Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Monday night’s showdown between New Orleans and Kansas City.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the “under.” And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Our expert has covered this game by providing some alternative betting angles.
NFL Pick
- Under 42.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Monday, October 07, 2024 – 08:15 PM ET at Arrowhead Stadium
New Orleans’ Offensive Decline
So far, we’ve seen the Saints score over 40 points in two games while, in their other two games, they averaged nineteen points. Which version of the Saints’ offense will we see in this game?
To answer the question, we need to understand that the Saints brought in a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak. His offense initially carried an element of surprise. Defenses, however, have figured Kubiak out, which is why the Saints are averaging 19 points in their last two games.
You can count on Kansas City’s defensive coordinator to figure out how to limit Kubiak’s offense. Steve Spagnuolo is arguably the smartest defensive coordinator in the league, which is why PFF also ranked him as the best defensive coordinator entering this season.
New Orleans’ Disastrous Shift to Running More
Under Kubiak, the Saints are lining up under center and running the ball much more frequently. They lead the NFL in rushing play percentage.
They do not simply want to run more. They like to have Derek Carr run a lot of play-action. For play-action to work, defenders need to respect the opposing offense’s rush attack.
Kansas City’s is exactly the defense that is suited to stop a run-heavy team, as we saw last week when it shut down a run-centered Chargers offense — holding it to 10 points — whose running back, J.K. Dobbins, mustered season-lows in rushing yards and YPC against the Chiefs.
The Chiefs have a high-level group of run-stoppers in their front seven and even in their secondary.
Under Spagnuolo’s leadership and his intelligent and creative deployment of his players, linebackers Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal are using their speed and physicality to stop the run. Video footage shows nickelback Chamarri Conner doing a tremendous job of beating defenders to key spots, setting the edge, and forcing running backs inside where they have to deal with the likes of elite interior defender Chris Jones, who is a five-time All-Pro selection.
New Orleans’ dedication to running the ball will prove effective against teams that can’t stop the run, but it will prove disastrous against the Chiefs, who are one of six teams to be allowing fewer than four YPC.
New Orleans’ Offensive Line Issues
PFF’s grades have indicated the stark problems with New Orleans’ offensive line, which have been especially salient since after the team’s win over what was then a completely impotent Carolina team.
While their offensive line also struggled last year, the Saints have been unfortunate in this regard. Injuries have forced them to have to shift tackle Trevor Penning to different positions along the offensive line. They’ve also had to start a rookie in Taliese Fuaga. The recent loss of starting center Erik McCoy is causing even more problems.
Not only do these offensive line issues cap the potential of New Orleans’ ball-carriers, but they also handicap the Saints’ pass attack. Quarterback Derek Carr is having to get rid of the ball much faster than he is used to doing — the disparity in his TT (time to throw) average in 2022 and his TT average in 2024 is tremendous.
The Saints are limited at wide receiver, with their most-targeted and second-best wide receiver being Rashid Shaheed. Shaheed is primarily known as a deep threat, as a big-play receiver. However, he needs time to go downfield in order to catch long passes, and Carr doesn’t have that time.
Kansas City’s Pass Rush
The Chiefs are well-built to exploit New Orleans’ vulnerable pass protection.
They have much more than just Jones, who currently leads the team with three sacks. Last year, for example, George Karlaftis amassed 10.5 sacks. Spagnuolo’s pressure designs also enabled linebackers and defensive backs to make more plays behind the line of scrimmage.
Stopping Top-Caliber Wide Receivers
Led by the likes of former First-Team All-Pro selection Trent McDuffie at cornerback, the Chiefs have limited the NFL’s best wide receivers, which is bad news for New Orleans’ Chris Olave. Ja’Marr Chase, for example, mustered a season-low 35 receiving yards in Week 2 against the Chiefs. In the 17 times in which McDuffie lined up against Chase, he gave up one catch for four yards.
McDuffie will follow receivers to the boundary and line up against them in the slot, and the Chiefs are deep enough in their secondary to give McDuffie needed assistance.
Does Kansas City’s Defense Have Weaknesses?
It is a conceptual truth that every defense has weaknesses.
My point here is that Kansas City lacks weaknesses that New Orleans’ offense can take advantage of. So far, tight ends have enjoyed relatively strong success against the Chiefs — see especially the first three games of the season for examples.
New Orleans is not at all built to exploit this weakness. The Saints hardly make use of their tight ends in their pass attack. No Saints tight end has more than six targets on the entire season.
Another relative weakness of the Chiefs has been limiting pass-catching running backs. This is the best argument for Saints backers, and yet it is not a valid worry, because a few catches out of the backfield for the Saints’ running back are not going to make an impact on the game.
In any case, the Chiefs have improved in this regard since their season-opener. Atlanta’s stud running back Bijan Robinson suffered his lowest receiving total on the season against the Chiefs in Week 3. Most recently, Dobbins’ receiving total against the Chiefs was negligible.
Kansas City’s Key Losses on Offense
On offense, Kansas City has averaged fewer than 20 points in its last two games because it has missed a key offensive piece in running back Isiah Pacheco. Now injured, Pacheco is irreplaceable because his levels of physicality and violence are unique. The Chiefs do not have a running back who is remotely as difficult to tackle as Pacheco is.
However, the Chiefs’ offense will continue to worsen because it just lost another key piece in wide receiver Rashee Rice.
When the Chiefs exceeded 20 points in their first three games, Rashee Rice was their leading receiver every time. Despite not having Pacheco, they still managed 22 points against the Falcons largely because Rice amassed 12 receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown — although they also were fortunate to use short field position to kick two field goals.
Patience Required
As Rice’s development last year indicates, it takes time to learn how to catch passes from Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes loves to make plays on the run, but he is also forced to escape the pocket more often now, as I will discuss soon.
When he is on the run, he needs his wide receivers to understand where he wants them to go so that he can find them. It took Rice almost the entire regular season to gain this sort of chemistry with Mahomes. One can only expect for rookie Xavier Worthy to need much more learning time — October just started.
With former Ravens top wide receiver Marquise Brown also injured, the Chiefs anyhow lack healthy talent at the wide receiver position. The Saints also have a top-level cornerback in four-time Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore to shore up the pass defense for the Saints.
Happy Feet
Chiefs beat writers are writing about Patrick Mahomes’ happy feet.
When you watch him drop back to pass, he indeed does not tend to look comfortable in the pocket. This is because his pass protection is struggling. His offensive linemen are being pushed back, which is causing him to feel pressure. Mahomes is tending not to enjoy an empty pocket.
Mahomes’ discomfort largely explains why he is having the worst season of his career, including his worst touchdown-to-interception ratio. He often can’t even step into throws.
New Orleans has the personnel to bother a Chiefs offensive line that is having issues even with the likes of Cincinnati and its 29th-ranked pass rush and even with a Chargers team that missed Joey Bosa. Three different Saints players, two defensive linemen and a cornerback even, have at least three sacks so far.
Joe Woods Against Mobile Quarterbacks
Last year, the Saints’ defense under coordinator Joe Woods struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks. This is the best argument for Chiefs backers, but it is not a valid argument because this year is a new year.
When the Saints faced Philadelphia in Week 3, they held the Eagles to 15 points while limiting mobile quarterback Jalen Hurts to 25 rushing yards and 3.1 YPC. With speedy pass rushers like Chase Young, they have the ability to contain mobile quarterbacks, so Mahomes’ mobility will pose no problems.
Takeaway
This will be a low-scoring game in which both defenses dominate.
The Chiefs will take away the Saints’ running game and, with that, the potential for Carr’s play-action endeavors to succeed. Offensive line issues for both teams will be prominent: the Chiefs and Saints both have the pass rushes to make the opponent’s quarterback uncomfortable.
While the Saints’ run defense isn’t as effective as Kansas City’s, the Chiefs miss their stud running back and, majorly downgraded at the running back position, lack the personnel to run effectively. Likewise, Mahomes is the best quarterback, but the Chiefs can’t make use of his talents given their pass protection and wide receiver issues.
Kansas City, without Pacheco and Rice, will fail for a second straight week to reach 20 points. New Orleans will struggle to reach double digits.
The Saints only lose close games while the Chiefs, aided by their superior coaching and their clutch quarterback, only win them. So, I am seeing a 17-13 Chiefs win here.
NFL Pick: Under 42.5 (-110) at Bet365
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