While NFL teams are starting OTAs this week, we’re still looking with great anticipation at the best value picks at top-rated sportsbooks for the preseason win totals for the 2025 NFL season.
You know every season is different, and some teams will rise or decline by several games. We wanted to find some losing teams who should improve into winning teams this year, and which winning team takes a step back below .500 this year.
The Picks
- Atlanta Falcons Over 8.5 Wins (+120)
- San Francisco 49ers Over 10.5 Wins (+100)
- Pittsburgh Steelers Under 8.5 Wins (-140)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Best Super Bowl Odds
Atlanta Falcons – O/U 8.5 Wins
After a disappointing 8-9 finish, the Atlanta Falcons have the following odds at Bet365 for their 2025 win total:
- Over 8.5 wins (+120)
- Under 8.5 wins (-150)
The Falcons were supposed to make the playoffs last year, something they haven’t done since 2017. But Kirk Cousins was a bust when he wasn’t facing Tampa Bay, then Raheem Morris’ defense did not deliver. Adding Justin Simmons and Matt Judon late in free agency did not have the desired impact on the defense.
In fact, the Falcons still had a shot to finish 10-7, but they lost the last 2 games of the season after allowing a touchdown in overtime to the Commanders and Panthers. That spoiled some clutch moments from rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who took over for Cousins and looked very promising.
Penix Era Begins in Atlanta
Penix is the starter in Week 1 now, and he has weapons around him in a tall wideout (Drake London), a capable tight end (Kyle Pitts), and a young running back with immense talent (Bijan Robinson). The Falcons should start cooking again on offense as long as Penix develops as hoped. This is ahead of schedule for his job in Atlanta, but no use crying over past mistakes like giving Cousins all that money and using such a high pick on Penix. It’s his team now.
But a 2nd-year quarterback who barely got to play and a 2nd-year coach who got more pieces to use on defense sounds like a great combo for a team that should improve on an 8-9 record. The Falcons used a pair of 1st-round picks on the pass rush to get James Pearce Jr. and Jalon Walker in what should be very beneficial moves to this defense. They fit Morris’ scheme well.
A Favorable Path in the NFC South
Then you have to consider the schedule, of course. The NFC South isn’t an overwhelming division, and Atlanta swept Tampa Bay last year. The Saints could be really bad this year, and the Panthers still have a lot to prove. The Falcons could go 4-2 or better in the division.
They also get Minnesota in Week 2, and J.J. McCarthy has even less experience than Penix, so that could be a great time to get him and confuse him in his 2nd start. The Falcons also get most of their toughest games (Commanders, Bills, and Rams) at home, so that can help. They play the AFC East teams, and Buffalo aside, that may not be a bad draw at all this season.
The Falcons have become synonymous with disappointment, and this 7-year drought without the playoffs is the longest for the team since 1983-90. But if that drought is going to end, it’s because the Falcons got it right at coach and quarterback again, and with the focus on improving the pass rush in the draft, let’s believe in this team to get it done and finish 9-8 or better for your NFL picks.
But it remains to be seen if 9-8 is good enough for the playoffs.
NFL Pick: Atlanta Falcons Over 8.5 Wins (+120) at Bet365
San Francisco 49ers – O/U 10.5 Wins
Coming off a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs, the 49ers repeated their history by having a losing season and missing the playoffs. They have the following odds at Bet365 for their 2025 win total:
- Over 10.5 wins (+100)
- Under 10.5 wins (-130)
You have to give it up to the 49ers for their consistency. In all 22 seasons since 2003, they’ve either had a non-winning record and missed the playoffs (15 times), or they’ve been to the NFC Championship Game (7 times) or better. It’s a real all-or-nothing approach, and last year was a big disappointment.
Injuries Derail Another Promising Season
But you can also blame a ridiculous rash of injuries on both sides of the ball for the 6-11 finish, which was very similar to 2019-20 when the 49ers turned a close Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs into a 6-10 season in 2020 with a ton of injuries.
Last year, the 49ers were so banged up at the skill positions that one of their healthiest players was rookie Ricky Pearsall, and he was shot before the season in a robbery attempt. Christian McCaffrey barely played, Brandon Aiyuk tore his ACL and missed most of the season, and even George Kittle was banged up.
But the 49ers should be healthier in 2025 as injuries often regress to the mean, and last year was significantly bad on that front. They also blew a 4th-quarter lead in pathetic fashion to each division rival, or else they would have won the NFC West even with the injury bug.
Purdy’s Price Tag and Potential
There’s a lot of talk about the huge contract they gave Brock Purdy at $53 million per season, but that’ll look like a bargain in a few years if Purdy plays up to the level he has in the past in this offense. He’s the only quarterback to ever lead 3 go-ahead scoring drives in the 4th quarter and overtime of a playoff game and lose. One stop on defense against Mahomes and Purdy has a ring.
Give him McCaffrey and Aiyuk to go along with the development of Pearsall and Jauan Jennings, and there is plenty of firepower in this offense to be an elite unit again under coach Kyle Shanahan, who is supposed to be a genius for that.
But the defense also reloaded in the draft and could be healthier this year too. They also have a new coordinator, and let’s not forget the big advantage that is their 2025 schedule.
The 49ers’ first 4 opponents didn’t make the playoffs last year. More than that, the 49ers do not play a single team that won 11-plus games in 2024. They also get a late bye (Week 14) to recover, and 3-of-4 games at home to end the season against teams like the Titans, Bears, and Seahawks.
Window Narrowing but Still Wide Enough
This team’s window is not fully open anymore with the ages of Trent Williams, Kittle, CMC, and they also lost Deebo Samuel and Dre Greenlaw. But there is more than enough elite talent still here that the 49ers have a great opportunity to go over 10.5 wins and get back on top of the NFC West and compete for that Super Bowl again.
NFL Pick: San Francisco Over 10.5 Wins (+100) at Bet365
Pittsburgh Steelers – O/U 8.5 Wins
The Steelers can set an NFL record with their 22nd-straight non-losing season, but they are favored to have a losing record according to the latest odds at Bet365 for their 2025 win total:
- Over 8.5 wins (+110)
- Under 8.5 wins (-140)
Everyone knows Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record since taking the job in 2007, but he’s been 8-8 several times. He also hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season, and he still doesn’t know exactly who his quarterback is this season.
The Rodgers Dilemma
This Aaron Rodgers story is one of the weirdest in NFL history, as pundits criticize Rodgers for not showing up to OTAs even though he doesn’t have a contract with the team as we head into June. There have been a lot of assumptions for months that he’ll sign eventually, but until it happens, it’s hard to pencil him in as having anything to do with this team in 2025.
However, the Rodgers dilemma is why waiting to bet this line may work out better, as it’s likely the odds for under 8.5 wins get worse if Rodgers officially signs in Pittsburgh. We’ll be going through Jets déjà vu with the idea that a strong defense will help Rodgers to a winning record and the playoffs again, a place where he hasn’t been since the 2021 season.
Let’s not forget he’s coming off a 5-12 season where he didn’t move well, and he’ll be 42 years old in December, the kind of age that only a handful of quarterbacks have ever been relevant at in NFL history.
A Depleted Offense and Poor Fit
The Steelers also traded George Pickens to Dallas, so Rodgers is basically stuck with D.K. Metcalf at wide receiver and little else as the team didn’t even draft another weapon. They also have a shaky offensive line, so there could be protection issues that may not mesh well with a 42-year-old quarterback.
There’s also the fact that the Steelers love grinding out close wins, and that’s never been a big part of Rodgers’ game in his entire career. He’s never had more than 3 4th-quarter comebacks or 4 game-winning drives in a season in his career, and last year, he saw the Jets blow a league-high 6 leads in the 4th quarter.
It’s not the greatest personality fit with Tomlin and Rodgers, and the roster is aging on the defensive side while facing a lot of uncertainty on offense. Let’s also not forget the schedule is tough as the Bengals and Ravens are still in this division, and the Steelers will face the Packers, Chargers, Bills, and Lions out of the division. Most of those games are later in the season, too, when injuries have set in, and we know the Steelers lost their last 5 games in 2024.
Rodgers or not, this feels like the year where Pittsburgh’s streak of non-losing seasons ends, and they finish no better than 8-9. But again, you may want to chance it that there will be better odds for that line in the future. Right now, the sportsbooks aren’t buying Mason Rudolph as QB1 against this schedule either.
NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers Under 8.5 Wins (-140) at Bet365
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-GAMBLER
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
