While there are many conference tournaments throughout the day, there are still many regular-season matchups to close out the season. I’ve examined each game on the slate and used the AI Model to help me pick the best three bets tonight.
Check it out below before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks. And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert covered the Southern Illinois vs. Drake and Purdue vs. Illinois games!
Picks Summary
- VCU -9 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
- Illinois -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
- South Florida/Memphis Over 151.5 (-110) at BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
Dayton Flyers vs. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Friday, March 07, 2025 – 07:00 PM ET at Siegel Center
The AI Model thinks VCU will earn a ten-point win over Dayton tonight. Meanwhile, VCU is just -9 against the spread. There’s value on the Rams tonight.
Can Dayton Find Ways To Score?
The Dayton Flyers have shot 35.6% from deep and 52.7% from inside the arc. These are tremendous numbers. However, they’re facing a VCU Rams team that ranks third in college basketball with a 44.8% effective field goal percentage.
VCU has literally held teams to 30.6% from three and 44.2% from inside the arc. It’s very hard to score against the Rams, especially when on the road. Dayton will want to be aggressive and find ways to get to the foul line. But even then, it likely won’t be enough to get by VCU.
VCU Must Attack Inside More
The VCU Rams have some elite shooters, hitting 34.7% from downtown this season. The Rams also take a lot of threes. But they’d be wise to try and score inside more. After all, Dayton has allowed 52.2% from inside the arc this season.
VCU, on the other hand, has drained nearly 54% of shots from two-point range and has added 36.5% of offensive rebounds. The Rams likely won’t get to the foul line as much, but their shot percentage will be way, way better.
The Pick
Take VCU at -9.
NCAAB Pick: VCU -9 (-110) at Bet365
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Friday, March 07, 2025 – 08:00 PM ET at State Farm Center
The AI Model suggests Illinois will add an 83-76 win over Purdue tonight. However, Illinois is just -4 against the spread. That’s insane value!
Can Illinois Get Stops Inside?
The Purdue Boilermakers are one of the best offenses in the country. They’re coming off 100 points against Rutgers. Still, they could struggle to find success inside the arc against Illinois. After all, the Fighting Illini have limited teams to 45.4% from inside the arc.
Purdue has several electric shooters. However, the Boilermakers still take many shots from inside the arc. Nothing will be easy. Plus, Illinois has limited teams to 26.6% of offensive rebounds and a low FTA/FGA ratio on defense.
In this game, Purdue won’t come close to 100 points on the road.
Illinois Can Attack Down Low!
The Illinois Fighting Illini have way more potential inside the arc. Illinois has shot 57.4% from two-point range, while Purdue has allowed teams to shoot 56% from inside the arc.
Ultimately, Illinois takes more threes, but they’ll want to adjust and shoot more inside this game. Plus, the Fighting Illini have also added 36.1% of offensive rebounds and have turned the ball over fewer times throughout the season.
The Pick
I like Illinois to escape. Take the Fighting Illini -4.
NCAAB Pick: Illinois -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
South Florida Bulls vs. Memphis Tigers
Friday, March 07, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at FedExForum
The AI Model thinks South Florida and Memphis will combine for 151 points. Meanwhile, the total for this game is currently at 151.5. There’s reason to back the Over in this one.
Can South Florida Attack The Offensive Glass?
The South Florida Bulls will close out the regular season against Memphis tonight. They’ve shot a 50.1% effective field goal percentage, which is nothing spectacular. However, there’s reason to believe South Florida can improve tonight.
It’s not with their shot but more so on the glass. The Tigers have allowed nearly 33% of offensive rebounds per game. While South Florida hasn’t rebounded exceptionally well, they’ve got a chance to add more second chances in tonight’s matchup.
The Tigers Will Do The Little Things!
The Memphis Tigers have turned the ball over 19.3%, which will hurt them and potentially give South Florida more fast-break points. Still, Memphis has added 34.1% of offensive rebounds and a super-high free throw rate.
In addition, Memphis has shot 38.8% from downtown and over 52% from inside the arc. The Tigers should destroy offensively, especially at home.
The Pick
Take the Over 151.5 in this game.
NCAAB Pick: South Florida/Memphis Over 151.5 (-110) at BetMGM
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