Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NCAAF odds for Saturday’s Big Ten matchup between Oregon and Michigan.
The Ducks are ranked number one in the country. Can Michigan challenge them? I contend that, no, they cannot. For your best bets, you should invest in Oregon.
NCAAF Pick
- Oregon -14.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, November 02, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Michigan Stadium
Oregon’s Offense Is Well-Tested
Michigan backers will primarily want to talk about the challenge that Michigan’s defense can, so they allege, pose to Oregon’s offense. However, the Ducks’ offense is well-tested, having thrived against defenses that are vastly stronger than Michigan’s.
They have already faced an elite defense, as Ohio State ranks:
- #2 in scoring defense.
- #8 in passing defense.
- #4 in rushing defense.
Despite the elite quality of Ohio State’s defense, Oregon scored 32 points against it. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel was highly efficient and amassed 341 passing yards and two touchdowns. Oregon’s ball-carriers collected a combined total of 155 rushing yards on five YPC.
When we consider whether a strongly favored team should be expected to cover a large spread, we have to consider whether that team can score a lot of points. If that team can score a lot of points, then it obviously has a better chance of scoring enough to cover the spread.
Oregon can absolutely score a lot of points — as in, over 30 — against what is a substantially weaker Michigan defense.
Michigan’s Pass Defense
Whereas Ohio State boasts a high-caliber pass defense that was still no match for the likes of Gabriel, Michigan ranks 63 spots behind the Buckeyes in pass defense.
One issue with Michigan is that it struggles to tackle guys in space. These struggles were apparent last week, during Nick Marsh’s touchdown catch for Michigan State, for example. They were also evident when Michigan struggled to tackle Michigan State running back Nate Carter, who ran for 118 yards on 6.2 YPC.
Against Michigan, opposing pass-catchers are able to gain separation and to find open spaces in which to catch the ball and then carry the ball. Gabriel can take advantage of this because he has a characteristically quick release with which he promptly gets the ball to open pass-catchers.
He, top wide receiver Tez Johnson, and Oregon’s pass attack as a whole benefit from the excellent play designs of their offensive coordinator Will Stein. Stein puts his pass-catching playmakers in positions to succeed in space.
The vast majority of Oregon’s many passing yards are coming after the catch. So, the Ducks will repeatedly force Michigan defenders to try to tackle them in space and they will relentlessly exploit Michigan defenders’ inability to do so.
Oregon’s Ability to Have a Balanced Offense
Oregon is all the more dangerous offensively because it is two-dimensional: while Gabriel is a solid passer, converting over 76 percent of his passes for 2,371 yards, 18 touchdowns, and five interceptions so far, he is also supported by an excellent ground game.
At running back, Jordan James leads Oregon with 800 rushing yards on 5.9 YPC. James can build off of Nate Carter’s success last week, especially since Carter did not have the benefit of a high-level quarterback who can command as much respect from defenses as Gabriel does.
Overall, this is one of the nation’s best offenses, one that scores over 30 points every week and must be expected to do so again on Saturday.
Davis Warren
For Michigan, Davis Warren has been named the starting quarterback in Saturday’s game.
It is truly troubling that this needed to be confirmed because Warren’s competition for the job, Alex Orji, can hardly complete a pass — Orji is completing 54 percent of his passes this season; he is primarily a runner.
Warren is not a runner. But he is also not a downfield-thrower. He very rarely threw even a 20-yard pass against the Spartans last week. Rather than throw deep, he wants to live on the short and intermediate passing game. His pass-catching crew also lacks sufficient talent to beat defenders downfield.
Oregon is very difficult for any team to throw on downfield — the Ducks rank 12th in pass defense. Their talented group of defensive backs includes Jabbar Muhammad, whose coverage skills and open-field tackling ability position him as an NFL Draft prospect.
With the talent in their secondary and given Warren’s limitations as a passer, the Ducks can focus on taking away the underneath throws that Warren relies on.
Michigan’s One-Dimensionality
Michigan’s is very much a one-dimensional offense. Defenses are able to focus on taking away its rush attack. Warren, who was bad enough to be benched for Orji, does not command the respect of opposing defenses.
Because Michigan’s offense is one-dimensional, it struggles to sustain drives. Michigan will struggle to score against an Oregon defense that has allowed a combined total of nine points in its last two games. The Ducks are great at creating havoc and, partly for this reason, reliably shut down drives. Their run defense is strongly improved, complementing their top-level pass defense.
Play-by-play details show how they might give up some rushing yards early in a drive, but then they’ll come up with tackles for loss, limit opposing rush yards, and then force incomplete passes.
Takeaway
Oregon has the firepower on offense to approach 40 points, while Michigan will struggle to reach double digits against the Ducks’ defense. Some folks like Michigan’s defense, but this is not the national championship-winning defense from a year ago. It is one that struggles to tackle in space.
This is a tremendous mismatch that will quickly appear like a blowout.
Once Oregon gains a strong lead, things will fall apart faster for Michigan, because the Wolverines, who rely on running the ball and desperately do not want to be forced to pass, will be pressed to pass against the Ducks’ elite pass defense.
NCAAF Pick: Oregon -14.5 (-110) at Bet365
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