The sportsbooks have released NBA Western Conference futures for 2025, and while the Thunder are favorites, the real value lies with the Houston Rockets. Read on to see why they’re poised to win the West!
2026 Western Conference Odds
NBA Western Conference Odds Overview
Oklahoma City is heavily favored to win the West in the upcoming NBA season, but at this price, it would be utterly ridiculous to wager on the Thunder.
Sure, they won the latest NBA championship and are bringing back the same group of guys. However, it’s not at all the case that they dominated their opponents. Both Denver and Indiana took them to seven games.
If you can expect another team to take them to seven games, then it doesn’t make sense to invest in them when they’re favored, because anything can happen in a game due to the nature of variance in basketball, where, for example, a team can shoot poorly from behind the arc.
This point is underscored by the potential for the Thunder to not be a one seed again and to have to play that Game 7 on the road, where they were especially vulnerable last year.
Playoff Bracket Concerns
Moreover, the playoff bracket likely won’t be as favorable for them. Memphis was a dream opponent for them in that they always beat Memphis heavily — they also swept the Grizzlies during the regular season — due to unique matchup factors, such as Memphis’ poor transition defense.
Most importantly, claiming that the Thunder won and should be as good as before does not justify a wager on them, because other teams in their conference have gotten better during the offseason.
The odds do not reflect the extent to which teams like Denver and Houston improved.
Why the Nuggets Are the Best Value Bet
Of course, this claim that Thunder backers rely on — that the Thunder are just as good as they were last year — is naive because it equates how a team looks on paper with how that team plays in reality. History indicates that we should expect a disappointing showing from Oklahoma City in the next playoffs.
The champion before OKC, Boston, was bounced in the second round last year. Denver preceded Boston as champs. After winning the championship, the Nuggets were bounced in the second round of the following playoffs.
The trend continues with Golden State. Defending champs regularly make an early playoff exit in the following year.
The Psychology of Champions
This trend could be explainable psychologically: players are naturally prone to losing fire and motivation after they achieve their goals — we see this in World Cup history, too, which indicates that this is a problem for athletes in general. I refer to Germany’s let-down in the 2018 World Cup after its World Cup victory that preceded its gross disappointment by four years. In the NFL, the Rams are a good recent example.
In this case, it is a bad thing that the Thunder will rely on the same players because all of those players might have lost their hunger.
This trend could also be explained by other teams taking time in the offseason to watch footage and figure out ways to perform better against those players. In this sense, too, it is a bad thing that OKC is relying on its same corps.
Offseason Improvements Not Enough
If we don’t join the masses in betting on the Thunder, then should we invest in Denver?
The Nuggets did make improvements in the offseason, improving their depth and their defense. But Cameron Johnson and the rest of their acquisitions will not suffice to improve their defense to the extent that it needs to improve. Their rim protection and perimeter defense remain vulnerable. On defense, they are still significantly worse than other contenders.
In last year’s postseason, Denver ranked in the bottom half in defensive rating, just as it did in the regular season. Based on their offseason moves, it’s reasonable to expect them to move up maybe a few spots in the rankings.
Not Minnesota, Either
The Timberwolves are, in the minds of many, also worth considering.
But Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley are aging. Conley just had his worst season, so he is on his last legs, and Gobert, at 33, is also aging.
The Timberwolves drafted two centers, so they are thinking about their post-Gobert future. They will rely extensively on youth this year also because they lost key reserve Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
This will be a year in which Minnesota steps back to develop younger talent.
Why Bettors Wrongly Dislike Houston
I like the Rockets to win the West, so let’s address why bettors might not like them.
Bettors might say that they lack depth at the guard position. But investing in bigs is something that all NBA teams in the West have to do, as we just discussed Minnesota doing, because Western Conference teams are loaded with bigs — Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio, Nikola Jokic in Denver, Oklahoma City’s collection of bigs, and so on.
Guard Depth: Holiday and Perimeter Shooting
The Rockets do have good depth at the guard position with Aaron Holiday. Holiday averaged 5.5 points per game last year, but that’s a reflection of his limited playing time.
He gives them the needed three-point shooting — his career three-point conversion rate is 39.8 percent. His annual defensive rating shows that he is also a good defender. He’ll give them the stout perimeter defense that they’re looking for.
Houston’s Forwards and Bigs
The Rockets also don’t need to be so loaded at guard because they have a playmaker in Alperen Sengun. As evident in video footage and in his assist stats, Sengun has good passing and good vision with which to achieve the sort of ball distribution that a guard does.
Houston’s concentration on developing bigs and forwards is also valuable because, with those bigs and forwards, it has the combination of length and athleticism — useful for creating turnovers, in general for scoring and for playing defense, and, with the likes of Steven Adams, for rebounding — that it needs to win games when its offense underachieves.
We saw this in its series against what was a much more experienced Golden State squad that just happened to know how to win a Game 7.
Clutch Experience: Durant and Playoff Know-How
A two seed in last year’s regular season, Houston now has the clutchness — which is critical for the inevitable close games — and, especially after its playoff baptism last year, the experience to win the West.
Beyond giving Houston another player who knows how to win an NBA title, Kevin Durant is a proven clutch-time asset who also provides versatility on defense, with his stoutness at the rim and along the perimeter, and who is an efficient three-point shooter.
Former NBA Finals MVP Durant is the piece that Houston missed last year, as it relied more extensively on younger guys.
Led by arguably the best perimeter defender in All-Defensive First Team selection Amen Thompson, Houston had the fifth-ranked defense in last year’s regular season. The Rockets remain elite on defense and now get the needed boost on offense to replace the absence of playoff productivity from the departed Jalen Green, whom they depended on heavily.
Our Western Conference Futures Pick
The Thunder are rolling into the season with the same roster, but defending champs often struggle the next year. Motivation dips, other teams have studied them, and last year’s magic doesn’t always carry over.
That’s why we’re looking elsewhere: Houston has improved in the offseason and offers more value if you’re thinking about betting the Western Conference. Make Houston your Western Conference pick this season and get in on the action before the futures odds change!
Best Bet: Rockets to Win Western Conference (+550) at Caesars Sportsbook
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