Texas and Oklahoma face off in a compelling SEC showdown this Saturday. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best college football odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma +14.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Texas vs. Oklahoma
Saturday, October 12, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Cotton Bowl
Texas Takes Command Against Mississippi State
Arch Manning led Texas to its first SEC win with a stellar performance, throwing for two touchdowns and adding a rushing score in a 35-13 victory over Mississippi State on September 28. Manning, stepping in for the injured Quinn Ewers (strained abdomen) for the second consecutive week, completed 26 of 31 passes for 324 yards.
Making a statement in their SEC debut after transitioning from the Big 12, Texas displayed flashes of brilliance despite some rough edges. Manning connected on a 49-yard strike to Deondre Moore in the second quarter and followed up with a one-yard rushing touchdown in the third, breaking open a contest that had been closer than expected against a Bulldogs team now mired in a four-game skid.
Manning’s highlight came on a 26-yard scramble that set up his own rushing touchdown to extend the lead to 21-6 by the end of the third quarter. He sealed the game early in the fourth with another scoring pass to Moore, putting the contest out of reach.
Texas’ defense was formidable, keeping Mississippi State out of the end zone until quarterback Michael Van Buren’s 12-yard run late in the fourth quarter snapped the Longhorns’ nine-quarter streak without surrendering a touchdown.
Despite the lopsided win, Texas’ ground game sputtered against one of the SEC’s weakest rushing defenses, and penalties hampered their momentum, racking up nine flags for 75 yards. Running back Jaydon Blue’s two fumbles stalled promising drives and will be a concern as the Longhorns prepare for their clash with Oklahoma.
Oklahoma Edges Out Auburn in a Thriller
On the same day, Oklahoma clawed back from an 11-point deficit to secure a 27-21 win over Auburn, thanks to Kip Lewis’ 61-yard interception return for a game-winning touchdown. The victory marked the Sooners’ first SEC win on the road.
True freshman Michael Hawkins Jr. took over as starting quarterback after Jackson Arnold’s injury and showcased his potential with 230 yards of total offense in his debut. Although the Sooners’ offense struggled to find its rhythm early, the defense stepped up, making crucial plays—including a fourth-down stand at the 1-yard line and forcing Auburn into two missed field goals in the second quarter.
Auburn’s Payton Thorne threw for 338 yards and three touchdowns but was undone by his sixth interception of the season, which Lewis turned into the game’s decisive play. With injuries depleting their wide receiver corps and a patchy offensive line, Oklahoma found success through Hawkins’ improvisation and the defense’s resilience.
The win sets up a high-stakes Red River Showdown with both Texas and Oklahoma riding momentum after historic first SEC victories. Manning is starting to hit his stride for the Longhorns, while Oklahoma’s defense, anchored by Lewis, is proving to be a force. This matchup may hinge on which team addresses its weaknesses more effectively.
Key Matchups to Watch
Manning’s pinpoint accuracy—completing over 80 percent of his passes against Mississippi State—and his growing chemistry with Moore make him a formidable challenge. However, Oklahoma’s defensive front, led by Lewis, has a knack for creating havoc, and if they can disrupt Manning’s timing, they could force him into mistakes.
Texas’ rushing attack, already shaky, remains a question mark with Blue’s ball security issues. If the Sooners’ defense can replicate its goal-line stand heroics from last week, the Longhorns could be forced into a one-dimensional offense.
On the flip side, Hawkins will be tested by Texas’ aggressive defense, which has shut down opponents for long stretches. Hawkins’ mobility and ability to extend plays will challenge Texas in ways they haven’t seen yet, but his inexperience also makes him susceptible to costly errors.
With two young quarterbacks at the helm, turnovers and special teams could become pivotal. Oklahoma’s defense has shown a knack for turning takeaways into points, while Texas’ pass rush will aim to pressure Hawkins into hurried decisions.
NCAAF Pick
Expect a cautious start as both teams feel each other out. Texas’ inconsistency on the ground and penalty issues could give Oklahoma opportunities, especially if the Sooners’ defense can pin their ears back and attack Manning in passing situations. Conversely, Oklahoma’s thin receiving corps and unreliable offensive line might limit Hawkins’ ability to sustain drives.
Ultimately, Texas’ more experienced defense and the budding connection between Manning and Moore should tilt the scales in the Longhorns’ favor. Manning’s quick, short passes and timely deep shots will wear down the Sooners, while the defense forces Hawkins into key mistakes. Texas prevails, but Oklahoma covers the spread.
NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma +14.5 (-110) at Bet365
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