The 2025 French Open begins on May 25th and tennis fans are excited about the exciting culmination of this year’s clay court swing.
The action has been fast and furious. There have been plenty of upsets and surprises, and the players are in their final form on clay, competing for the sport’s most prestigious clay court title.
The Futures market at the top-rated sportsbooks is a great opportunity to get large payouts by making smart wagers. The draws are out, and we can predict each player’s path to the final. With this in mind, let’s dive right in and find winning tennis picks.
Picks Summary:Â
- Carlos Alcaraz To Win the French Open (+105)
- Lorenzo Musetti To Win the French Open (+2000)
- Aryna Sabalenka To Win the French Open (+275)
- Jasmine Paolini To Win the French Open (+1200)
*All odds from BetMGM (check our BetMGM Review)
2025 French Open
May 25 –Â June 08, 2025 – 05:00 AM EDT at Stade Roland-Garros
Two-Man ATP Race
The ATP side of the French Open is essentially a two-man race between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.
These two faced off in the Final of the Rome tournament, which is a great predictor of success here at the French Open because the slow clay in Italy mimics the way that the clay plays in Paris. The results in Madrid can be misleading because those courts play much faster. The Rome courts are a much better facsimile of the action that we will see.
Before the dominant win in the Rome final by Carlos Alcaraz over Sinner, these odds would have been about even.
Alcaraz not only won, but he did so in impressive fashion. After a tense first set that Alcaraz squeaked out, he put his foot on the gas and ran away with the second set en route to a dominant victory. This moves the odds clearly in favor because any observer who watched Alcaraz defeat Sinner in that fashion would be hard-pressed to find a reason to back Sinner if they were to meet again.
Tactical Flexibility
The impressive part about Alcaraz’s victory was that he employed a different strategy against Sinner in Rome than he used in his last win over Sinner.
In his matches against Sinner in the past, Alcaraz would play an aggressive style, getting to the net and trying to end points early. In this match, Alcaraz was content to play Sinner’s game and beat him in his own style of play, from the baseline. This versatility means that Alcaraz has different game plans that he can employ depending on what is working and what isn’t. The diversity to have a plan A and a Plan B could be the difference in a potential final between these two men.
Alcaraz was thought to be the heir apparent for the clay court throne and I don’t see any reason why that should have changed. Although Sinner has played fantastically this season, these courts in Paris are tailor-made for Alcaraz’s style of play. Alcaraz is worth a bet here.
- Tennis Pick: Carlos Alcaraz To Win the French Open (+105) at BetMGMÂ
Musetti Poised for Breakout Run
If we are to look at a long shot, I would have to say Lorenzo Musetti.
Musetti has an excellent path to the semifinals. If he gets there, you will be able to hedge in the last two matches, as he will be an underdog unless we have crazy results on the other side of the bracket.
Musetti’s quarter of the draw his littered with Americans who traditionally have failed to find success at the French Open. Players like Frances Tiafoe, Jenson Brooksby and Taylor Fritz should all be defeatable for a player of Musetti’s caliber. Holger Rune is the toughest player in his draw. Rune has not been playing at his highest level lately.
I would also make a long shot bet on Musetti due to the fact that he has a favorable draw.
- Tennis Pick: Lorenzo Musetti To Win the French Open (+2000) at BetMGM
Sabalenka Still the Smart Play
As usual, the woman’s side is more wide open.
While it feels like a two-man race on the men’s side, there are many possible winners on the women’s side. Of course, the favorites Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek cannot be disregarded, but their path to the finals is much tougher.
Sabalenka’s toughest match before the quarterfinals would be against Danielle Collins. Sabalenka should be able to beat Collins in their current form. Then she will most likely meet last year’s champion Quinwen Zheng.
Zheng has not been playing as well this year, but then came out of nowhere to win the title last year and that could definitely happen again.
- Tennis Pick: Aryna Sabalenka To Win the French Open (+275) at BetMGM
Fourth-Round Exit a Real Threat
Iga Swiatek comes into the tournament in the worst form that we can remember from her since she burst onto the top of the tennis scene.
Swiatek has a fairly easy beginning of the draw, but look at the fourth round: Jelena Ostapenko! She is undefeated against Swiatek and this could be the end of her tournament if Ostapenko is to advance that far.
The funny thing about Ostapenko is that I’m much more confident in her beating Swiatek if she makes the fourth round than in her actually making the fourth round. Ostapenko is prone to playing down to the level of competition and could be easily upset before then. However, if she’s able to advance, I would be very surprised to see Swiatek get her first win over Ostapenko in this tournament.
Real Upset Potential
Jasmine Paolini won the Rome tournament, which is usually a precursor to success in Paris.
Paolini got a fairly easy draw and should not face a test until she takes on either Swiatek or Ostapenko in the quarterfinals. Paolini can be either of these players in the way she is playing. She presents the best value on the board.
- Jasmine Paolini To Win the French Open (+1200) at BetMGM
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