The USC Trojans will aim to regroup and defend their home turf against the Penn State Nittany Lions this Saturday. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best college football odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Over 48 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Penn State vs. USC
Saturday, October 12, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Penn State Shuts Down UCLA
Drew Allar led the Nittany Lions to a 27-11 victory over UCLA, throwing for 237 yards and a touchdown while adding a rushing score. With star running back Nick Singleton sidelined, Penn State turned to its other weapons. Tight end Tyler Warren grabbed a key touchdown just before halftime, and running back Kaytron Allen punched in a one-yard score in the third quarter.
Allar made his presence felt early, opening the scoring with a one-yard plunge in the second quarter. Ryan Barker added two field goals, and Penn State’s defense put the clamps on UCLA after the break, securing their fourth consecutive win at home.
Allen shouldered the ground game in Singleton’s absence, running for 78 yards on 21 carries. Freshman Quinton Martin Jr. also saw increased touches, adding to a backfield that’s been formidable even without its star. Allar stayed sharp throughout, spreading the ball to multiple targets while the defense held UCLA under 100 rushing yards for the third straight week.
Singleton, suited up but ultimately sitting out, left some questions about his availability. Coach James Franklin, who only addresses season-ending injuries, offered no additional details on Singleton’s status.
USC’s Heartbreak in Minnesota
The Trojans fell to Minnesota in dramatic fashion, as Max Brosmer capped off a late drive with a one-yard touchdown plunge to give the Gophers a 24-17 win. Brosmer scored all three of Minnesota’s touchdowns on the ground, overcoming a valiant effort from USC’s offense.
Miller Moss, who had surpassed 300 yards in two of his first four games, faced a tougher challenge against Minnesota’s top-ranked pass defense. He managed just 200 yards and one touchdown on 23-of-38 passing, as the Trojans’ offense sputtered early and never fully hit its stride.
USC’s lone bright spot was running back Woody Marks, who gashed the Gophers for 134 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. However, penalties and missed opportunities once again plagued the Trojans. They’ve now trailed at halftime in three straight games, a troubling pattern that has cost them against top opponents.
A critical unnecessary roughness penalty by linebacker Easton Mascarenas-Arnold on a punt return extended Minnesota’s final drive, setting up Brosmer’s game-winning score. The Trojans racked up eight penalties for 59 yards, a recurring issue for a team struggling to find consistency.
Keys to the Game
With Singleton’s status uncertain, Kaytron Allen will likely be the focal point of Penn State’s run game. Allen’s bruising style has worn down defenses, but Penn State’s 85-yard performance against UCLA was their lowest rushing output of the season. The Trojans’ front seven, vulnerable to physical runners, has allowed over 100 rushing yards in three of their last four games. If Allen can grind out tough yards, it’ll set up Allar for play-action opportunities.
Allar has been efficient, avoiding costly mistakes while spreading the ball to a deep group of receivers. USC’s secondary, anchored by veteran safeties, will need to stay disciplined and capitalize on any errant throws. The Trojans have shown the ability to force turnovers but have been inconsistent in generating pressure, something they’ll need to address against a poised Allar.
For USC, Moss has the arm talent to stretch the field, but he’s been shaky under pressure. Penn State’s pass rush has been relentless, ranking among the nation’s best in sacks. If the Nittany Lions can pin their ears back on obvious passing downs, Moss could find himself under constant duress.
X-Factors
Penn State’s red zone efficiency has been hit-or-miss, and settling for field goals could keep USC in striking distance. The Trojans, meanwhile, have been their own worst enemy, racking up penalties in key moments. If Lincoln Riley’s team can limit the mental mistakes, they’ll have a chance to upset a disciplined Penn State squad.
NCAAF Pick
This game could be tight early, as both defenses look to establish control. Penn State will likely lean on Allen to chew up clock and control the tempo, while Allar takes calculated shots downfield. The Trojans’ defense should keep it close initially, but without sustained drives on offense, Penn State’s relentless front will start to take over.
Moss has the tools to move the ball, but under heavy pressure, turnovers seem inevitable. Expect Penn State’s defense to force a couple of key mistakes, giving their offense short fields and opportunities to pull away. Look for the Nittany Lions to methodically wear down the Trojans and pull away in the second half, securing a hard-fought win.
This game has all the makings of a high-scoring battle, with both teams featuring explosive offensive playmakers. Expect a back-and-forth affair where both sides look to rack up points and outpace each other in a potential shootout.
NCAAF Pick: Over 48 (-110) at Bet365
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