Explore our expert picks for the San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl showdown. We’ve added a +485 same-game parlay at one of our top sportsbooks that you can tail along with!
Parlay Picks
- Brock Purdy Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+110)
- Over 47.5 (-110)
NFL Pick: Same-Game Parlay (+485) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
First Leg: Brock Purdy Over/Under 247.5 Passing Yards
Brock Purdy threw for more yards than Patrick Mahomes this season. He added 4,280 yards passing with 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. However, he had a QBR of 72.7, which was the best in the NFL.
Purdy hasn’t been the most accurate in the playoffs, averaging a 61.4% completion percentage. Therefore, the expectation is that the 49ers will be losing at the half and into the fourth quarter. Therefore, Purdy will have to throw the ball a lot more in the second half.
He earned a 51-yard completion against the Lions in the NFC Championship Game and added a 32-yard completion against the Packers in the NFC Divisional Playoffs. Purdy also threw at least 31 attempts in both playoff games and added 252+ yards in both matchups.
He’s hit this line in 67% of games this season. Purdy has also nailed 248 or more yards passing in seven of his last ten games.
The whole world expects the Niners to run it down Kansas City’s throats. That’s likely the game plan early. However, the 49ers will need to pivot when trailing early in this game.
NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Second Leg: Moneyline
After talking about Purdy, you know where I stand. I like the Chiefs to win another Super Bowl.
It’s interesting seeing so many people on the 49ers with Brock Purdy as quarterback. There’s no shade toward Brock Purdy. I acknowledged he’ll have a solid game with more than 247 yards passing. However, we’re talking about Patrick Mahomes, the former MVP and multi-year Super Bowl champion going up against a second-year quarterback who was named Mr. Irrelevant.
Purdy has done a lot of good things throughout his career, but the Chiefs will find ways to put pressure on him and force him into making mistakes. If you’re looking to put a bet on a quarterback to throw an interception, you’re most likely looking at Purdy’s odds, not Mahomes.
The Chiefs should win the turnover battle and will likely control the clock. This is Kansas City’s worst season in terms of yards per play in the passing game. The Chiefs are playing slower and moving the ball slower. But that won’t stop them from wearing down the 49ers to score some points on lengthy drives.
Kansas City’s Defense
While Kansas City’s offense didn’t shine much during the regular season, the defense did. The defense has played lights out all season and even held Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to just ten points.
Zay Flowers fumbled a ball in the endzone, so the Ravens were close to adding 17 points on the board. But still, the Chiefs continue to make other teams’ quarterbacks look silly. If they can hold Lamar Jackson, this year’s likely MVP, to just ten points, they’ll be able to create chaos against Purdy.
The Chiefs won’t be perfect, and the 49ers have a lot of weapons. San Francisco should end up scoring more than Baltimore. But at the end of the game, the Chiefs should be holding up the trophy.
NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (+110)
Third Leg: Over/Under 47.5
The only time Patrick Mahomes lost in the Super Bowl was against Tom Brady. The only other times Mahomes has lost in the playoffs was another game against Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. Mahomes is an elite quarterback who makes everyone else around him better. Don’t overthink it. The Lions went down the field easily against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.
Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers outplayed the 49ers in the NFC Divisional Playoffs for most of the game but couldn’t hold on.
When you have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, you’re going to hold on. They’ve been in these situations before. Therefore, the Chiefs should put enough points on the board to help push this game Over. The 49ers won’t be easy to defend, either.
With Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, the Niners have a lot of weapons that can make plays. However, I fully expect a turnover or two from the 49ers that turns this game upside down.
Purdy made some errors that were tough to come back from in the last game against the Lions. If Purdy and the Niners played like they did in the NFC Championship Game, they would’ve lost to the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs found ways to score offensively in tough environments on the road when so many analysts pleaded that they’d fall flat on their faces.
They didn’t. Therefore, I’m finishing off this parlay with the Over at -110 betting odds.
NFL Pick: Over 47.5 (-110)
Parlay Picks
- Brock Purdy Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-110)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+110)
- Over 47.5 (-110)
NFL Pick: Same-Game Parlay (+485) at Caesars Sportsbook
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