There are two NBA Cup Quarterfinals matchups on the NBA betting board tonight! I asked the AI Model for its predictions on both matchups and provided the best bet for each below. Tail along! Don’t miss out on any action at the top-rated sportsbooks!
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Picks Summary
- Magic-Bucks Under 213.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Mavericks-Thunder Under 230.5 (-110) at Bet365
Orlando Magic vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tuesday, December 10, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Orlando Lost Franz Wagner!
The Orlando Magic are currently playing without Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero, their top two players. That will hurt their offense moving forward.
After all, the Magic have already scored just 111.6 points per 100 possessions and have an effective field goal percentage of only 52.7%. This offense is great at getting to the foul line, but even that should take a hit with Wagner out indefinitely.
That said, the Bucks have limited teams to a 53.7% effective field goal percentage, which ranks ninth in the NBA in defense. Beyond that, the Bucks have kept teams to 27% of offensive rebounds and a free throw rate of 18.5. These are all good enough numbers to hold to a few points tonight.
Disciplined Defense Will Go a Long Way
The only way for the Orlando Magic to compete without their top two players is by playing top-tier defense.
The Magic have done that so far this season. That’s why they’re 17-9 on the year. Ultimately, they’ve held teams to 107 points per 100 possessions, which ranks third in the NBA.
The Magic have also limited teams to a 53.6% effective field goal percentage and have forced 17.7% of turnovers. Even better, the Magic have kept teams to only 25.6% of offensive rebounds.
That’s key, especially since the Bucks have added a league-worst 21.5% of offensive rebounds this season.
Orlando should do enough defensively in this NBA Cup to keep this game within reach. Let’s grab the Under 213.5 in this game.
NBA Pick: Under 213.5 (-110) at Bet365
Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tuesday, December 10, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at Paycom Center
Our AI Model believes the Thunder and Mavericks will combine for 228 points. However, Bet365 is carrying a total of 230.5. That means the Under has the most value in tonight’s matchup.
Can Dallas Be Stopped?
The Dallas Mavericks’ offense has been very consistent this season. They’ve added 119.1 points per 100 possessions and shot a 56.8% effective field goal percentage.
Beyond that, the Mavericks have only turned the ball over 13.8% of the time and have added 27.9% of offensive rebounds with a 20.6 free throw rate.
The reality is that the Mavericks will add offensive rebounds and foul shots at a high rate. The other reality is that the Mavericks might struggle from the field more than usual.
After all, the Thunder rank No. 1 in defensive points per 100 possessions, defensive effective field goal percentage, and turnover percentage. If the Thunder can limit the Mavericks from hitting a bunch of shots, they’ll keep the Mavericks from scoring at a high rate through this game.
The Thunder Won’t Have It Easy, Either
The Oklahoma City Thunder are very good at limiting turnovers. However, they’re not so good at getting to the foul line or adding offensive rebounds. They’ll lose in those two areas.
Additionally, they’ll likely struggle to shoot the basketball, too.
The Mavericks have limited teams to 110.9 points per 100 possessions and have given up a 52.1% effective field goal percentage. Only this time, if the Thunder miss, they won’t get offensive rebounds or second chances.
They also can’t get to the foul line much and earn points that way. That’s why the best bet for this game is backing the Under. Both teams are top-10 defenses and have done a great job at limiting opponent field goal percentage. If both teams are bricking a bunch of shots, the under has a great chance of hitting.
NBA Pick: Under 230.5 (-110) at Bet365
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