The Dallas Cowboys always have high expectations, but with the Philadelphia Eagles winning Super Bowl 59 and the Washington Commanders reaching the NFC Championship Game for the 1st time since the 1991 season, this is about as 3rd rate as the Cowboys have been going into a season for quite a long time.
Things went so poorly at the start last year with the defense falling off and Dak Prescott turning in arguably his worst season even before the injury. It led to the Cowboys moving on from coach Mike McCarthy and replacing him with Brian Schottenheimer, who has been around the game for decades thanks to his father, and he’s been on the Dallas offensive staff already the last few seasons.
But the emergence of Jayden Daniels and the elite talent on the Eagles on both sides of the ball leaves Dallas in a pickle on getting back to the postseason and finally snapping this long drought without reaching the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season.
At least they should be healthier this year. So, before heading to the online sportsbooks, these are our favorite player props and team props for how the Cowboys will perform in 2025 after a 7-10 finish in 2024.
The Picks
- Dak Prescott Over 26.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110)
- George Pickens Over 900.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110)
- 2025 Cowboys Over 7.5 Wins (-135) at Bet365
- Division Finishing Position – NFC East – Dallas Cowboys – 3rd Position (+130)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
National Football Conference Odds
Dak Prescott
- Over/Under 26.5 Passing Touchdowns
In the 2020s, Dak Prescott, the longest-tenured quarterback in the NFL today, has become a prolific passer with a 17-game average pace of 4,590 yards and 34 touchdown passes. That’s how you end up becoming the NFL’s 1st $60 million quarterback after his record-signing extension before the 2024 season.
However, he has been seriously injured in 3-of-5 seasons since 2020, and the Cowboys struggled to win with him last season (3-5 as a starter). Now he has to win with a new head coach, but there is at least a working relationship already in place with Schottenheimer, so the offense shouldn’t change that drastically.
With the trade for George Pickens, the Cowboys upgraded their WR2 position to get someone who is a WR1 in his own right, but Pickens has immature/professionalism problems that hopefully CeeDee Lamb can take him under his wing and improve. But Pickens is a talented player, and it gives the Cowboys a couple of really good options at wide receiver to go along with tight end Jake Ferguson.
Prescott has thrown 30, 37, and 36 touchdowns in his last 3 full seasons, so over 26.5 is certainly in his wheelhouse. He should be healthier this year, but maybe the real reason to trust this over is the lack of trust in the Dallas defense to get back to playing well. The Cowboys could be in a lot of shootouts and high-scoring games again, which should only help with Dak’s touchdown pass total.
We’ll take the over for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Dak Prescott Over 26.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110) at Bet365
George Pickens
- Over/Under 900.5 Receiving Yards
The writing was on the wall for George Pickens after the D.K. Metcalf trade earlier this offseason. With Metcalf being such a similar receiver to Pickens, it wasn’t a great fit to have them as your top 2 leading receivers. Throw in the immaturity that Pickens showed when he didn’t get the ball, and it never looked likely that the Steelers were going to extend him on a 2nd contract. So, they traded him to Dallas to get what they could.
Sure, it’s a nice trade for Dallas, which hasn’t had a good WR2 situation behind CeeDee Lamb in recent years. But let’s not necessarily blame that on Prescott and Schottenheimer. They were dealing with the likes of a washed-up Brandin Cooks, a post-injury Michael Gallup, and trying to feed Jalen Tolbert the ball.
The Hands Are There
Pickens has incredible skills but has rarely had a quarterback who can consistently get him the ball. He should have that now, and Schottenheimer is actually a good person to oversee this offense as he had Metcalf in Seattle in 2019 when Metcalf was a rookie and Schottenheimer was the offensive coordinator.
That was also with Russell Wilson at quarterback, who Pickens played with last year, so Schottenheimer should have a good vision for how to use him in Dallas and how to get good usage out of him as a deep threat and intermediate threat while Lamb still gets so much volume.
In 2019 with Seattle, Tyler Lockett had 1,057 receiving yards while a rookie Metcalf had 900 yards, and that was in a 16-game season. Throw in a 17th game for a team that’s likely going to trail more this season (compared to 2021-23) and have to throw the ball more, and those are very doable numbers for Pickens and for Lamb (over/under 1150.5 yards).
There’s always a chance that Pickens doesn’t pick up the new offense that well in Year 1 in a reduced role, but his physical talent is still good enough to trust him to clear 900 yards. It’s the mental part of the game he needs to give more effort to.
NFL Pick: George Pickens Over 900.5 Receiving Yards (-110) at Bet365
CeeDee Lamb
- Over/Under 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns
If you connect the dots on our picks on Prescott and Pickens, then it should be a passing offense with better quarterback play than last year, and a better WR2 option than they’ve had in years. That should equal better opportunities for Lamb to score touchdowns if the offense is more productive and has more red-zone opportunities.
Lamb is a better player to move around (slot to outside) than Pickens, and Pickens isn’t a huge touchdown scorer anyway. Lamb had 6 touchdowns last year in 15 games, but it’s hard to believe he didn’t get a 7th if Prescott played another half of the season. Lamb caught 12 touchdowns in 2023.
He may not see 12 again, but we’ll gladly take the over 6.5 touchdowns at nearly even odds here. It’s not like Dallas has really solved the running back dilemma and found a back who is going to score a ton of times.
NFL Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-1100) at Bet365
2025 Cowboys Regular Season Wins
- Over 7.5 wins (-135)
- Under 7.5 wins (+105)
It may be worth noting that the Cowboys haven’t finished under 8 wins in consecutive years since the dreaded Dave Campo seasons when the Cowboys finished 5-11 every year in 2000-02. This team has too much talent for that type of decline, but as always, let’s check the schedule.
No Holiday Break
You have to figure they can get 2-to-3 wins in the division mostly thanks to Dak’s mastery of the Giants, but the Eagles and Commanders are tougher than usual.
A trip to Chicago in Week 3 could be difficult if coach Ben Johnson is the real deal. Likewise, a trip to Denver in Week 8 is a rough place to play against a team that made the playoffs last year, and Dallas will host the Chiefs (Thanksgiving) and Chargers later in the year.
A game in Detroit a week after Thanksgiving is never easy as the Lions made sure to pour it on Dallas last year for revenge for 2023’s controversial officiating ending.
No Easy Mile
It’s a tough schedule when you’ve been relegated to maybe the 3rd-best team in your own division that you share with the NFC finalists from a year ago. Then the NFC North had an incredible year last season and may not have a bad team this year. Then the AFC West had 3 playoff teams, and you have to play them too.
It’s easy to see why the win total is so low for a Dallas team that’s had some questionable drafts in recent years and questions of depth after not having the money to get great free agents.
A coaching change and healthy Dak should bring enough positive change for the Cowboys over last year’s disappointing 7-10 season. But it’s hard to see much improvement, so maybe there is more value on the under 8.5 wins alternate line (-150 at Bet365) than there is on the -135 odds for over 7.5 wins.
Alas, let’s go with over 7.5 wins as the changes are enough to at least get 1 win above last year.
NFL Pick: 2025 Cowboys Over 7.5 Wins (-135) at Bet365
2025 Cowboys – NFC East Finish
While we just picked the Cowboys to barely finish over 7.5 wins, that’s certainly not a ringing endorsement for them returning to the playoffs or winning the NFC East, a division that hasn’t had a repeat winner since the Eagles in 2001-04.
But one pick we were so confident in for the Eagles already was that Philadelphia and Washington would finish in the top 2 positions (doesn’t matter which order) in the NFC East in 2025. The Eagles are still the most talented roster and the Commanders added big pieces around a quarterback who was incredible as a rookie.
That leaves the Cowboys and Giants fighting for 3rd place, and this is where the best Dallas bet lies as the Cowboys should finish 3rd for +130 odds. They still own the Giants, who only threw some darts at the quarterback position and could be starting Russell Wilson for much of this year. Coach Brian Daboll won a lot of close games in the 1st half of his rookie year, but it’s been a mess ever since.
Dallas still has several very talented players, but it just lacks good depth and an experienced head coach. But we’ll trust Dak over whichever quarterback the Giants use this year, so that should be enough for the Cowboys to finish 3rd.
Owner Jerry Jones won’t like it, but we like the odds that much.
NFL Pick: Division Finishing Position – NFC East – Dallas Cowboys – 3rd Position (+130) at Bet365
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-GAMBLER
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
