The New York Knicks will welcome the Indiana Pacers to Madison Square Garden for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals tonight.
The Pacers got a full week of rest and will likely be more prepared. However, the Knicks will be the home team and should feed off the energy in the Garden.
This Knicks-Pacers matchup is becoming a real rivalry. These teams played last season in the second round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs, and the Pacers escaped in Game 7. Now, the Knicks will look for revenge this year.
Our AI Model thinks the Knicks will at least get some revenge in Game 1 of this series. The AI Model thinks the Knicks will add a 114-109 win, which is a five-point margin. Meanwhile, the Knicks are -4.5 against the spread at Caesars and would cover in that scenario.
In addition, the total is expected to be 223, yet the consensus total is stuck at 224.5. The Under is the best bet if you’re looking to bet on the total for this game using the AI Model.
Finally, the AI Model thinks Obi Toppin will earn 17.94 points, rebounds, and assists. With his line at just 11.5 and the over at -125, this is a play you’ll also want to consider.
I’ll discuss why these are solid bets for tonight with my analysis below.
The Picks
- Knicks -4.5 (-105)Â
- Under 224.5 (-115)
- Obi Toppin Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Wednesday, May 21, 2025 – 8:00 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden
The Knicks Need To Defend Better!
The New York Knicks have been sloppy defensively in the playoffs.
They’ve held opponents to 111.8 points per 100 possessions and a 52% effective field goal percentage. These are average numbers in the NBA Playoffs.
In addition, the Knicks have gained 15.7% of turnovers and have limited teams to 30.1% of offensive rebounds.
The Knicks are starting to click after their Game 6 win over the Celtics. The defensive intensity was up, and they easily got behind the roaring crowd. They’ll need to be the same against this Pacers team.
The Pacers aren’t great on the offensive glass. However, they’ve shot a 59.1% effective field goal percentage to start the playoffs. If the Knicks can force more misses, they’ll be golden.
NBA Pick: Knicks -4.5 (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Can We Really Trust New York’s Offense?
While the Pacers have shot the best effective field goal percentage in the playoffs, the Knicks have certainly not.
The Knicks have added a 51.3% effective field goal percentage, which is 15th in the NBA Playoffs. New York should be able to get to the foul line at a solid rate and will likely win the offensive rebounding battle. However, the Knicks have still scored just 112.2 points per 100 possessions.
Despite some clutch shots from Jalen Brunson and co, this offense hasn’t been efficient.
The Knicks will need to grind this game out on defense and prevent the Pacers from adding points in transition. If the Knicks stick to their game plan, they’ll likely win this game and keep the score below the total.
NBA Pick: Under 224.5 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Can The Former Knick Make An Impact?
The New York Knicks drafted Obi Toppin out of Dayton. He had many ups and downs with the team but was eventually traded away.
Toppin has added at least 12 points + rebounds + assists in 73% of games this season. However, he saw just 12.2 minutes in Indiana’s Game 5 win over the Cavaliers. He’s averaged 1.7 potential assists per game over the last ten games. He’s also seen just 4.2 rebound chances per game during the previous ten games.
In addition, Toppin took only three field goal attempts in Game 5 and has made just 3.2 field goals per game over the last ten games.
But if you put all that together, Toppin should be able to get to at least 12 points + rebounds + assists. In Game 4 of the second round, he took 14 shots on only 20.7 minutes. His usage has also increased to 22.2% over the last ten games.
When he’s in the game, he’s usually making a difference. Let’s take his Over tonight. He’ll be motivated.
NBA Pick: Obi Toppin Over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-125) via Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
