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OddsTrader’s NFL Power Rankings After Week 9: Halfway Point of the Regular Season

Devin Singletary Josh Allen Buffalo Bills
Devin Singletary 26 celebrates with Josh Allen 17 of the Buffalo Bills after Allen ran the ball in for a touchdown in the second quarter of the Week 9 game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on November 06 2022 ElsaGetty ImagesAFP

With nine weeks in the books, we are halfway through the NFL’s 2022 regular season. You could write every year that “it’s been a crazy start to the season” but this time it would actually be true. We need some power rankings to sort this craziness out.

That’s why OddsTrader takes an in-depth look at the 32 teams using a customized algorithm that separates the wheat from the chaff. We also add a little spice as we take into account each team’s next matchup to determine if there is a betting edge based on our number and the average line.

If you want to know more about how our tool works, feel free to check our 2021 Week 1 post.

Now, let’s get into it as some of the NFL’s greatest franchises and quarterbacks have losing records and losing streaks that we have never seen from them before, including:

  • Tom Brady’s 4-5 Buccaneers
  • Aaron Rodgers’ 3-6 Packers
  • The 2-6 Steelers
  • Sean McVay’s 3-5 Rams

Things have also not gone well for veteran quarterbacks Matt Ryan (Colts) and Russell Wilson (Broncos) on new teams.

Meanwhile, the New York teams had the worst record in the NFL since 2017, but the Giants are 6-2 and the Jets are 6-3. Even the Minnesota Vikings are 7-1 with a quarterback (Kirk Cousins) who is the best in history at staying a game within .500 year after year. We haven’t even mentioned Geno Smith leading the league in completion percentage for a 6-3 Seattle team that leads the NFC West.

The Bills have been the Super Bowl favorites all year long, but the Eagles remain undefeated at 8-0. Which team is better? Our power rankings are based on what teams have shown us through the first half of this season

1. Buffalo Bills (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)

  • At home vs. Vikings. Power Line: +11.5

The Bills are still No. 3 in scoring offense and No. 1 in scoring defense. But these first two games out of the bye after vanquishing the Chiefs on the road, are starting to feel like 2021 when the Bills peaked in Week 5 in Kansas City.

It is a long season and injuries are always a big deal. The hope is Josh Allen avoided a serious elbow injury and will be fine, but he has already slipped from the MVP lead to third place after throwing four picks in his last six quarters. This team cannot get complacent this early after being the favorites since the preseason.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS)

  • At home vs. Jaguars. Power Line: +8.5

Plenty of teams have better defenses and running games than the Chiefs, but there is only one Patrick Mahomes. He showed it again on Sunday night against Tennessee when he had to carry the offense, and he threw for 446 yards and rushed for 63 more yards.

The comeback win has him on top of the MVP leaderboard for the first time this season.

The Chiefs may not have Tyreek Hill as a security blanket in big moments or a championship-caliber defense like they had in 2019, but they still have Andy Reid dialing it up for Mahomes and Travis Kelce. That’s going to be enough to win most games.

3. Dallas Cowboys (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS)

  • On the road at Packers. Power Line: -1

If Dak Prescott can get back on track with Michael Gallup to give this team close to the passing offense it had in 2021, then this is the best team the Cowboys have had since 2014. If not, since the 2007 team. The defense being legitimately great, led by Defensive Player of the Year favorite Micah Parsons, instead of being a unit that relies on takeaways is a huge difference from last year.

We’ll see what happens with the running backs going forward, but if the Cowboys are going to beat the Eagles in a big game or score on the 49ers in a playoff rematch from last year, giving Tony Pollard more touches than Ezekiel Elliott might be the key to that.

But this is one of the few teams in the NFL capable of finishing in the top five on both sides of the ball.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS)

  • At home vs. Commanders. Power Line: +2

The Eagles have not faced the toughest schedule on the way to this 8-0 start, but the team’s domination in the second quarter has been nothing short of historic. The Eagles have scored 133 points in the second quarter, the most through eight games in NFL history.

This early dominance has led to the Eagles not trailing for a second after the two-minute warning in the first half of any game so far. If this team has a weakness, it is well hidden.

5. San Francisco 49ers (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)

  • At home vs. Chargers. Power Line: +2

Kyle Shanahan has never had a career-winning record as a head coach in the NFL. It could happen if this team gets hot and goes on a run like the oddsmakers are expecting, but this team first has to deliver at home against the Chargers on Sunday night.

The Christian McCaffrey trade was a wise move since it prevented the Rams from getting him, but if this team loses the division to the Seahawks? It’s going to be a bad look for Shanahan.

6. Seattle Seahawks (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)

  • On the road at Buccaneers. Power Line: +6

After nine games, it is hard to deny Geno Smith is having a legitimately strong season. Ever since Week 6, the defense has turned things around and rookie back Kenneth Walker has exploded onto the scene, this team has flourished with Smith throwing accurately to one of the best receiving duos in the league (DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett).

Shockingly, the Seahawks have won four games in a row by double digits, something the team only did once during the Russell Wilson era with a seven-game streak in 2014.

7. Tennessee Titans (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS)

  • At home vs. Broncos. Power Line: +6.5

Few coaches have ever been as good as an underdog like Mike Vrabel. But with the Titans gaining one first down on their final 10 drives in Kansas City, it was only a matter of time before Patrick Mahomes would get the upper hand.

Still, that game showed this team can compete with one of the best teams on the road. If Ryan Tannehill can come back healthy, they may have a puncher’s chance at another deep playoff run, but without wide receiver A.J. Brown, it’s never going to result in a Super Bowl. Too limited on offense this year.

But they will make you fight for the win.

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5 SU, 2-6-1 ATS)

  • At home vs. Seahawks. Power Line: -6

When you bring a stake to Dracula’s heart, you are supposed to drive it through. The Rams let Tom Brady off the hook, and he made them pay with a potentially season-changing comeback win.

In the last five games, Tampa Bay’s only turnover is a muffed punt. The defense ranks fifth in points allowed. If the offense can just find a way to finish more drives with touchdowns instead of field goals or passes short of the sticks on third down, then this team is going to be scary again.

Playing in the worst division in the league is going to keep them alive all year as well.

9. Los Angeles Rams (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS)

  • At home vs. Cardinals. Power Line: +3.5

If you were skeptical of Matthew Stafford being a huge upgrade over Jared Goff when the Rams made the trade, this 2022 season is probably what you had in mind. But it’s been worse than expected with the Rams having no answers on how to get the running game going, and Stafford is just not interested in Allen Robinson.

But Sean McVay was at his worst in the fourth quarter in Tampa. He went from the prevent offense to the prevent defense, and now he’s probably going to make Tom Brady believe he can play until he’s 50. Just what we needed.

10. New Orleans Saints (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS)

  • On the road at Buccaneers. Power Line: +1.5

Give the Saints credit for playing so competitively with so many key injuries this year, but that was a fairly lifeless performance at home against the Ravens, who have their own major injuries.

Injuries or not, these Saints are just not recognizable anymore now that Drew Brees and Sean Payton are gone. This team could use a hard reset in the offseason.

It’s a Long Way To the Top

11. Minnesota Vikings (7-1 SU, 3-4-1 ATS)

The Vikings are 6-0 in close games and Kirk Cousins already has a career-high four comeback wins in the fourth quarter. This team is basically a flashier version of the 2022 Giants, a team winning a lot of one-possession games against a soft schedule. But where the Giants have no receiving weapons, the Vikings have Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and just traded for tight end T.J. Hockenson from Detroit.

Still, that ugly loss in Philadelphia felt like vintage Minnesota, which is why it’s hard to trust this team as a real contender. But we’ll learn a lot this week when the Vikings are in Buffalo. It is potentially a season-changing game for both conferences.

12. Green Bay Packers (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS)

Five losses in a row make it look like Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers are just out of answers this year. It was always going to be tough without Davante Adams, but the disappointment of Christian Watson and the constant injuries to the receivers (Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, Romeo Doubs) has turned this into the worst Green Bay offense in over a decade.

Once Rodgers starts losing at home by 17 points and throwing three picks in Detroit, you have to think that this thing may have run its course in Green Bay. We’ll see if he can get it going for a home game against the Cowboys and Mike McCarthy this week.

13. Miami Dolphins (6-3 SU, 4-5 ATS)

The Dolphins have still not lost when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game (6-0) this year, but the exciting thing is seeing the offense light it up in consecutive games, even if they were against the Lions and Bears.

This offense was looking like a one-quarter outlier with that 28-point explosion in Baltimore, but we are starting to see them stack games with the fastest receiving corps in the league and the best play-action passing attack.

14. Chicago Bears (3-6 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

The Bears are still struggling to win games, but we should acknowledge the improvement on offense with Justin Fields and scoring points. Ever since Fields stopped throwing picks and taking sacks like crazy and got his legs involved, this offense has taken off a great deal.

The 2022 Bears are the fourth offense since 1940 to rush for at least 230 yards in four consecutive games. They can set the record with a fifth game the next time they play.

Hey, at the very least, the Bears are interesting to watch on offense. That’s worth something.

15. Atlanta Falcons (4-5 SU, 6-3 ATS)

Now that Cordarrelle Patterson is back, it would be nice to see the Falcons open up the offense with Patterson, Kyle Pitts, and rookie wideout Drake London. This run-heavy offense just doesn’t dominate on the ground enough to justify how few passes Marcus Mariota is throwing each week.

This team still has a chance to win the division, but we need to see more points, and that’s only going to come from more throws.

16. Cleveland Browns (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS)

If the Browns played the rest of the NFL as well as they play the Bengals under Kevin Stefanski, he would look like a genius. But this team has been better than its record. It’s just blown three fourth-quarter leads and Jacoby Brissett is one of the worst quarterbacks in the game at leading game-winning drives.

With Nick Chubb chasing a rushing title and the dominance of Myles Garrett on defense, you can see how this team would love to add Deshaun Watson at quarterback strictly based on his on-field skills. But this team just may be too far back in the race before he comes back for it to matter this year.

17. Arizona Cardinals (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS)

If there is a positive to take away here, it’s that the Cardinals have lost to pretty much all good teams outside of the Rams this year. The Rams were at least the 1-1 defending champions back in Week 3. Arizona has lost to the Chiefs, Eagles, Vikings, and Seahawks (twice).

The team is close most weeks, but the offense is mediocre, and the defense is one of the worst in the league. A coaching change is looking more and more necessary.

18. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS)

Justin Herbert is an elite talent, but he is arguably having his worst season as a quarterback. Or maybe it’s his best given the rib injury and the injuries to his skill players.

Time will tell, but Herbert’s three game-winning drives are pacing this team at 5-3 with an outside shot to still win the division. First, a big test with the 49ers.

19. New York Giants (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS)

The schedule is going to keep making the Giants relevant and a winner this year, but you also have to give them credit for executing late in games, something they did not do much in the last five years.

Brian Daboll has been a good addition and he has got the best version of Saquon Barkley in the NFL. Still, we’d like to see more from the passing game to believe this team has a shot of doing anything this year.

20. Las Vegas Raiders (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS)

Blowing a 17-0 lead against Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead is one thing. Blowing a 17-0 lead to the Jaguars one week after losing 24-0 to the Saints is beyond the pale. If Josh McDaniels can’t win a home game against an Indianapolis team with a studio analyst serving as interim coach, then he should be fired on the field this Sunday.

This team has been a massive disappointment with Derek Carr having one of his worst seasons instead of one of his best with Davante Adams in town. McDaniels and Carr never figured out how to implement Adams into the chemistry with Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller, who were so good for Carr in 2021 when the team snuck into the playoffs with so many close wins. Now they just blow huge leads and lose close games.

The defense is also rotten outside of Maxx Crosby. The Raiders are not last only because they beat the No. 32 team soundly.

21. Denver Broncos (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS)

Mercifully, we got a break from watching Denver as it had a bye. As tough as this offense is to watch, the defense is very good and it will make every game a chance for Denver to win in the fourth quarter, which is what Russell Wilson seems to strive for anyway.

There is still a sliver of hope of this team turning it around, but after some injuries and trading Bradley Chubb to Miami, the pieces necessary for a playoff season just aren’t there.

22. Indianapolis Colts (3-5-1 SU, 3-6 ATS)

If Matt Ryan’s shoulder injury isn’t that bad, he should get his starting job back. He helped this team to a tie with Houston and comeback wins over the Colts, Broncos, and Jaguars. He was making mistakes at an alarming rate, but this offensive line flat-out stinks. Sam Ehlinger is supposed to be mobile and avoid sacks, but he just got dropped nine times by the Patriots.

That 26-3 loss was the end for Frank Reich, but going with Jeff Saturday, who has no relevant coaching experience in the NFL, to be the interim coach is one of the most absurd hires of all time. If this team wins another game, it will be a shocker.

23. Washington Commanders (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

Taylor Heinicke has given this team a little boost after taking over for Carson Wentz (fractured finger), but he is still a limited quarterback. His interception in the fourth quarter was costly in blowing a 10-point lead against Minnesota, which would have been another upset win for this team.

The Commanders have some pieces to keep around for the future, but the quarterback remains the huge missing piece to this franchise.

24. Carolina Panthers (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS)

For two weeks, Carolina fooled us into thinking D’Onta Foreman was going to carry this offense after the Christian McCaffrey trade, and that P.J. Walker might deserve to keep starting.

It had to help that they were division games because the Bengals just annihilated Carolina on Sunday. Walker had a 0.0 passer rating and was benched for Baker Mayfield. Walker is still holding onto the job for at least another game, but this team remains one of the most unwatchable in the league.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS)

Good job to come back against the Raiders, but when you consider it was the third time the Raiders blew a 17-point lead this season, it’s not as impressive as it sounds.

The Jaguars are still not good enough on offense as you’d like to see in Trevor Lawrence’s second season. Travis Etienne is looking great since the team traded James Robinson to the Jets, but Lawrence’s frustrating inconsistency with his accuracy is what will hold this team back in most games.

There’s also the fact that the Jaguars have lost 40 straight games when allowing more than 20 points. See, the Raiders just needed one more score to not blow that game on Sunday.

26. Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6 SU, 3-4-1 ATS)

On the plus side: Pittsburgh’s minus-77 scoring differential is the worst in the league, but the Steelers have only been blown out by the top two teams, Buffalo and Philadelphia. T.J. Watt is coming back this week and can be a real difference-maker in these close games. Chase Claypool’s trade to Chicago should open up more targets for Pat Freiermuth and George Pickens.

On the negative side: Kenny Pickett is throwing picks and not throwing touchdowns at a rate we haven’t seen since Ryan Leaf in 1998. The schedule has been brutal and the offensive coordinator (Matt Canada) stinks, but if Pickett doesn’t improve in this second half, then the Steelers could have a decision to make in the draft.

27. Detroit Lions (2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS)

In past years, Aaron Rodgers absolutely would have ripped out of the hearts of Detroit fans with a touchdown pass in the final seconds.

But the Lions stopped the washed-up version of Rodgers on the least talented version of the Green Bay offense in over a decade. It was finally a win and not just a close loss for Dan Campbell’s bunch.

Still, the worst defense in football has a long way to go to move up to a respectable level this year.

28. Houston Texans (1-6-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)

Credit to Houston for giving the Eagles a better game than many did this year, but it still showed the limitations of this roster. Davis Mills is simply not the answer at quarterback, and the team is going to have to find a new No. 1 receiver with Brandin Cooks so disgruntled right now. At least Dameon Pierce is looking like a fourth-round steal at running back.

On Bye

B. New England Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS)

The Patriots are 5-4 with Elmer’s Glue holding the offense together, and yet it is still last place in the AFC East. That has to annoy Bill Belichick. But the Patriots are still well-coached enough that it’s not going to be an easy game when you play them, regardless of your record.

Still, it is hard to see this team going on a run like it did last year when it briefly looked like it was in the mix for a No. 1 seed. This team will be fortunate just to finish with a winning record.

B. Baltimore Ravens (6-3 SU, 4-4-1 ATS)

The Ravens have been a frustrating team since they lost three games despite leading by double digits, including twice in the fourth quarter. But this is still one of the league’s top teams, with Lamar Jackson’s unique talents, the greatest kicker of all time in Justin Tucker, and Roquan Smith was a good addition to the defense from Chicago.

Losing Rashod Bateman is a bummer, but Mark Andrews should be back soon, and we know the Ravens can make it work with other receivers. If any team is going to break up the Bills-Chiefs AFC Championship Game, it is still Baltimore.

B. Cincinnati Bengals (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS)

When Joe Burrow and the Bengals bring their ‘A’ game, this team looks like one of the best in the league. Cincinnati’s plus-43 scoring differential ranks fifth in the NFL.

The problem is this team blew two winnable games to start the season with the Steelers and Cowboys and they didn’t step up late against the Ravens in a big game, and they continue losing to Cleveland in the Burrow era.

Then the Ja’Marr Chase injury is a big deal, but Joe Mixon scored five touchdowns against Carolina to show that this offense is still going to be potent against the weaker opponents.

Problem is, the remaining schedule is absolutely loaded. Chase needs to get back ASAP.

B. New York Jets (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS)

The Jets were awful against the Patriots and managed to beat the Bills. Figure that one out. This team is definitely improved from last year, but the offense and quarterback Zach Wilson are still too hard to trust. Wilson loves to hold the ball forever before trying a flashy throwaway or forcing a pass he shouldn’t.

It would be a lot easier to pick this team to end its playoff drought if running back Breece Hall didn’t tear his ACL, but it happened. We’ll see how the Jets build on that upset win over the Bills.

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