With the Sun Bowl between Oregon State and Notre Dame approaching, let’s look into our predictions for this game.
Top Pick
- Under 43 (-110) at Bet365
Oregon State Beavers vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Friday, December 29, 2023 – 02:00 PM ET at Sun Bowl
Sam Hartman Knows
I have a special expert who agrees with me that Notre Dame will have trouble scoring: Notre Dame’s starting quarterback Sam Hartman.
Hartman decided to opt out of this game. Initially, this seems like a really weird decision. Given Oregon State’s absences on defense, this game could look like a great chance for Hartman to put up some more good film of himself ahead of the NFL Draft.
Hartman should relish the opportunity because he is exceedingly far from being projected to be the top quarterback drafted. In fact, he ranks towards the bottom, as far as quarterbacks go in the upcoming draft.
So why doesn’t he want to play against Oregon State’s absence-laden defense? The only reasonable answer is that he doesn’t think that he can improve his draft stock in this game.
Deficient Supporting Cast
Instead of Hartman, Steve Angeli will be playing – he’ll be making his first career start. Angeli will have to make do with the deficient supporting cast in which Hartman lacks confidence, as Notre Dame’s top-three leading wide receivers – Chris Tyree, Rico Flores Jr., and Tobias Merriweather – will all sit out. Holden Staes, who started several times at tight end, likewise hit the transfer portal.
The returning wide receivers will be filled with rust, in addition to lacking the same level of ability as the departed starters. Jayden Thomas, for example, has caught all of two passes in 42 snaps since October 7, and Deion Colzie last played on September 16 against Michigan.
Moreover, Notre Dame’s pass protection will be distant from what it was in the regular season because both starting tackles, Blake Fisher and Joe Alt, are opting out.
Angeli won’t be able to count on having his blind side protected when he drops back to pass.
Oregon State’s Depleted Pass Attack
This game is unique because both teams will field depleted pass attacks.
Oregon State will suffer offensively much in the same way that the Fighting Irish will. Starting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has entered the transfer portal. Whereas the Fighting Irish can at least count on their backup quarterback, Oregon State’s backup quarterback has entered the transfer portal.
Therefore, instead of Aidan Chiles, Ben Gulbranson will start this game after throwing exactly one pass in the regular season. Gulbranson will miss the services of Oregon State’s co-leading wide receiver, Anthony Gould, and the Beavers’ leader in receiving touchdowns, Jack Velling. Velling was also his team’s third-leading receiver. Gould opted out and Velling entered the transfer portal.
The Beavers’ offensive line will likewise be depleted, with one sure absence being starting tackle Taliese Fuaga. Two other starting offensive linemen might be absent due to injury.
Notre Dame’s Defense
The Fighting Irish defense will almost be fully intact: two starters will miss the game, which is nothing to worry about.
“Over” bettors will have to rely heavily on star running back Damien Martinez. But Martinez won’t be his usual self without his departed position coach and his declined offensive line. Plus the depleted status of his team’s pass attack will allow Notre Dame’s still well-stocked defense to focus on stopping the run.
In the regular season, the Fighting Irish ranked 33rd nationally against the run. The top rushing attack out of the Pac-12 that Notre Dame faced during the regular season was USC.
The Trojans were the seventh-best rush attack in their conference, ranking two spots behind Oregon State. Against Notre Dame, they ran the ball 37 times and averaged a paltry 2.8 YPC.
Key Defenders
One key figure is JD Bertrand, who is reliably his team’s leading tackler. Bertrand is a leader on Notre Dame’s defense whose communication and sheer presence are invaluable to the unit as a whole.
Top safety Xavier Watts, recipient of the Bronco Nagurski Award that designated him as the nation’s best defensive player, is another key player. He leads the FBS in interceptions. He’s a physical tackler, as one would expect of a former linebacker. His IQ is, moreover, evident in his strong play recognition.
The point here is that Notre Dame has the great defenders that it needs to have in order to field a strong defense for this game.
Takeaway
Oregon State won’t be able to run the ball well, and it won’t pass the ball well against what was the nation’s third-ranked pass defense. The Beavers’ depleted pass attack, though, will force it to try to rely on running the ball.
The same goes for Notre Dame’s offense. Even with its starting running back Audric Estime out, the Fighting Irish do have a pretty good backup running back.
But there’s a reason why Jeremiyah Love saw so few carries compared to Estime – Estime, among other things, had a real nose for the end zone, as evident in his 18 rushing touchdowns – and the Beavers will be able to focus their attention on stopping the run.
One reason why I like the “under” is that the top offensive players that will play for both teams will contribute to the “under” by encouraging a ticking clock.
The key point is that both teams will rely primarily on running the ball, which has the double advantage for the “under” of keeping the clock ticking and of making it hard to sustain drives. It is especially hard to sustain drives without a balanced offense, which both teams will lack given their absences in their pass attack.
NCAAF Pick: Under 43 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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