Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAB odds for the Final Four matchup between the Cinderella 11 seed N.C. State and the number one seed Purdue.
The Boilermakers are heavily favored. Can the Wolfpack keep it close? Not a chance. For your best bets, I will recommend wagering on Purdue.
Picks Summary
- Purdue -9.5 (-105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Saturday, April 6, 2024 – 06:09 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
Not Impressed by N.C. State
While I think that the Wolfpack have certainly improved relative to the time period from the end of February to the beginning of March during which they lost four straight games, I don’t think that the difference is substantial.
This team’s tournament run has been more fortunate than dominant. They beat a Texas Tech team with a poor track record on neutral court, a team that has mostly been bad away from home.
In the second round, the 14-seed Oakland took them to overtime despite being woefully undersized inside. They subsequently faced a Marquette team that annually chokes in March, one that shot 4-for-31 from deep.
N.C. State’s three-point defense ranked ninth in terms of opposing conversion rate in ACC play. It has not suddenly improved. Instead, the Golden Eagles missed so many wide-open shots.
You can see Marquette’s wide-open misses from behind the arc at 17:40 left in the first half, 17:15 left in the first half. The misses at 13:25 and 10:45 were even especially wide-open. The list continues. N.C. State made the paint area congested, prayed that Marquette would miss open threes and was fortunate.
Their last win came against a Duke team that had given it all to scrape past physical Houston. The Blue Devils played an ugly game with missed opportunities especially from Tyrese Proctor, a lack of composure from Jeremy Roach and Kyle Filipowski and a disappointing absence of creativity from Roach.
Tournament Run Comparison
My point here is that I’m not seeing a Wolfpack team that has what it takes to compete with top-tier teams.
Whereas they almost lost to a 14 seed giving them their best and benefited from facing other teams at their worst, Purdue has shown dominance in beating Utah State in the second round by 39 points and defeating Gonzaga by double digits.
The ceiling is much higher for Purdue. I like Purdue to reach that ceiling in Saturday’s game because we can see that the Boilermakers have figured things out in March. They refuse to allow lower-quality teams to hang with them, they can blow out mediocre teams and they can beat good ones by double digits.
I also, as I will argue, believe that the matchup suits Purdue very well.
N.C. State’s Offensive Profile
The Wolfpack rarely make baskets via assists. Instead, they like to run a lot of iso ball.
Their primary playmaker here is guard DJ Horne. Horne is their most creative ball-handler and their most dynamic individual scorer. So, his teammates will spread themselves out and often let him get to work in a one-on-one with ample operating room.
However, N.C. State’s top shot-taker, albeit by a slim margin over Horne, is center DJ Burns. Burns is short, but he’ll use his 275 pounds of weight to pound his defender inside. More than just a bruiser, he’ll execute a quick spin move or add some other form of finesse to initiate a shot attempt in which he’ll display his touch.
Outside of Horne and Burns, nobody is particularly dangerous.
When N.C. State nearly lost to offensively anemic Virginia in the ACC Tournament and survived thanks to the latter’s choke job, Horne did almost nothing offensively, but Burns was effective, especially in overtime.
Take away Horne and Burns and N.C. State’s scoring output will be negligible. As in, upper 50s in points at best.
Purdue’s Most Dangerous Opponent: Northwestern
Defensively, Purdue has experienced in conference play a wide range of outcomes.
The Boilermakers allowed Northwestern to exceed 80 points in regulation, whereas they limited other teams to 60 points or fewer. Northwestern gave them trouble by utilizing an array of guards who can shoot from long-range, away from the length of 7’4 center Zach Edey.
In particular, Northwestern employed complex off-ball screening actions in order to force Purdue defenders into lock-and-trail situations. Given this reliance on passing, Northwestern amassed a high number of assists.
The Wildcats used screens for ball-handlers like Boo Buie who can drive quickly to the basket, creating a respectable inside-out game, or pull up efficiently from deep. Overall, Northwestern is the seventh-most efficient three-point shooting team in the nation.
Is N.C. State Like Northwestern?
N.C. State is not like Northwestern because it was middle-of-the-pack efficiency-wise from behind the arc in ACC play. The Wolfpack don’t pose a significant threat from deep except with Horne, who is maybe good for a few three-pointers.
Against Pittsburgh, for example, he thrived from deep but still failed to help his team reach 65 points.
We’re going to get an inferior version of Dalton Knecht minus the height, as Knecht was often able to shoot over his Purdue defender and thrived from deep before final stretch. His Volunteers finished with 66 points.
Lance Jones as a Defender
Horne did nothing in the ACC Tournament near-loss to Virginia because he was guarded by an excellent defender in Reece Beekman. Can Jones replicate Beekman’s effort against the sort of offense that N.C. State runs?
Rather than relying so much on the type of actions that Northwestern runs, N.C. State is more like Maryland with the way that the latter team uses Jahmir Young. Young is by all accounts a good scorer. His offensive rating is pretty similar to Horne’s.
Young struggled to drive past Jones. He did not score on the Purdue defender until just over five minutes left in the first half when he benefited from a dribble handoff and still had to make a very tough shot at the rim. His Terrapins were already down by double digits at that point.
Jones showed in that game that he is a good defender who can hang with quick guards. Horne, like Young, won’t get the benefit of Knecht’s height, which he used to score as many points as he did for his Volunteers, although he was very inefficient overall.
Purdue’s Interior Defense
A few three-pointers from Horne mean nothing, especially when the team as a whole will struggle so mightily inside.
Edey with his height is one of the nation’s top rim protectors. His size makes it extremely hard for teams to score inside. Moreover, Edey is very good at not fouling.
The media is raging about the Burns vs. Edey matchup, but this will be a simple affair for Edey because Burns is short for a center and so much shorter than him. Edey will raise his long arms and stay vertical to avoid fouling.
Burns won’t be able to bully the 300-pounder, either. His offensive struggle on Saturday will recall his two-point performance in last year’s NCAA Tournament against Creighton where he had to deal with the seven-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner, who is still not as big as Edey.
The Wolfpack exceeded 60 points in that game only thanks to a strong individual performance from Terquavion Smith that Jones will inhibit Horne from replicating.
Purdue’s Pick-and-Roll
N.C. State also lost to Creighton because of Kalkbrenner’s 31 points. Creighton’s pick-and-roll game could be effective largely because of the well-sized Kalkbrenner’s above-the-rim game.
When Duke ran pick-and-roll and thought that it had advantages in the instances when N.C. State switched, Wolfpack defenders can clearly be seen comfortably converging on Duke’s ball-handler. N.C. State’s ball-screen defense will look completely different against Purdue.
In Purdue’s ball-screen game, point guard Braden Smith likes to team up with Edey. Smith will use a screen and comfortably pull up. He shoots 43.9 percent from three-point range. Given his shooting ability, teams like Northwestern have tried to blitz him.
However, he also effectively passes out of double teams and especially wants to find Edey, which is what is going to happen a lot on Saturday. Edey will roll to the basket and establish himself in the post where it is easy to lob him passes.
N.C. State doesn’t have anyone to guard him. Burns gives up half a foot. Mohamed Diarra, who has suffered foul trouble in two of his last three games, is much too skinny, giving up 85 pounds to Edey. Edey is going to feast inside.
If N.C. State wants to be more aggressive on ball-screens, then Purdue’s ability to pass around the horn will have a punishing effect – the Boilermakers are the second-most efficient three-point shooting team in the nation.
The Wolfpack are rather known for their drop coverage. Burns has to sag in drop coverage because he is slow-footed. If he cheats on a ball-screen, the opposing ball-handler can easily reject the screen and blow by Burns.
More Three-Point Shooting
While the media is focused on the Burns-Edey showdown, the reality is that there are four other players on the court for each team, and they will make a sizeable difference.
My basic point here is that the Wolfpack are overly reliant on Horne and Burns for offensive production. In contrast, Purdue’s interior defense and Jones’ on-ball defense will prevent either player from doing much offensively. Conversely, Purdue is stacked outside of Edey.
N.C. State will need to double Edey, but doubling Edey will make it harder for the Wolfpack to guard Purdue’s various efficient three-point shooters by putting added pressure on their rotations. Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Mason Gillis all shoot 43.9 percent or better from deep.
Rebounding
On top of everything else, Purdue is one of the nation’s top rebounding teams on both ends of the floor, whereas N.C. State does not compare. Purdue’s size inside will enable it to amass second-chance points and to finish off possessions.
Takeaway
Purdue has too much defense and too many scoring options for an N.C. State team to handle that has largely profited from the shortcomings of its opponents, whether it’s the wide-open misses of Marquette or the absence of offensive inspiration from fatigued Duke in the second half.
Purdue will blast yet another opponent, using its size inside and Jones to take away N.C. State’s top two scoring options, while the Wolfpack, so mediocre in field goal efficiency numbers despite those two players, won’t have anyone to help them.
The Boilermakers will follow last year’s Creighton in thriving inside with its pick-and-roll, whose inside impetus will be complemented by its array of three-point shooters. Plus the rebounding edge will go to the Boilermakers. Plus N.C. State’s bigs can easily end up in foul trouble, as happens to so many teams who face Purdue.
N.C. State, which doesn’t have the offensive talent of a team like Gonzaga, will struggle to reach 60 points, while Purdue approaches 80.
NCAAB Pick: Purdue -9.5 (-105) at Bet365
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