The NFL’s Week 13 schedule is sure to feature some outstanding matchups that should shake up our power rankings at OddsTrader as we move into December and the final third of the regular season.
There will be three different games between teams ranked in our top 10, including the Bills-Patriots on Thursday night, then the Titans-Eagles and Chiefs-Bengals on Sunday.
For more information about how our tool works, be sure to check our 2021 Week 1 post.
1. Dallas Cowboys (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS)
- At home vs. Colts
- Betting Edge: +5
From a betting perspective, the Cowboys had a disappointing performance at home on Thanksgiving against the Giants. Dallas only scored one touchdown in the first half as Dak Prescott threw two interceptions, but the Cowboys did rally with three straight touchdown drives to take a 28-13 lead.
But despite leading by 15 points with a first down in the final three minutes, the Cowboys missed a 46-yard field goal, and the Giants were able to cover the 10-point spread with a late touchdown. Little mistakes hurt Dallas on Thursday, and we are looking for the team to clean up some of the interceptions and missed field goals.
We’ll see Dallas again on Sunday night in what should be a big mismatch with the offensive line of the Colts, who looked lost for a big chunk of Monday night’s loss against Pittsburgh. We’ll also see if the Cowboys can woo Odell Beckham Jr. into joining them, but as Thanksgiving showed, this team has plenty of weapons. You know things are going well when they are bypassing Tony Pollard in the end zone to give tight end Peyton Hendershot a touchdown on a jet sweep run.
2. Buffalo Bills (8-3 SU, 5-5-1 ATS)
- On the road at Patriots
- Betting Edge: -1.5
We thought the Minnesota game eased a lot of the concerns about Josh Allen’s elbow injury, but his last two performances in Detroit’s stadium have onlookers wondering again just how much it is impacting his accuracy. He was not at his best on Thanksgiving, but he saved his best throw to Stefon Diggs for the game-winning drive to get past the Lions.
Now we’ll see how the Bills handle the Patriots on the road this Thursday. Last season, it was an extreme wind game in New England that hurt the Bills in a 14-10 loss. But the Bills never had to punt once in their next two meetings with Bill Belichick’s defense.
Maybe the best news in Buffalo is that Von Miller did not tear his ACL after being carted off the field in Detroit. It is more of a meniscus injury, so we could see him return this season. His addition was a crucial part of the plan to get over the hump and win a Super Bowl, so it is great to hear he didn’t suffer a season-ending injury.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-2 SU, 4-6-1 ATS)
- On the road at Bengals
- Betting Edge: -0.5
The Chiefs were in the red zone six times against the Rams and scored just one touchdown. They have been great in that area this season, but Sunday was not a good example of that. The Rams were big underdogs and lingered around after Patrick Mahomes threw a no-look pass in the end zone that was intercepted. But the Chiefs still won 26-10, with the Rams having no offense.
Now the Chiefs get arguably their biggest test of the season outside of the Buffalo rematch. The Bengals swept the Chiefs last year by coming back from big deficits twice. Mahomes had arguably the worst half of his career in the second half of the AFC Championship Game after the Bengals made him hold the ball too long with a three-man rush.
We have not seen Mahomes under a ton of pressure this year, and teams are struggling to defend Travis Kelce more than ever even without Tyreek Hill there. But we’ll see if the Chiefs have learned from their Cincinnati losses and if they can avenge them this week on the road. This is the toughest game the Chiefs have left this regular season.
4. San Francisco 49ers (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS)
- At home vs. Dolphins
- Betting Edge: +5
The 49ers handed the Saints their first shutout since they did it to them in 2001, and they are in first place all alone in the NFC West after the Seahawks lost to the Raiders. But it was not a perfect Sunday, as running back Elijah Mitchell injured his MCL again. He likely won’t return until the playoffs.
Christian McCaffrey is also battling injury again, though it does not sound like anything serious yet. The team has a huge matchup this week with a red-hot Miami team with a coach (Mike McDaniel) who knows Kyle Shanahan’s team and system well.
It should be a stellar matchup between this tough San Francisco defense and that super-fast Miami offense, which also has Jeff Wilson as the lead back after the 49ers traded him earlier this season.
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-4 SU, 4-6-1 ATS)
- At home vs. Broncos
- Betting Edge: +5
Baltimore’s run against the easiest remaining schedule in the league has not gotten off to a strong start out of the bye week. After getting by the Panthers 13-3, they blew a very winnable game in Jacksonville. It was the first time all year the Ravens did not lead by double digits, but they still led 19-10 in the fourth quarter.
The Ravens even regained a 27-20 lead with two minutes left, and the Jaguars had lost 41 straight games when allowing more than 20 points before Sunday’s comeback. The touchdown catch by Marvin Jones was a controversial call, but the play stood, and Justin Tucker was just a little short on what would have been a record 67-yard field goal.
If the Broncos start scoring on the Ravens this week in Baltimore, then for sure we’re sounding the alarm on this team. But that should be a good matchup to get this team back on track before it plays some division games.
It’s A Long Way to the Top
6. Cincinnati Bengals (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS)
- At home vs. Chiefs
- Betting Edge: 0
The Bengals ground out an impressive 20-16 win in Tennessee. They cut down Joe Burrow’s sacks from nine in the playoff meeting to just one on Sunday. They also won the game without forcing a single takeaway on defense.
But the most shocking part was that they outrushed the Titans, who had the No. 1 run defense and Derrick Henry, by a margin of 108-63, and Joe Mixon didn’t even play the game.
Mixon and No. 1 receiver Ja’Marr Chase could both be back for this week’s huge matchup with the Chiefs. The Bengals cannot expect to come back from deficits of 14 or 18 points again like they did last year against the Chiefs. But we’ll see if they can frustrate Patrick Mahomes after halftime adjustments again. This is a big opportunity for the Bengals with the division title still up for grabs after the Ravens slipped up in Jacksonville.
7. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS)
- At home vs. Titans
- Betting Edge: -1.5
The Eagles were able to cover the spread against Green Bay on Sunday night in a wild 40-33 game that saw Aaron Rodgers leave with an injury. But it was an impressive night for the offense, which put up season highs in points (40) and yards (500).
The Eagles rushed for 363 yards with quarterback Jalen Hurts accounting for 157 of those yards. He became the first quarterback in NFL history to rush and pass for 125 yards in one half of a game.
This type of dynamic offensive performance is what we needed to see out of the Eagles if we are to believe they’ll be fine in a playoff game against a defense like the 49ers or Cowboys.
Now we’ll see if the Eagles can avoid an upset by the Titans, who are a great underdog team.
8. New York Jets (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS)
- On the road at Vikings
- Betting Edge: +4
Since the Jets drafted quarterback Zach Wilson with the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, the Jets have had four games where a quarterback passed for 300 yards and three touchdowns. That’s pretty good. The problem is none of those games have been authored by Wilson.
Mike White just had his second such game, the first Jets quarterback to do that since 1983 draft pick Ken O’Brien. Is White the next hidden gem in this league? He’s had a few great performances already in his couple of opportunities. He is accurate and decisive with his throws, and the Jets seem content with letting him run the show, unlike when Wilson is the quarterback.
This quarterback switch could be the move that saves the Jets’ season, but we’ll find out just how legitimate White is when he takes on the Vikings and Bills on the road the next two weeks.
9. New England Patriots (6-5 SU, 6-4-1 ATS)
- At home vs. Bills
- Betting Edge: +1.5
The Patriots got a surprising, career-high 382 yards out of Mac Jones in Minnesota on Thanksgiving, but the team still lost 33-26 after allowing a kick return touchdown and getting hosed on a Hunter Henry touchdown reversal thanks to the NFL’s ridiculous catch rules.
The performance of the offense was encouraging, and we’ll need to see more of that down the stretch as the Patriots navigate this tough schedule against the Bills (twice), Bengals, and Dolphins.
With Buffalo coming to town this Thursday night, the weather forecast does not call for extreme wind to give the Patriots an edge. Unless Bill Belichick can summon Mother Nature to go his way again, it looks like the Patriots are going to have to throw more than three passes to win this week.
10. Tennessee Titans (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS)
- On the road at Eagles
- Betting Edge: +1.5
That was definitely a letdown against the Bengals last week, but at least Ryan Tannehill avoided any bad interceptions in a big game. He has passed for over 250 yards in three straight games, and rookie wide receiver Treylon Burks is finally coming on for this offense.
But the Titans will need to find a way to get Derrick Henry going again if they are going to upset the 10-1 Eagles on the road. Henry has averaged 2.8 yards per carry over the last three games and fumbled at the end of a 69-yard catch against the Bengals.
We’ll see if head coach Mike Vrabel can live up to his reputation with the Titans a 5-point underdog in Philadelphia. As an underdog of at least 4 points, Vrabel is 14-4 ATS and 12-6 SU, two incredible records.
