There are plenty of awesome matchups on the NBA slate for tonight’s final group stage portion of the NBA In-Season Tournament. Here are three bets that our computers like tonight.
Picks Summary
- Hornets-Knicks Under 220 (-110) at BetRivers
- Hawks +4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Warriors-Kings Under 236.5 (-110) at Bet365
Charlotte Hornets vs. New York Knicks
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Our AI Model believes the Knicks and Hornets will combine for 217 points. However, the total is currently 220, showing that there’s some value on the Under.
New York has given up the least amount of offensive rebounds this season. Teams have averaged only 22.7% of offensive rebounds this year against the Knicks.
Therefore, most teams aren’t getting second chances at a high rate against New York. The same will happen to the Hornets in this game.
Charlotte has scored 113.3 points per 100 possessions. But they’ll be without their star player, LaMelo Ball, for this game after he injured his ankle in a previous game.
The offense will only be worse for the Hornets without Ball.
Defensive Vulnerabilities
Meanwhile, the Hornets have allowed 120.7 points per 100 possessions. Charlotte has given up a 57.4% effective field goal percentage and rarely adds turnovers to the box score.
Therefore, the Knicks will protect the ball, get good looks, and dominate the offensive glass, where they’ve earned 33.9% of offensive rebounds. Those rebounds lead to second chances and more foul-shot opportunities.
The Knicks are heavy favorites at -11.5. That’s a bit too high. The Under is the better play, knowing it takes two teams to help push any game Over the total. So we’ll roll with the Under in this game.
NBA Pick: Under 220 (-110) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Rocket Mortage FieldHouse
Our AI Model believes the Hawks and Cavaliers will tie at 116 apiece. Obviously, there’s no tying in basketball. But the model thinks this will be a tight game. With the Hawks sitting at +4.5, the value is in Atlanta.
The Atlanta Hawks are one of the best offenses in the NBA. They’ve scored 121.2 points per 100 possessions, thanks to a high offensive rebounding rate and plenty of foul shots.
The Hawks have earned 31.9% of offensive rebounds this season. With the Cavaliers giving up 29.6% of offensive rebounds, the Hawks should have their way on the offensive glass. They’ll earn plenty of second chances and see the foul line at a very high rate.
Cleveland’s Offense
On the other hand, the Cavaliers have scored just 111.7 points per 100 possessions. That’s a below-average rate and 24th in the NBA.
The Hawks will still allow some good looks, but the Cavaliers don’t typically do well finding high-quality looks. The Cavaliers have also earned just 25.6% of offensive rebounds. That won’t help their case, either.
I’ll grab the Hawks at +4.5 on the road in this group-stage tournament game.
NBA Pick: Hawks +4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
Tuesday, November 28, 2023 – 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center
The AI Model suggests the Warriors and Kings will combine for 228 points. However, the total for this game is currently at 236.5 at Bet365. The Under has the value.
History to Repeat Itself?
The Warriors and Kings have already played two games against one another this season. In the first one, Golden State added a 122-114 win. However, in the second game, the Warriors escaped with a 102-101 victory. The game was a lot closer, with fewer points. That’s what the AI Model is expecting in this game.
The Warriors are only an average offense this year. Golden State has shot a 53.3% effective field goal percentage and has scored 114.3 points per 100 possessions. That rate is 14th in the NBA.
While the Warriors are usually good on the offensive glass, the Kings have held teams to below 25% of offensive rebounds. That won’t help second chances for the Warriors.
Meanwhile, the Kings are also in the same boat as the Warriors. They’re an average offense, scoring 114.5 points per 100 possessions. Maybe the Kings will see the foul line more, with the Warriors allowing a 22.9 free throw rate. But don’t expect the Kings to get high-quality looks throughout the game.
The Under is the play. I’m with the AI Model here.
NBA Pick: Under 236.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
