The San Diego State Aztecs hope to find redemption against the Boise State Broncos on Friday. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best college football odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Over 57.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
San Diego State vs. Boise State
Friday, November 01, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Albertsons Stadium
San Diego State Stumbles in Late-Game Defense
San Diego State fought hard but couldn’t hold their lead as Washington State scored 15 unanswered points in the final quarter, turning a 26-14 Aztec advantage into a 29-26 loss on Saturday night. San Diego State had gone on a scoring run of their own earlier, posting 20 consecutive points and taking control of the game with 13:39 left, but Washington State’s late surge sealed the win.
Quarterback Danny O’Neil led San Diego State’s offense with 195 yards on 22 of 34 passing, throwing just one interception. Running back Marquez Cooper added 78 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries, while wide receiver Ja’Shaun Poke hauled in 10 catches for 80 yards.
The Aztecs capitalized on a key fumble in the third quarter by Washington State wideout Tony Freeman, recovered by Jelani Whitmore, which set up a 27-yard touchdown pass from freshman receiver Jordan Napier to Nate Bennett, putting San Diego State up 19-14.
Boise State’s Gritty Win Over UNLV
Boise State secured a hard-fought 29-24 victory over UNLV on Friday, fueled by a critical fourth-down touchdown from Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for 128 yards. Jeanty’s one-yard score in the fourth quarter put Boise State up for good with 12:38 remaining, marking his second-lowest rushing total this season but a crucial performance.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen added 209 yards and a touchdown through the air, helping Boise State maintain its College Football Playoff dreams and extend its bowl-eligibility streak to 27 seasons, only one year shy of Georgia’s active record.
Jeanty, who has averaged over 7 yards per carry in prior games, was held to 3.9 yards per attempt by UNLV’s defense, just topping his previous season-low 127-yard performance against Portland State.
Keys to the Game
San Diego State demonstrated resilience against Washington State, while Boise State, fueled by Jeanty’s clutch scoring, emerged victorious against UNLV. Boise’s ground-heavy approach, led by Jeanty, could test San Diego State’s defense, and both teams will need to capitalize on every opportunity, especially late in the game.
O’Neil’s accuracy and decision-making will be key against Boise State’s experienced secondary. With 22 completions from 34 attempts last game, he showed solid control. Connecting with Poke, who caught 10 passes for 80 yards, will be crucial if San Diego State aims to open up space for their ground game. Boise State’s secondary must contain this duo to limit any big gains that could keep the Aztecs within striking distance.
Cooper’s power running, demonstrated by two touchdowns against Washington State, could create problems for Boise State’s defense if he breaks through early. With 78 yards on 18 carries, Cooper’s reliability in tough situations could help San Diego State maintain a balanced attack. Boise’s defensive line will need to contain Cooper to keep San Diego State from controlling the tempo and establishing a rhythm.
Despite a challenging game against UNLV, Jeanty remains Boise’s top threat. His one-yard, fourth down touchdown against UNLV highlighted his ability to produce in clutch situations. San Diego State’s defense must stay disciplined to limit Jeanty’s impact, especially in short-yardage situations, to force Boise State into passing situations that could disrupt their game plan.
San Diego State’s critical turnover against Washington State led to a pivotal third-quarter touchdown, but a late-game muffed punt nearly undid their progress. Boise State’s disciplined approach to special teams gives them an edge, as avoiding mistakes in this area could prove decisive in a tightly contested game.
NCAAF Pick
Both teams have shown they can make key plays on both sides of the ball, but Boise State’s experience and Jeanty’s ability to grind out tough yards in critical situations could give them the advantage in a close, high-scoring battle. Expect San Diego State to keep it competitive, but Boise State’s offensive versatility should ultimately help them prevail.
NCAAF Pick: Over 57.5 (-110) at Bet365
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