This could be our final NBA article of the season!
The Oklahoma City Thunder are one win away from an NBA Championship. In addition, Indiana’s top player, Tyrese Haliburton, is injured with a calf injury. It’s up in the air if he’ll even play tonight.
Still, the Pacers are the home team and will be able to rally behind their fans. Yet, the Thunder are still the favorites on the road.
Let’s give it a closer look before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary:
- Pacers +6.5 (-108)
- Under 222 (-110)
- Kenrich Williams Over 4.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-140)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
Thursday, June 19, 2025 – 08:30 PM EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Our AI model predicts a 112-108 victory for the Thunder over the Pacers. Ultimately, that would be enough for the Thunder to hoist the trophy up tonight. However, it wouldn’t be enough to cover the 6.5-point spread.
Therefore, you’ll want to back the Pacers at +6.5 (-108) as the best bet in this game. The total is also down to 222, but our AI Model expects only 220 points tonight. The Under is also a solid play in this game.
Lastly, consider Kenrich Williams to earn 4.5 points + rebounds + assists tonight. Our Model expects him to earn 6.59 points + rebounds + assists in tonight’s Game 6 matchup.
Pacers Must Limit Turnovers At Home!
The Indiana Pacers outshot the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5 of the NBA Finals. They even earned five more rebounds in the game.
The difference was the turnovers. Indiana turned the ball over 23 times, while the Thunder turned the ball over just 11 times. This allowed the Thunder to score 32 points off turnovers, while the Pacers added only 9 points off turnovers.
In the latest home game, the Pacers and Thunder both had 16 turnovers, and in Game 3, the Pacers lost the turnover battle by just one. The Pacers need to be better with the ball in their hands in Game 6.
NBA Pick: Pacers +6.5 (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook
Can The Pacers Force Bad Shots?
The Oklahoma City Thunder don’t have the best shot-making ability. Sure, they’ve got Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but they’ve also added a 52.9% effective field goal percentage in the playoffs, which ranks 10th best in the postseason.
The Pacers need to limit turnovers to prevent the Thunder from scoring quickly. In addition, the Pacers will want to play more half-court defense and stay in front of the Thunder. They’ll cause some foul shots as long as the turnovers remain down.
Without Haliburton, it could be a challenge for the Pacers to limit turnovers. But even if he’s hurt, I’d expect Haliburton to find a way to play. His injury isn’t ideal and if it were a regular-season game, he wouldn’t play. But he usually makes the right reads and decisions when playing point guard.
They’ll need him to deliver on that. If he’s able to play his style of game, there will be fewer fastbreaks for the Thunder. In addition, the Thunder won’t allow the Pacers many easy transition buckets either if there aren’t as many turnovers on that end, either.
NBA Pick: Under 222 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Give Kenrich His Minutes!
The Thunder have given Kenrich Williams at least 10.7 minutes per game over the last two games. His usage was low in Game 5, but he still had a usage of at least 19.7% in the previous two games before Game 5.
Ultimately, Williams has hit this line in 80% of games this year. He’s also managed this line in 73% of his last 11 games against the Pacers, including the playoffs.
Williams has had at least one potential assist in three of his last four games. He’s also had eight rebound chances in the previous two games. In addition, he’s seen at least six rebound chances in three of his last six games, and he’s also attempted at least one shot in four straight games.
Williams just needs one bucket, a couple of rebounds, and an assist to hit this prop. It’s certainly doable.
NBA Pick: Kenrich Williams Over 4.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-140) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
