Many of the college basketball in-season tournaments are closing up. Today, we’ve got many championship games and some consolation games to look forward to. We’ll use the AI Model to find the best value on the NCAAB odds board.
Picks Summary
- San Diego State +12.5 (-110) at Bet365
- Georgia -16 (-110) at Bet365
- Oregon +5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Houston Cougars
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at MGM Grand Garden Arena
The AI Model believes the San Diego Aztecs will cover a 12.5-point spread against Houston in a 71-59 finish. Take San Diego State at +12.5 via Bet365.
Houston Is Ineffective Shooting
The Houston Cougars have only hit 47.7% from inside the arc. This wasn’t expected before the season began. However, it’s necessary to point out this deep into the season.
With SDSU holding teams to 43.1% from inside the arc, Houston might not have much success inside the arc in this game.
In addition, Houston’s ineffectiveness around the rim is not the only bad portion of the offense. Houston hasn’t been getting to the foul line at a high rate.
Ultimately, the Cougars will keep turnovers down and should end up with some offensive rebounds. But no foul shots and a poor rate around the rim are enough to keep other teams in the game.
Is San Diego State Good Enough?
The San Diego State Aztecs have had the same problems as Houston. The team isn’t adding offensive rebounds or getting to the foul line. However, the Aztecs will take more threes and have hit beyond 36% from downtown.
That’s a good enough rate. If the Aztecs shoot that rate from downtown, it’s hard to imagine they’ll lose by double-digits.
At the end of the day, both teams move at a slow pace. There won’t be a lot of possessions in this game. That favors the underdog.
Let’s ride with SDSU at +12.5 in this exciting matchup.
NCAAB Pick: San Diego State +12.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Jacksonville Dolphins vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Stegeman Coliseum
The AI Model believes Georgia will add an 81-64 victory over Jacksonville. As a 16-point favorite, Georgia has the value per our Model.
Jacksonville’s Pitiful Offense
The Jacksonville Dolphins have given up 21.2% of turnovers and barely get to the foul line. The team has also hit only 48.7% from three and 68.4% from the foul line.
While Jacksonville has hit 35.6% from three, the Dolphins aren’t taking threes at a very high rate.
The Dolphins have had success on the offensive glass. However, against Georgia, it’s more unlikely that Jacksonville can do that.
Georgia Is Too Much Inside
The Georgia Bulldogs have added 43.7% of offensive rebounds and shot 58.5% from inside the arc, two key areas for the Bulldogs.
After all, Jacksonville has allowed 30% of offensive rebounds and has watched teams shoot 55.1% from inside the arc.
If the Bulldogs take advantage of both of those keys, they will win by 20+. Take Georgia at -16.
NCAAB Pick: Georgia -16 (-110) at Bet365
Oregon Ducks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, November 30, 2024 – 09:30 PM ET at MGM Grand Garden Arena
The AI Model thinks Oregon will lose to the Alabama Crimson Tide, 85-80. However, Oregon is a 5.5-point favorite. That would be enough to cover against the spread.
Alabama’s Defense Has Some Flaws
The Alabama Crimson Tide have only earned 13.6% of turnovers per game this season. In addition, Alabama has allowed a FTA/FGA of 38.7, which ranks 272nd in college basketball this season.
If Oregon can continue to limit turnovers and get to the foul line at a high rate, they’ll stick around against Alabama. The offense has already nailed 33.1% from three and 55.3% from inside the arc. The Ducks have also added 35% of offensive rebounds and don’t give up a ton of turnovers.
Alabama Isn’t Hitting Threes Yet
The Alabama Crimson Tide is known for its ability to hit from downtown. Yet, Alabama has only knocked down 32.8% from three.
It’s also less likely Alabama gets to the foul line as much as Oregon. In addition, you’d have to imagine that Oregon earns more turnovers based on Alabama’s fast-paced action.
Let’s take Oregon to cover against the spread in this championship game in the Players Era Festival.
NCAAB Pick: Oregon +5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
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