NFL Pick: 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 6.5 Wins (-143) at BetRivers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have won the NFC South with an 8-9 record last year, but they are the biggest longshots to win it again in 2023 according to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Yes, Tom Brady retired and this one looks like it will stick. With a few weeks left in August, even if Brady does shock the world and return, it absolutely won’t be in Tampa Bay, which is moving on with Baker Mayfield as he joins his 4th team since 2021.
The Buccaneers have an over/under of 6.5 wins. The defense should at least be formidable for head coach Todd Bowles, but can this offense get back on track with a new quarterback and coordinator? That will be the challenge this year.
Significant Changes
The Buccaneers have a new quarterback and offensive coordinator. The defense should still be solid and added another starter in the 1st round of the draft.
Baker Mayfield Gets Another Shot
We may see Kyle Trask at some point this season, but Baker Mayfield is projected to start the year at quarterback for the Buccaneers. He was a disaster with the Panthers last year before they benched and cut him. He signed with the Rams and 48 hours later, he led an incredible comeback win against the Raiders. He led a 98-yard touchdown drive in the final 2 minutes, which is a dream scenario that almost never works in this game.
That was the kind of wild comeback that helped the Buccaneers to a division title last year. But those were games with Brady at quarterback. Baker’s Vegas performance aside, he is one of the worst quarterbacks at pulling off late-game heroics.
In fact, Mayfield’s 8-22 (.267) record at game-winning drive opportunities is the worst among active starters with at least 15 opportunities.
Will Mayfield produce some bigger plays than Brady if he is willing to extend plays more and hold the ball longer? Yeah, that probably will happen. But the Buccaneers are downgrading in accuracy and decision-making with Mayfield. He also won’t see or take the short, easy throws Brady was known for. Those are the plays that extend drives.
But Mayfield is not without talent and will get his shot with another team. He also has a new coordinator to learn from.
Meet Dave Canales
The Buccaneers fired offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich after last year’s lousy performance that never got better. In finding a new OC, the team landed on Dave Canales, who has been with Pete Carroll in Seattle since 2010. This is his 1st time calling plays.
Finding successful coaches is all the rage in the NFL, but it sure has been hard to find good ones without prior experience. One sure path to a head coach job lately has been an offensive coordinator position. If Canales can pull this job off and make an offense with Mayfield look better than one with Brady last year, then he just may be on the fast track to becoming a head coach in this league.
The reason to be optimistic is Canales was the quarterbacks’ coach in Seattle last year when Geno Smith had a breakout season in his 10th year in the NFL. No one expected Geno to throw 30 touchdowns and make the Pro Bowl while leading the NFL in completion percentage, but that all happened. He also carried a Seattle team to the playoffs despite having a below-average defense.
Maybe that was a one-year wonder, but imagine if Canales was this hidden gem coach who can get the best out of Geno and Baker in back-to-back years.
The good news for Canales is he has a strong No. 1 wideout in Mike Evans. Chris Godwin should look better a full season removed from his ACL injury. That is still one of the better wide-receiver duos when healthy.
The Buccaneers also get more speed at running back with Leonard Fournette gone and Chase Edmonds backing up Rachaad White. Cade Otton is no longer a rookie at tight end. They are also moving their best offensive lineman, Tristan Wirfs, to left tackle, and center Ryan Jensen is back after missing the whole 2022 regular season.
It is realistic the Buccaneers are improved at every offensive position in 2023 except for quarterback. But they are replacing the 45-year-old version of Brady, who was thinking about retirement and his very public divorce, instead of vintage Brady.
But give Canales a medal if he pulls this off with Mayfield.
New Defender in Town
If Tampa Bay is going to compete for anything this year, it has to be the defense leading the way. While the core is not as strong as those old Tony Dungy teams in the 1990s, Bowles still has talent at all levels to work with here.
The pass rush will welcome back edge rusher Shaquil Barrett, who was limited to 8 games last season. He was the team’s best pass rusher in the previous seasons, so that should help out Vita Vea and Devin White up front.
The Buccaneers did not fall for the Will Levis bait at quarterback in the 1st round. In fact, they did not go offense at all, opting for defensive end Calijah Kancey out of Pittsburgh. Look for him to be a Week 1 starter. The team also added nose tackle Greg Gaines from the Rams.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
The teams in the NFC South definitely have a sweet schedule this season. Not only do they get to play each other as usual, they will face the AFC South and NFC North, which project as 2 of the weakest divisions this season. There may be a single 10-win team to come out of those divisions this year.
However, the schedule is stacked against Tampa Bay thanks to finishing 1st in the division last year. The Buccaneers will host the Eagles (Week 3) and go on the road to play the Bills and 49ers (Week 8 and Week 11), who are 3 of the top favorites for the Super Bowl this season. None of the other teams in the NFC South have to play any of those teams this year. That is a big disadvantage as the Buccaneers could easily go 0-3 in those games.
The Buccaneers will likely play defense well enough to win a number of games so that they are not seriously competing for the No 1 pick in the draft. But with Mayfield never winning more than 6 games in any season except for 2020, and Bowles’ history of double-digit losses, the under 6.5 feels like one of the best bets for your NFL picks this year.
People will blame the inevitable decline on Brady’s retirement, but that is just the cherry on top of what has been a series of retirements for this team ever since it won the Super Bowl 3 seasons ago.
2022 Recap: Brady’s Last Stand
The Buccaneers got off to a 2-0 start in 2022, but the offense did not crack 20 points in either game. When this happened in a 14-12 loss in the home opener to the Packers, the Buccaneers were starting to show us the season-long issues they would have on this side of the ball.
But the elephant in the room is that Tom Brady finally looked his age, which was 45 last year. He looked similar to Ben Roethlisberger in his final season in Pittsburgh in that he was tired of being hit and tried to release the ball as quickly as possible.
The problem with this style of offense is when your offensive line has issues and there is no running game, then the passing game has to carry everything. When the quarterback is old and not wanting to get hit, he is in the shotgun every play, so you lose play-action ability and effectiveness.
When the quarterback refuses to hold onto the ball and let receivers make things happen down the field, you get a lot of short, quick throws that the Tampa Bay offense was not well equipped to turn into YAC as that is not Mike Evans’ skill and Chris Godwin was a bit slow in his return from a torn ACL.
With these issues, the Buccaneers had a very unique offense in NFL history. Through 11 games, the Buccaneers had the fewest sacks and turnovers with Brady keeping the ball out of harm’s way, but they were only 27th in scoring. It is unheard of for an offense to score so few points when it is not taking many sacks or turning the ball over, but that is what happens when you get a 45-year-old quarterback who doesn’t want to get hit in a one-dimensional offense.
Roller-Coaster Season Ends with Mixed Results
Things never really picked up for the Buccaneers, and the turnovers started to doom them in the losses to the 49ers and Bengals. It may have easily been a lost season had it not been for the Rams, Saints, and Cardinals handing leads in the fourth quarter over on a silver platter to the Buccaneers.
At least we know in the no-huddle with the game on the line, Brady still had a few magical drives left in him. But at 7-8, the Buccaneers needed to beat Carolina at home to win the division title or risk missing the playoffs in Week 17. In that game, Brady played arguably the best game he played in his last 2 seasons, and the Buccaneers won 30-24 to clinch the NFC South again.
With an 8-8 record and the No. 4 seed a lock, the Buccaneers did not have to win in Week 18 against Atlanta. If anything, it would preserve a winning record and make sure Brady retired with an 11-0 record against the Falcons. But the Buccaneers went through the motions after halftime and lost to finish 8-9, Brady’s first losing season as a starter.
The Cowboys Loss
However, the Buccaneers hosted Dallas in the wild card round. There was some buzz that they could win this game thanks to Dallas having an abysmal 19-3 showing in Week 1 against Tampa Bay. Dak Prescott was awful that night, and that was true before he was injured in the game.
The Cowboys played much better later in the season, but their Week 18 loss to Washington looked almost identical to the Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay. The Cowboys were also a team the Buccaneers found their running game against, putting up 152 yards, one of only 3 games all season where they cracked 100 yards on the ground.
But the Cowboys wasted no time outclassing Tampa Bay. Brady threw a bad interception in the end zone early in the game, and Prescott had his best playoff game ever. The Buccaneers lost 31-14, and there was a strong feeling that Brady walked off the field for the last time ever as a player.
NFL Pick: 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 6.5 Wins (-143) at BetRivers
