New Mexico, coming off a disastrous showing in their Week 0 loss, faces an uphill battle in their visit to Arizona. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best college football odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Under 58.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
New Mexico vs. Arizona
Saturday, August 31, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Arizona Stadium
New Mexico’s Collapse
New Mexico’s game against Montana State last Saturday ended in disappointment after a promising start, as the Lobos squandered a 31-14 lead early in the third quarter. The tide turned sharply in Montana State’s favor, as they outscored the Lobos 21-0 in the fourth quarter.
The momentum shifted when Adam Jones electrified the field with a 93-yard dash, followed by Scottre Humphrey’s game-winning four-yard touchdown run. Montana State’s late-game heroics, including two touchdowns in the final four minutes, led to a stunning 35-31 upset.
New Mexico’s performance highlights their struggles, raising concerns about the team’s overall strength. While teams typically show improvement between their first and second games, history suggests that teams playing in Week 0 often face challenges against the spread in Week 1. This could spell trouble for New Mexico as they prepare to face a potent Arizona offense this coming Saturday.
Arizona Is A Force to Be Reckoned With
Arizona will rely heavily on an explosive offensive showing. Despite an overhaul in their coaching staff after a rare 10-win season, Arizona retained key players, most notably the highly regarded QB-WR duo of Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, considered one of the best in college football.
With a sturdy offensive line and a dynamic rushing attack, Arizona is well-equipped to put points on the board right out of the gate.
Though Fifita may not be the most physically imposing quarterback, nor a dual-threat, his precision is undeniable—he completed 72.4% of his passes last season and is known for his smart decision-making. McMillan, his top target, averaged an impressive 15.6 yards per catch with 90 receptions, totaling 1,402 yards and 10 touchdowns. At 6-foot-5, McMillan is a daunting matchup for any defense and is a likely future NFL star.
Arizona has also strengthened their lineup with the addition of Reymello Murphy from Old Dominion, a deep threat who averaged 17.9 yards per catch last season, and Sam Olson from San Jose State, a tight end capable of stretching the field.
The Wildcats’ running game, already solid, has been further enhanced by Jacory Croskey-Merritt from New Mexico, along with Quali Conley, who amassed 842 yards and nine touchdowns on 131 carries in 13 games for San Jose State last year, and Kedrick Reescano, a promising transfer from Ole Miss.
NCAAF Pick
While it’s common for teams to improve between their first and second games, New Mexico’s defense showed alarming weaknesses, conceding 567 yards of total offense to an FCS team—a red flag as they prepare to face Arizona.
Arizona is likely to exploit their deep running game to overpower the Lobos. Although the Wildcats’ offensive line may not be as formidable as last year’s, they still possess a solid foundation with key players like right tackle Jonah Savaiinaea, left guard Wendell Moe, and center Josh Baker.
Covering a large spread like this is a tall order, and with Arizona’s road game against No. 18 Kansas State looming on September 13, they may opt for a more conservative approach. Arizona’s talent and depth should enable them to secure a straightforward victory while not going all out on New Mexico, making the Under an appealing bet.
NCAAF Pick: Under 58.5 (-110) at Bet365
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