The NFL Week 4 lineup looks like the best slate yet this season. You get the most important battle ever between 1-2 teams with Ravens vs. Chiefs, a prove-it game for Daniel Jones against the Rams, Philadelphia returning to Tampa Bay, where the Bucs have blown them out 2 years in a row, and don’t forget the NFL taking things to Ireland with Steelers vs. Vikings.
Plenty of great betting opportunities with the schedule. Let’s look at our expert NFL picks in week 4.
Taking Advantage of Defensive Struggles in This Week’s Picks
With September coming to a close, the defenses are generally ahead of offenses around the NFL to start this 2025 season. But some defenses, including the league’s most expensive unit in Pittsburgh, are off to poor starts. The Ravens also come into Week 4 with no team allowing more points than they have, which is a stunning fact.
We have some picks that see teams taking advantage of these struggles as well as another game where a defense has recent bad history against their Week 4 opponent.
Vikings vs. Steelers (+2.5)
The Steelers may be 2-1, but they rank 30th in yards per drive on both offense and defense. Aaron Rodgers just had his fewest yards passing ever in a win (139) against the Patriots.
Still, the Steelers are giving up way too many easy completions as the secondary looks lost, and now they’ll have to deal with Justin Jefferson.
Carson Wentz is a veteran who looked solid in his 1st start for the Vikings last week. He actually gives the team a better shot to get the win here than inexperienced J.J. McCarthy would have. The Steelers don’t do much to disguise their defense, while the Vikings might run the most complex scheme with high variance under coordinator Brian Flores.
We’ll take the Vikings to get the cover as the Steelers have a lot of work to do with this aging roster.
Expert Pick: Vikings -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Eagles vs. Buccaneers (+3.5)
Baker Mayfield has shredded the Eagles at home in the 2023 playoffs and in Week 4 a year ago, games that were as bad as any the Eagles have played in the last 2 seasons.
This year, Mayfield has been down multiple offensive linemen and wide receivers, but he’s still led 3 game-winning drives in the final minute. That’s why we’re skeptical about picking the Bucs to do it again to the Eagles here.
However, Baker will find ways to get points on the board as rookie wideout Emeka Egbuka has been outstanding. There’s also a chance Chris Godwin can play Sunday to give Baker more help.
The Eagles rebounded well in a 26-7 comeback against the Rams as their offense is finally throwing the ball down the field with Jalen Hurts. This feels like a game where both teams are definitely scoring 20 points.
That’s why we love the over 43.5 points as the best bet.
Expert Pick: Eagles/Buccaneers Over 43.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
Ravens vs. Chiefs (+2.5)
Baltimore’s offense has been great, but it has had some red-zone issues with sacks. Derrick Henry has fumbled in the 4th quarter of both losses. With Kansas City’s defense usually having a good plan for Lamar Jackson and playing better ball these last 2 weeks, this matchup should be solid.
The real wild card is Kansas City’s offense vs. Baltimore’s defense.
The Ravens have allowed the most points in the NFL this year, already allowing 38 to Detroit and 41 to Buffalo. The Chiefs have been without their best wideouts, but Xavier Worthy (labrum) is shaping up to return this week. The deep ball has been alive and well for Patrick Mahomes, as he’s connecting every week with Tyquan Thornton.
Mahomes is 5-1 against Baltimore and has shredded far better defenses from John Harbaugh’s team in the past. We’ll back the Chiefs with the points as they can drop the Ravens to 1-3.
Expert Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-105) at BetMGM
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