NFL Pick: 2023 New York Giants Under 7.5 Wins (-118) at BetRivers
The New York Giants finally won their first playoff game since Super Bowl 46. But a 6-1 start leading to a 10-8-1 finish suggests there is still a lot of room for improvement under Brian Daboll, who won Coach of the Year for his rookie season.
The Giants had their share of close wins last season, but they were 0-5 against the Eagles and Cowboys, showing there is still a considerable gap in the NFC East. The Giants only have an over/under of 7.5 wins at many of the sportsbooks, and the odds are against them returning to the playoffs in 2023.
In fact, the last 9 teams to make the playoffs with a negative scoring differential all failed to return the next year to the playoffs. You have to go back to Andrew Luck’s Colts in 2013 to find the last time a wild card team with a negative scoring differential made the playoffs in back-to-back years.
The Giants are in this position because we are still not sure if Daniel Jones has truly arrived at quarterback despite his new contract.
Significant Changes
The Giants are sticking with Daniel Jones for the long run, but what did they do to help him out with receiving weapons in 2023? Also, is this defense any good?
Giants Acquire Darren Waller
Regardless of how you feel about Jones at quarterback, you must admit the Giants have done a poor job of putting talented receivers around him. Kenny Golladay was a total bust in free agency after coming over from Detroit, and Kadarius Toney was always in the injury list or ineffective after the Giants wasted a 1st-round pick for him.
The Giants have also had some bad luck with ACL tears for receivers like Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson last year.
After signing Jones to a 4-year extension worth $160 million, the Giants had to upgrade the receivers if they are going to compete with the top teams. Their big move this year was to acquire tight end Darren Waller from the Raiders.
This would have been a much bigger deal a year or two ago, but Waller has to prove he can stay healthy. He has only played in 20 games since 2021, and he was down to 52.7 yards per game in those seasons. Waller turns 31 in September.
Waller will be the best tight end Jones has ever played with, but when you see Evan Engram having a breakout year with Jacksonville last season, you start to wonder if there is something inherently wrong with the quarterback here.
Waller helps, but this is not akin to giving Josh Allen someone like wideout Stefon Diggs in 2020. That had a lot to do with that offense taking off under Daboll that year.
Slot Receivers Everywhere
In addition to Waller, the Giants have made some moves at wide receiver that go beyond getting Shepard and Robinson back from injury. They have loaded up on slot receivers, bringing in Parris Campbell, Cole Beasley, and Jamison Crowder.
The experience is nice, but they cannot possibly all make the team this year. At some point you need to spice up the skills, because someone like Shepard is also good in the slot. None of these players are in dominant form in 2023 either.
Jalin Hyatt from Tennessee is an interesting 3rd-round pick by the Giants. He could be a deep threat, but he will be a low-volume, low-percentage receiver for Jones. But getting him on the field might be the best way to give the Giants more options beyond these slot receivers.
Is the Defense Any Better?
Props to defensive coordinator Wink Martindale for being willing to play a risky brand of defense last year. In a league where defenses are increasingly becoming risk-averse, Martindale called blitzes at a rate of 39.7% last year – more than 5.0 percentage points than any other defense.
The 41 sacks could have been better, but the 24.3% pressure rate ranked No. 6 in the league according to Pro Football Reference. Some of the pressures were timely too, resulting in huge stops against Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson in close wins early in the season.
But the Giants were usually behind so big against teams like the Cowboys and Eagles that it did not matter when a well-timed blitz was dialed up. The Giants had few answers for top offenses.
The Giants were a bit too reliant on situational play helping them out last year. The Giants finished No. 5 on 3rd down and No. 5 in the red zone. This came despite the Giants ranking 24th in yards per play allowed and ranking 25th in takeaways (19).
The defense is not guaranteed to make a big leap this year either. The Giants drafted a few corners who could be Week 1 starters, including 1st-round pick Deonte Banks. But perhaps the biggest way for this defense to improve is for Kayvon Thibodeaux to take a huge step forward in his 2nd season. He only had 4.0 sacks and 18 pressures in his rookie season.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
Outside of a very winnable Week 2 game in Arizona, the Giants are going to be tested early, especially on defense. Five of the first 6 games for the Giants are against the Cowboys (Week 1), 49ers (Week 3), Seahawks (Week 4), Dolphins (Week 5), and Bills (Week 6). They will also see Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in Week 8.
A trip to New Orleans late in the season could be challenging as the Saints are another team favored to win their division. But the games with the Eagles are not until Weeks 16 and Week 18. By then, we should know exactly where the Giants stand in this race.
But with so many tough games throughout the year, this over/under line of 7.5 probably hinges on what the Giants do against Washington in Week 11, a wild card of a team thanks to the unpredictable nature of Sam Howell possibly starting in Eric Bieniemy’s new-look offense as Ron Rivera tries to save his job.
It was a 20-20 tie when the teams first met last year, then the Commanders lost to a goal-line stand in the rematch. Otherwise, it could have been Washington in New York’s place in the playoffs.
The Pick
Look for the tough early schedule to put the Giants behind the pack early, and for the Saints and Eagles to finish them off late in the year. Take the under 7.5 wins for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 New York Giants Under 7.5 Wins (-118) at BetRivers
2022 Recap: New York’s Most Fun in a Decade
Between the Jets and the Giants, the last decade has been a rough one for New York football fans. But the Giants were able to end their playoff drought in Brian Daboll’s first year as he showed early he was willing to take some risks when he went for a 2-point conversion to beat the Titans 21-20 in Week 1.
Of course, the Giants lose that game if the Titans just make a 47-yard field goal at the buzzer, but New York was rolling in close victories to start 2022. Daniel Jones was 3-14 at game-winning drive opportunities before 2022, but he became the first quarterback in NFL history last year to lead 5 game-winning drives in his team’s first 7 games.
That explains how the Giants, who were the blitz-happiest defense in the league, got off to a nice 6-1 start. But the fact that Jones never had another game-winning drive until the wild card win in Minnesota helps to explain why the Giants were 3-6-1 in the final 10 games of the regular season.
Getting a tie and win over Washington proved to be very helpful in getting the Giants into the playoffs. Otherwise, the Giants struggled in the 2nd half of the season, going 0-3 against the Eagles in games that were not particularly close.
Scoring Consistency
The other oddity about the 2022 Giants was just how consistent they were at scoring 16-to-27 points. They did that 15 times last year, or 2 more games in that scoring range than any team in NFL history for a single season. The Giants only scored more than 27 points against the Colts (Jeff Saturday’s interim job) and the Vikings (terrible defense).
The Giants had a good read on Minnesota’s defense last year, and those games brought out the best in Jones. But overall, he did not have a real breakout year under Daboll. It was Saquon Barkley who was having his best season since his rookie year of 2018, but he too would decline in the 2nd half of the year.
By the time the Giants faced the Eagles in the divisional round, it was clear they weren’t playing the Minnesota defense anymore. The Eagles practically had that game won at halftime before going on to win 38-7 against the outmatched Giants.
