Some of the best games this week include rematches after upsets in the first meetings between the Jets-Bills and Browns-Bengals, and we’ll see the first matchups this year between the Eagles-Giants and Ravens-Steelers.
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1. Dallas Cowboys (9-3 SU, 8-4 ATS)
- At home vs. Texans
- Betting Edge: +6
If the Cowboys can outscore the Colts 33-0 in the fourth quarter, imagine what they can do to the Houston Texans, the worst team in the NFL. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott are going to feast like they’ve never feasted before this week. These big spreads usually feel like a trap, but this is such a mismatch if the Cowboys decide to take the game seriously with more important games coming up.
Dallas is the second team in NFL history to pitch a 33-0 shutout in the fourth quarter, and the last one happened in 1925 (Milwaukee Badgers vs. Chicago Cardinals). That was an impressive finish, but the team did show some struggles with the Colts in the first three quarters. Then the Colts couldn’t stop turning the ball over.
But for this week, the Cowboys are getting a Houston offense that allowed three return touchdowns on Sunday to Cleveland, and two were Kyle Allen turnovers. No matter which quarterback the Texans start, he’s in trouble against this Dallas defense.
2. Buffalo Bills (9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
- At home vs. Jets
- Betting Edge: +0.5
Buffalo’s AFC East revenge tour starts here. The Bills lost 20-17 in New York in Week 9 despite leading 14-3 early. Josh Allen tossed two bad interceptions and took five sacks against a solid defense. But now the Jets are going with Mike White, who is a better quarterback than Zach Wilson, though he did toss four picks against the Bills in 2021.
It could look like a much different game with the Bills starting to feature rookie back James Cook as they find their running game, and the Jets are going to the air often now with White.
Von Miller will likely be out again on defense, but the Bills were impressive in holding the Patriots to 10 points last week. With the Bills back in position for the No. 1 seed and the odds-on favorites to win Super Bowl 57, this is a huge game for them to inch another step closer to doing everything they set out to do in the regular season.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-3 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
- On the road at Broncos
- Betting Edge: +2
The Chiefs definitely look to have a Cincinnati and Buffalo problem. If it weren’t for the Bills’ mental mistakes in the final 13 seconds of that playoff game, the Chiefs would be 0-6 against these two rivals since 2021. It is no longer a question of whether those teams can beat the Chiefs, but if the Chiefs can still beat these teams in a big game.
But for the rest of the regular season, the Chiefs are going to be favored in every game and can still finish 14-3 and claim the top seed if the Bills slip just once. What looked like a great matchup when the schedule was released, the first between Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson in Denver, is now a big spread with the Broncos unable to score this year.
However, the Broncos play Mahomes better than most defenses, so this could be a tight game that is low scoring. The Chiefs aren’t in the business of losing two in a row, but they need to start tightening up on defense. Things are really bad if Russell Wilson decides to break out this week.
4. San Francisco 49ers (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS)
- At home vs. Buccaneers
- Betting Edge: +6.5
The team with the No. 1 defense and arguably the most talented group of skill players in the league has now lost two quarterbacks to season-ending injuries. The preseason question was Trey Lance or Jimmy Garoppolo, but the answer now is Brock Purdy. At least that’s the answer in Week 14, as the rookie will make his first start against none other than Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
Purdy was very solid in getting the win over a decent Miami team on Sunday, but things can be a bit different when you prepare for the start and your opponent prepares for you too. The Buccaneers also have one of the top defenses, so this could be an interesting one to watch. A huge rematch with Seattle looms on a short week in Week 15 too.
There is really no better situation for a rookie to jump into right now, but the fact remains that in 56 seasons, no rookie quarterback has ever started the Super Bowl, let alone win one. There is a first for everything, but the 49ers have some big work ahead of them. Starting this run with Purdy by knocking off Brady and the Seahawks would be a great boost of confidence.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS)
- On the road vs. Giants
- Betting Edge: 0
The Titans are usually competitive, but the Eagles shredded them 35-10 and shut down Derrick Henry. It was one of the most impressive performances of the season against a division leader.
According to Elias, the Eagles are just the third offense in NFL history to have a two-game stretch where they had at least 350 passing yards in one game and at least 350 rushing yards in the other game. Jalen Hurts has boosted his MVP odds so much with these two games that he is practically neck-and-neck with Patrick Mahomes as the two favorites.
Now, Hurts will try to avenge the worst game of his career. Last year on the road against the Giants, the Eagles lost 13-7 after Hurts completed 14-of-31 passes for 129 yards and a career-high three interceptions. He has grown a lot this year, but we’ll see if he can keep the Eagles rolling with only one loss in this big NFC East matchup.
It’s A Long Way to the Top
6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS)
- At home vs. Browns
- Betting Edge: +2
The Bengals have to be the first team in NFL history to win three games in one calendar year against the same opponent without being in the same division. It is a huge deal when that opponent is the Chiefs, and another 3-point win over them is going to give this team even more confidence should they meet again.
But first, the Bengals have to worry about getting a win over Cleveland, because while Joe Burrow is 3-0 against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, he is 0-4 against Kevin Stefanski’s Browns. This is the first game against Deshaun Watson, who struggled in his return last week. But we’ll see if the Bengals can keep winning, because the No. 1 seed is a possibility.
The return of Ja’Marr Chase is huge. He missed the 32-13 loss in Cleveland, Cincinnati’s worst performance of the season. Burrow should have everything he needs to beat the Browns for the first time.
7. Baltimore Ravens (8-4 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)
- On the road at Steelers
- Betting Edge: +5.5
Are we really going to see the Ravens lose out after losing Lamar Jackson with an 8-4 record for the second season in a row? It happened last year when the Ravens finished 8-9 and Jackson never played again. Now he has an ankle injury that will likely keep him out for the game in Pittsburgh this week.
Tyler Huntley is a capable backup, but the games are always super tight with him in the lineup. He loves to dink and dunk, and he can also run a little, but he’s still no Jackson. But in the six games where Huntley has thrown at least 30 passes, the Ravens are 2-4 with the games decided by a total of 11 points. Baltimore’s last two games have been decided by a single point.
This team struggles to hold leads as it is, but they get a tough test with a Pittsburgh team that has gone four straight games without a turnover. It’s Ravens-Steelers. Expect something decided by a field goal. But beyond this week, the Ravens are going to need Jackson back soon and to get this offense on track.
8. New York Jets (7-5 SU, 7-5ATS)
- On the road at Bills
- Betting Edge: -0.5
The legend of Mike White was so close to growing with the quarterback passing for 369 yards in an attempted comeback in Minnesota. The Jets outgained the Vikings by nearly 200 yards, but a few errors and bad red zone play doomed them.
Still, the Jets were at the 1-yard line while trailing 27-22 in the final minutes. They should have tried to keep running the ball both because it’s more effective than passing and it would burn more clock. But White threw two incomplete passes to end the drive on downs after Braxton Berrios failed to hold onto his fourth-down pass in the end zone. White threw an interception on his final chance on fourth down in the red zone on a second drive.
Now the Jets have to play in Buffalo in a game that figures to be much different than the first meeting, when Zach Wilson was the quarterback. White threw four interceptions against the Bills last year, though most of them were in the second half after the Jets trailed by three touchdowns. He’ll need to be sharper this week, but it’s more on the defense to keep Josh Allen in check again if the Jets are going to pull off a shocking sweep.
9. New England Patriots (6-6 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)
- On the road vs. Cardinals
- Betting Edge: +0.5
The Patriots got another dose of reality that they are well behind the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East after nearly two full decades of it being the other way around. Josh Allen has figured out how to avoid interceptions against Bill Belichick’s defense, and the Patriots only have two takeaways in their last three games.
The New England offense has not turned it over in three straight games, but that unit is still disappointing with quarterback Mac Jones caught voicing his frustrations on the sideline about throwing too many quick passes. He wants bigger plays, so that should be part of the game plan on Monday night.
At 6-6, this is really a must-win game in Arizona, a terrible home team (12-18 ATS since 2019) under Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, if the Patriots are to stay in the playoff hunt. They get the Raiders afterwards, so it is a chance to get to 8-6 before three tough games to close things out.
10. Seattle Seahawks (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS)
- At home vs. Panthers
- Betting Edge: +3.5
With the Seahawks running out of healthy running backs, Geno Smith put the team on his back and passed for a career-high 367 yards against the Rams. He was 3-15 in his career at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities going into Sunday, but his game-winning touchdown pass to DK Metcalf was a huge moment to get the Seahawks to 7-5.
With San Francisco losing Jimmy Garoppolo for the season, there is a better chance for the Seahawks to still win the NFC West. It won’t be easy, but the Panthers are the next opponent in Seattle before a home game with the 49ers.
Carolina likes to run the ball, so the Seahawks will have to show they can stop it after failing to do so for most of the season. Kenneth Walker III could still be out at running back too with an ankle strain, so Smith may have to put the team on his back once again this week.