Two teams desperate for a win meet when the TCU Horned Frogs travel to face the Utah Utes this Saturday. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best college football odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Under 51.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
TCU vs. Utah
Saturday, October 19, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Rice-Eccles Stadium
TCU Looking to Rebound From Rock Bottom
TCU’s season hit a new low with a 30-19 home defeat to Houston on October 4. The Horned Frogs entered the game as heavy favorites, only to be thoroughly outplayed. They turned the ball over four times and allowed 207 rushing yards to Houston, including a 71-yard touchdown by backup quarterback Zeon Chriss.
This loss dropped TCU to 3-3, a concerning record considering they faced one of the weakest opponents on their schedule.
Quarterback Josh Hoover has seen his early promise fade. Over the last three games, he has thrown six interceptions and fumbled three times, largely due to a lackluster running game that has left him responsible for carrying the offense. Hoover’s recent struggles highlight his growing pains, with several of his interceptions resulting from poor decisions and late, floating passes.
TCU’s offensive line has also been a liability, allowing Hoover to be sacked six times. Adding to the concern, Hoover’s reluctance to use his legs limits his ability to escape pressure, as he has only registered -15 rushing yards since last season. Until he can establish himself as a dual threat, opposing defenses will continue to sit back and capitalize on his mistakes.
The season has been a steady descent for TCU. After blowing a 21-point lead to UCF, a loss to SMU in front of a national audience seemed like the low point. But now, losing as a 17-point favorite to a Houston team with one of the worst offenses in the country feels like rock bottom. Despite Houston entering the game last in FBS in points per game, they racked up 361 yards of offense and 30 points against TCU.
On the other side, TCU’s offense didn’t record a first down until late in the fourth quarter and finished just 3-for-10 on third downs with an average distance of 7.7 yards. This lack of efficiency has been a major contributor to their inability to sustain drives and play winning football.
Utah’s Struggles Against Arizona State
Meanwhile, Utah is coming off a disappointing 27-19 loss to Arizona State on Friday. Quarterback Cameron Rising returned from a finger injury but was ineffective, throwing three interceptions and completing only 16 of 37 passes for 209 yards.
Rising also sustained a leg injury in the first quarter, further limiting him for the rest of the game. Utah struggled to capitalize on offensive opportunities, managing only one touchdown in seven trips inside Arizona State’s 30-yard line.
Despite their struggles, running back Micah Bernard was a bright spot for Utah, rushing for 129 yards and a touchdown. However, his performance wasn’t enough to overcome the team’s red-zone inefficiency and Rising’s turnovers.
Key Matchups
This game could prove pivotal for both teams as they attempt to get back on track. Both TCU and Utah have struggled on offense, making it likely that the outcome will hinge on mistakes and turnovers.
Hoover has been plagued by turnovers, with six interceptions and three fumbles in his last three games. Utah’s defense, known for forcing turnovers, will look to apply pressure and disrupt Hoover’s rhythm.
With Hoover’s hesitancy to run, the Utes may send extra rushers to force hurried decisions. If Hoover can improve his accuracy and avoid the costly, late throws that have been his downfall, TCU may have a chance to move the ball.
TCU’s defense has struggled mightily against the run, as evidenced by the 207 rushing yards they allowed to Houston. Utah will look to exploit this with Bernard, who is coming off a 129-yard performance. If Bernard can gain consistent yards on the ground, it will open up opportunities for Utah’s offense, especially as Rising continues to recover from his injuries.
Rising hasn’t been himself since returning from injury, and his three interceptions last week indicate he is still far from 100%. However, TCU’s secondary has been vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks, and if Rising can limit mistakes, Utah’s offense should find success. TCU’s defense, though, could capitalize on Rising’s limited mobility and force him into difficult passing situations.
TCU’s third-down struggles have been a major issue this season, with their inability to convert leading to stalled drives. Utah’s defense excels at getting teams off the field on third down, and if TCU continues to face long-yardage situations, their offense could be in trouble again. Establishing a more effective running game will be crucial for TCU to avoid third-and-long situations.
Both teams have struggled with turnovers, and in a game likely to be low-scoring, special teams and ball security could be the deciding factors. Utah has been effective at forcing interceptions, and TCU must protect the ball to have a chance. On the other hand, Utah’s issues in the red zone could keep the game closer than it should be, providing TCU with a window to capitalize.
NCAAF Pick
This matchup is likely to be a defensive struggle, with both teams relying heavily on their running games and hoping to avoid costly mistakes. TCU’s recent turnover issues give Utah the edge, especially with Bernard poised to have another strong game. However, Utah’s offensive limitations with a banged-up Rising may allow TCU to keep it close, and low-scoring.
NCAAF Pick: Under 51.5 (-110) at Bet365
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