Tonight’s slate does not feature matchups between the top 25 teams, but there’s still some value at the top-rated sportsbooks. I asked the AI Model for its best bets for this evening and discussed them below.
Picks Summary
- Notre Dame -18 (-110)
- UTEP/Louisville Under 145 (-110)
- Colgate +33 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Dartmouth Big Green vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Wednesday, December 11, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Purcell Pavilion
The AI Model thinks Notre Dame will add an 80-61 victory over Dartmouth. However, you can find Notre Dame at -18. Backing the Fighting Irish at -18 is ideal, with the model believing in a 19-point win.
Dartmouth’s Terrible Offense
Dartmouth ranks 349th in offensive-adjusted efficiency. The Big Green has earned just 21.4% of offensive rebounds and has shot just 31.3% from three and 45.6% from inside the arc.
While Notre Dame won’t earn many turnovers, it’ll be hard for Dartmouth to get to the foul line, earn offensive rebounds and hit shots consistently.
Notre Dame Can Live Inside
The Fighting Irish have shot 54% from inside the arc this season. With Dartmouth allowing teams to shoot 53.5% from inside, it’s likely that Notre Dame will earn many easy buckets around the rim.
Don’t expect Notre Dame to add a high rate of offensive rebounds, either. It’s also unlikely the Fighting Irish get to the foul line consistently. But they’ll get plenty of easy shots around the rim that should help elevate the score.
The Pick
Let’s back Notre Dame at -18 and stick with the AI Model here.
NCAAB Pick: Notre Dame -18 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
UTEP Miners vs. Louisville Cardinals
Wednesday, December 11, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at KFC Yum! Center
The AI Model believes Louisville and UTEP will combine for 144 points. Yet, you can find the total at 145. The Under is the best bet in this game.
UTEP’s Interesting Defense
The UTEP Miners are super interesting on defense. This team has allowed a 53% effective field goal percentage but has also added the most turnovers on defense in college basketball.
With Louisville turning the ball over 18.9% of the time, there’s a legitimate chance that UTEP can earn a high rate of turnovers in this game. In addition, UTEP has held teams to 49.1% from inside the arc. Louisville takes way more threes and has hit only 28.2% from deep this year.
UTEP Can’t Score Inside
The UTEP Miners have shot just 45.9% from inside the arc this season. Unlike Louisville, UTEP takes way more two-point shots and has really struggled inside the arc.
Ultimately, Louisville has held teams to 48.5% from inside and 32.9% from deep. The Cardinals have also limited teams to 29.7% of offensive rebounds and don’t foul very much.
The Pick
Louisville will score at a solid rate, but turnovers will have an effect. Take the Under 145.
NCAAB Pick: Under 145 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Colgate Raiders vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Wednesday, December 11, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Rupp Arena
The AI Model suggests Colgate will cover a 33-point spread with a 93-64 loss. That loss would only be by 31, which means Colgate certainly has the value in this game.
Less Turnovers, The Better
Colgate won’t be close to knocking off Kentucky tonight. Yet, it’s likely that Colgate won’t lose by more than 30 points.
Colgate has still shot 51.8% from inside the arc and has turned the ball over below 17% of the time. If Colgate methodically limits possessions but gets shots off and doesn’t turn the ball over, it will be extremely hard for Kentucky to add many points and go on big runs to earn a 33-point win.
After all, Kentucky has earned just 14.6% of turnovers per game this season. The turnovers will be an essential factor in the spread of this game. If Colgate isn’t turning the ball over and Kentucky rarely forces turnovers, it favors Colgate to at least cover the spread.
Colgate Is Disciplined
The Colgate Raiders also rank 122 in defensive rebounding and 62nd in FTA/FGA. There’s a good chance Colgate limits Kentucky at the foul line and on the offensive glass. If Colgate can limit those two areas and turnovers on offense, the Raiders will be able to cover this game somewhat easily.
The Pick
Let’s ride with the AI Model and take Colgate at +33.
NCAAB Pick: Colgate +33 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
