Editor’s note: The article/odds were updated on September 18th, 2023
Below is our fourth installment of the 2024 NFL Super Bowl odds as we see the teams integrating their new draft choices into the mix with seasoned veterans and free agency signings. Let’s take a look at where the odds have shifted since our last edition and what the latest NFL rumors and gossip are telling us at training camps across the league.
Make sure to check out OddsTrader’s NFL Power Rankings as well as a whole host of handicapping tools at your disposal including its proprietary NFL Computer Picks.
OddsTrader’s Betting Edge
• Would it surprise anyone if Mac Jones regained the form that saw him go to the Pro Bowl in his rookie season with a new offensive coordinator this season?
• And let’s not forget that the Ravens ended last season with a 10-7 record which is ostensibly a weaker team than the one Baltimore has assembled this season, yet the total has dropped to 9 ½ regular season wins.
• A stellar offensive line is a luxury most quarterbacks, let alone rookie signal callers, don’t have and it could make this Texans offense much more lethal than most are giving it credit for at this point in the preseason.
• Denver going over 8 ½ victories seems like a bridge too far for a quarterback like Russell Wilson who may have nothing left in the gas tank.
• Consider that Philadelphia finished with the best record in the league last year, came within four points of winning the Super Bowl, and arguably had the best draft of all 32 teams.
• Alabama’s passer extraordinaire, Bryce Young, will be under center either immediately or will carry a clipboard and learn from the Red Rifle, Andy Dalton.
Below, you will find the Super Bowl odds, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of September 18th, 2023.
| The Elite | The Contenders | The Pretenders | The Longshots |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs +700 | Lions +1800 | Jets+6000 | Buccaneers+7000 |
| 49ers+700 | Browns +1800 | Vikings+7000 | Raiders +8000 |
| Eagles+750 | Chargers+2800 | Commanders +7000 | Giants +8000 |
| Cowboys+800 | Jaguars +2800 | Broncos+7000 | Bears+12,500 |
| Bills +1000 | Saints+3000 | Rams+7000 | Panthers +12,500 |
| Dolphins +1400 | Falcons +3500 | Patriots +7000 | Colts +12,500 |
| Ravens +1500 | Seahawks +4000 | Steelers +7000 | Cardinals +30,000 |
| Bengals +1600 | Packers +5000 | Titans +7000 | Texans +40,000 |
American Football Conference
Below you will find the updated odds for each of the NFL teams to win their division along with their total regular-season wins, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook as of September 4th, 2023.
AFC East
| Team | Division Odds | Season Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | +140 | 10.5 |
| Buffalo Bills | +145 | 9.5 |
| New York Jets | +500 | 9.5 |
| New England Patriots | +950 | 7.5 |
The Bills are again the team to beat in the division while Jets fans are ga-ga over the team landing a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers. The Dolphins also have plenty to be excited about as long as Tua stays healthy. And then there’s the Patriots.
But the question remains, is there value in betting on the Patriots this season? Granted, they would shock the world if they outdueled their division rivals and won the AFC East but the total seems temptingly low, especially when one considers they have brought back an offensive guru in Bill O’Brien and purged the locker room of the ill-advised OC from last year, defensive specialist Matt Patricia.
Belichick’s decision to allow a lifelong defensive coach to control the offense smacks of pure arrogance, a contrarian move designed to illustrate just how much of a genius he truly is. But since the departure of the true GOAT, Tom Brady, Belichick’s IQ has dropped a dozen points or more.
Nevertheless, the Patriots extended DeVante Parker and rid themselves of the frustratingly inconsistent Nelson Agholor. Their defense should be among the elite with stud rookie corner Christian Gonzalez, along with two other highly touted defensive selections.
And would it surprise anyone if Mac Jones regained the form that saw him go to the Pro Bowl in his rookie season with a new offensive coordinator this season? The total at Caesars is 7½ and it might be time to get a piece of the over before they pick up DeAndre Hopkins or Dalvin Cook and the total rises.
AFC North
| Team | Division Odds | Season Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | +210 | 9.5 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +210 | 9.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | +215 | 11.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +700 | 9 |
The Ravens’ regular season win total has dropped one full game since the last time we published our 2023 Super Bowl Odds Update. Approximately a month ago, Baltimore was at 10½ regular season wins but we now see the books hanging that line at 9½ and it should give every bettor cause for pause when considering backing the Ravens.
But now that Lamar Jackson has been signed to a long-term deal and the Ravens did an impressive job of upgrading the receiving corps with a $15 million deal to Odell Beckham Junior and the first-round selection of Zay Flowers, this offense should be more lethal than last year’s.
And let’s not forget that the Ravens ended last season with a 10-7 record with an ostensibly a weaker team than the one Baltimore has assembled this season, yet the total has dropped to 9½ regular season wins.
AFC South
| Team | Division Odds | Season Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -195 | 10 |
| Tennessee Titans | +350 | 7.5 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +800 | 6.5 |
| Houston Texans | +1000 | 6.5 |
The Texans are the long shots to win the South, but is there any value in the +950 odds for Houston to win the AFC South that Caesars is hanging? Or perhaps the betting value lies with the 6½ total being offered if the Texans can make a run at the division crown?
Quarterback C.J. Stroud and linebacker Will Anderson Jr. went No. 2 and No. 3 overall in April’s NFL Draft and both landed in Houston. That is certainly cause for celebration if not for this year but for the future. However, every great offense has at least a serviceable line but the Texans have one of the best in the league.
All-World left tackle Laremy Tunsil and Houston’s first-round selection four years ago, Tytus Howard, make formidable bookends with veteran Shaq Mason and last year’s first-round selection, Kenyon Green, anchoring the guard positions. A stellar offensive line is a luxury most quarterbacks, let alone rookie signal callers, don’t have, and it could make this Texans offense much more lethal than most are giving it credit for at this point in the preseason.
AFC West
| Team | Division Odds | Season Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -140 | 11.5 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | +255 | 9.5 |
| Denver Broncos | +750 | 8.5 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | +850 | 7.5 |
The Chiefs are the newest version of America’s team, but what about some of the other divisional challengers? The Chargers could be due to take the next step after a meltdown against the Jaguars in the opening round of last year’s playoffs. Experience, positive or negative, is always necessary for any player or team’s evolution.
However, one team that could be a viable fade this season is Denver. Russell Wilson looked miserable in his new surroundings last year after spending his entire career in Seattle. The Broncos mortgaged their future for the highly coveted quarterback, but last season resulted in a disastrous 5-12 campaign.
Perhaps the inclusion of former New Orleans head coach, Sean Payton, will be the elixir that cures what ails the Broncos but improving by four wins over last season and Denver going over 8½ victories seems like a bridge too far for a quarterback like Russell Wilson who may have nothing left in the gas tank.
National Football Conference
NFC East
| Team | Division Odds | Season Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | -115 | 11.5 |
| Dallas Cowboys | +140 | 9.5 |
| Washington Commanders | +1200 | 6.5 |
| New York Giants | +1500 | 7.5 |
According to the oddsmakers, Dallas is Philadelphia’s nearest rival but Philadelphia is head and shoulders above the Cowboys and the others in their division. Consider that Philadelphia finished with the best record in the league last year, came within four points of winning the Super Bowl, and arguably had the best draft of all 32 teams.
The Eagles did many things well last season, but stopping the run was not one of them. But that will likely change as they landed Georgia’s Jalen Carter at the No. 9 spot in the opening round. But they weren’t done as they also tapped another Georgia product, Nolan Smith, at outside linebacker.
Philadelphia lost both their offensive and defensive coordinator, which is about the only negative we see in this year’s edition. If their replacements disrupt the mojo both units currently possess, then it could have an adverse effect. However, this team is too talented on both sides of the ball to do anything but compete for another Super Bowl title.
NFC North
| Team | Division Odds | Season Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | -115 | 9.5 |
| Green Bay Packers | +240 | 7.5 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +480 | 8.5 |
| Chicago Bears | +1000 | 7.5 |
If the hype you see on the Lions seems a bit overwrought, you are not alone. Yes, head coach Dan Campbell has gotten his charges to buy in on his ra-ra college frat boy style and it’s hard not to like it. But we are not sure they are ready to oust the Vikings from their perch atop the division.
Justin Jefferson is arguably the best wide receiver in the league and now USC’s Jordan Addison will be lined up as Kirk Cousins’ Plan B. Addison was chosen in the first round and is a stellar route runner who gets a quick jump off the line. We expect the Vikings to be even more dynamic than they were last year and capture another division title.
NFC South
| Team | Division Odds | Season Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | +105 | 9.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +185 | 8.5 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +600 | 7.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | +800 | 6.5 |
The NFC South is the worst division in football and the fact the Saints are the favorites to win it is evidence enough. But as long as everything is fairly even, let’s talk about the Panthers as a logical division winner, as we believe they are the prettiest pig in this poke with odds of +340 that make it worth a wager.
Alabama’s passer extraordinaire, Bryce Young, will be under center either immediately or will carry a clipboard and learn from the Red Rifle, Andy Dalton. Miles Sanders was a Pro Bowler last season and a 1,000-yard rusher with the Eagles last year. And there is experience on the wings with Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark as Young’s top targets, with Ole Miss wideout Jonathan Mingo drafted in the second round to round out the receiving corps.
Frank Reich is now the head coach and will be a stable force for this blend of young and older players. We see the Panthers winning this division with something along the lines of an 8-9 record this season.
NFC West
| Team | Division Odds | Season Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | -420 | 10.5 |
| Seattle Seahawks | +500 | 9 |
| Los Angeles Rams | +900 | 6.5 |
| Arizona Cardinals | +6500 | 4.5 |
The NFC West is San Francisco’s for the asking but it is a long season and injuries happen. Nevertheless, the quarterback competition will be interesting as the 49ers are champing at the bit to watch Trey Lance do his thing after taking a big gamble and selecting the FCS passer third overall in the 2021 draft.
However, Brock Purdy is the one that brought the 49ers to the dance last season after San Francisco’s other options were all on the shelf. Unfortunately, he tore the UCL in his throwing elbow against the Eagles in the conference championship and the Niners bowed with emergency quarterback Josh Johnson trying vainly to get the offense started.
The 49ers will be back again in the postseason courtesy of their NFC West title and could win it all this time around.
Props and Bonuses
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Online sportsbooks like BetMGM, Caesars, Bet365, Unibet, SugarHouse, BetRivers, SBK and MaximBet all offer props like “Who Will Win the NFL Rookie of the Year or MVP Award” as well as futures to win the Super Bowl, in addition to generous signup bonuses.
Shop for Odds
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NFL Power Rankings
Getting keen insight into how each of the playoff teams stacks up is easy when you check out the OddsTrader NFL Power Rankings page. Here you will see the average line, the power line suggested by OddsTrader’s AI algorithms, and the Bettor’s Edge which is the difference between the two.
NFL Computer Picks
If you go to the OddsTrader NFL Computer Picks section you can see what the OT algorithms project and how the results compare to those predictions.
NFL Betting FAQs
Question: Where can I bet on the LVIII NFL Super Bowl?
Answer: The best online sportsbooks are the safest online sportsbooks, which are those licensed in jurisdictions where online sports betting is legal in the United States. The top-rated books are BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, FanDuel, Unibet, SugarHouse, BetRivers, Bet365, SBK, PointsBet, and MaximBet. All offer a wide variety of NFL props, futures, and point spreads.
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Answer: The most popular bet is the point spread bet where the underdog is getting points or the favorite is giving points.
However, moneylines, where no point spread is involved have grown increasingly popular, as have over/under, or total bets, where bettors can wager over or under on the combined total of the two teams in that game.
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