Two of the best in the business do battle as Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers head to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Packers bounced back last week after a disastrous week 1.
Tampa meanwhile has started off the season well know they’ll be tested here with the injury issues that they have at the skill positions. Let’s break this game down a little further to see where the value is.
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, September 25, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at Raymond James Stadium
Bucs Looking a Little More Balanced
The Todd Bowles era can be described as balanced. He’s clearly made a concerted effort to have more of a run game to support an aging Tom Brady. It’s almost blasphemous at this point to say anything bad about Brady but the reality is, as he continues to defy father time, he’s going to have to get more protection.
In week 1, the Bucs ran the ball 55% and passed it 45%. In week 2 that dipped a little bit but they still ran the ball almost as much (30 times) as they threw it (34 times).
That will allow Brady to protect himself by disguising his intentions through play action. It also makes his ability to audible all that more unpredictable. He’s also getting support from an excellent defense. They’ve only given up two field goals and a touchdown through eight quarters.
In this matchup, Green Bay should really play to the Bucs strengths.
What Do the Odds Say?
The line for this game opened at Bucs -3 and sharp action on the Packers has seen that line steamed down to -1.5.
If you liked the Packers at +3, you’ve missed out on that price because at -1.5, the Bucs are a lot more appealing in what promises to be a good game Sunday.
Packers Will Find Out Who They Are
The problem with only taking 1.5 points with the Packers is we don’t really know who they are. If they’re the team in week 1, this game could get really ugly.
The Bucs linebackers might be the best group in the league and it will be very difficult for this Packers team to run the ball. We all know that Davante Adams is no longer in town, which means Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have that guy he can trust when the going gets tough.
Packers vs. Buccaneers: Our Betting Pick
At -1.5, the Bucs would have to be the play for me. In this specific game, my official play is on the total, not the spread. The total opened at 46 and has been steamed all the way down to 42, which is where it sits at most of the top online sportsbooks. My play for this game will be on the over in this spot.
I think the number has gone too far the other way, with 42 being very low in a game involving Rodgers and Brady. I do understand how bad the Packers looked in their first game and how good the Bucs defense has looked to start why the total is so low.
I mentioned earlier that the Bucs are making more of an effort to run the ball early on this season. That said, I do think both of these teams will score at least 20 points in this game. The Bucs’ one weakness on defense is why I think the Packers can put up points.
Tampa Bay’s pass rush ranks near the bottom of the league in getting pressure on the quarterback through two weeks. If Rodgers has time in the pocket then he will be successful. There is upset potential here, but I’m going to stick with the Over 42 at -110 which is available at Caesars Sportsbook.
NFL Pick: Under 42 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
