockets don’t get to the foul line often, that could change with the Grizzlies fouling at a very high rate. Memphis is also below average on the offensive glass. However, the one thing that should help the Over is Memphis’ turnover ability. They can earn turnovers at a high rate and then score some easy transition buckets to help the Over.
Let’s take the Over at 213.5. That’s too low of a total at this point.
NBA Pick: Over 213.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Utah Jazz vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Wednesday, November 22, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
The AI Model suggests the Jazz will defeat the Trail Blazers, 118-111 as 3-point favorites. That has caught our attention!
The Utah Jazz already defeated the Portland Trail Blazers, 115-99, on November 14. Now about ten days later, we’ve got the same matchup. This time, the Blazers are the home team. But I still expect the same result.
The Jazz are tremendous on the offensive glass, adding 34.3% of offensive rebounds this season. Meanwhile, the Blazers have allowed 29% of offensive rebounds, which is 23rd-worst in the NBA. Portland has also allowed a free throw rate of 21.5 on the defensive end, which also isn’t very good.
The Trail Blazers could end up with some steals against the Jazz. They could also luck out with Utah shooting the ball poorly. But overall, Utah is effective on the glass and should see the foul line frequently enough.
Portland’s Weakness
On the other hand, Portland’s offense is the worst in the NBA. They’ve added 104.8 points per 100 possessions with an effective field goal percentage of 48.9%. These are the worst rates in the NBA.
The turnovers are also high, and the Blazers rarely get to the foul line. Although the Jazz aren’t tremendous on the defensive end, they’ll still be able to out-shoot the Blazers. Take the Jazz -3.
NBA Pick: Jazz -3 (-110) at Unibet
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
