The top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Saturday’s high-profile matchup between Texas and Michigan.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Wolverines to cover the spread.
NCAAF Pick
Michigan +7 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Texas Longhorns vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saturday, September 07, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Michigan Stadium
The Significance of Texas’ Run Game
Texas’ ability to score enough points to cover the spread will come down to its ground game.
Last year, when Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers was not attempting a play-action pass, his offensive grade dropped by about 20 points, his completion percentage plummeted, and his touchdown-to-interception ratio sank, relative to when he was attempting a play-action pass. In order to have a good game, he will need to rely on his play-action passing.
Texas’ rush attack needs to thrive because the outcome of play-action passes hinges on whether the defense perceives a threat from the offense’s rush attack. Of course, a team’s ground game will be perceived as threatening if it succeeds.
Texas’ Offensive Line
Running backs rely on strong run-blocking in order to succeed. Does Texas have good run-blockers? Texas returns most of its offensive line from last season. But is this a good thing?
It depends on the level of competition. When the Longhorns faced a rare high-level run defense last year, their offensive line failed to impress.
Even with a stronger running back – one who was a second-round pick in the most recent NFL Draft – than any running back they currently have – Alabama held the Longhorns’ ground game to 2.8 YPC.
Michigan’s Front Seven
Does Michigan have a high-level front seven, such that we can expect its run defense to be very good this year? The answer is yes.
First of all, its defensive line is stacked. Defensive linemen Kenneth Grant, Mason Graham, and Rayshaun Benny amassed a combined total of 18 tackles for loss last year.
For the linebackers, PFF run defense grades attest to the success of Josaiah Stewart against the run. Jaishawn Barham, who draws comparisons to former Michigan star linebacker Devin Bush, and Ernest Hausmann are likewise well-reputed run defenders.
This is a great group that is playing for a defense that annually ranks around top-five at limiting opposing rush yards. I like Texas’ ground game against a weak run defense but not at all against tougher front sevens.
Michigan’s Secondary
Now, it might still be believed that Ewers will have a good game. However, he is missing his top-four wide receivers from last year.
While the transfers replacing those departed wide receivers are drawing hype, they will be outmatched by Michigan’s secondary.
The top transfer wide receiver is arguably Isaiah Bond, who is coming from Alabama. Bond is known for his impressive speed. While Bond was amazing in track and could probably beat any Michigan cornerback in a 100m dash, a football game is not the same as a track meet, because, in a football game, a wide receiver has to run specific routes and to negotiate defenders.
Michigan cornerback Will Johnson is expected to be a top-five draft pick in the next NFL Draft because his motions are so fluid, allowing him to stick to wide receivers as they run their routes. He also possesses incredible closing speed and ball-hawking skills, as evident in his interception highlights. This combination of fluid motions, closing speed, and instincts will enable him to contain Bond.
A deep group beyond Johnson, including an All-American star from the FCS and a strong spring camp performer who was a four-star recruit, will support a pass defense that will also be strengthened by the well-demonstrated pass-rushing capacity, especially of its returning defensive ends.
Michigan’s Key on Offense
The most offensive success that any group of players will have in this game will come from Michigan’s rush attack.
It is crucial that Michigan succeeds on the ground because of the adage that “a good running back is a quarterback’s best friend.”
Michigan’s starting quarterback, as talented as he is – he was a four-star recruit – is still acclimating himself to the starting role. He would be helped immensely by a strong ground game.
Texas’ Decisive Vulnerability
I like Michigan’s offense because Texas will be most vulnerable against the run.
The Longhorns lost their All-American defensive tackles to the NFL. They also lost their defensive line coach. They will, therefore, be vulnerable in the interior of their defensive line.
But I also don’t like their linebackers against the run. David Gbenda has always struggled to cope with his size. He is an undersized linebacker who lacks the strength to contain Michigan’s strongest and most physical running back, Kalel Mullings, who plays even bigger than his size.
Moreover, Anthony Hill, as hinted by his low run defense grade last week, and Trey Moore, are characteristically stronger against the pass than against the run. This is the sort of front seven that Michigan will want to encounter.
Michigan’s Run-Blockers
It is true that Michigan’s offensive line lost its starters from a year ago. However, this sort of problem is typically overstated because an offensive line, each year, is going to rely on backups who will gain experience that will be valuable to them in subsequent years.
As measured by number of snaps, Michigan’s starting-caliber offensive linemen have significant experience heading into this year.
Those with less experience, namely center Dominic Giudice and right tackle Evan Link, proved their worth in the offseason where they earned strong reviews.
Giudice, in the offseason, beat out Greg Crippen for the starting center job. Impressively, Crippen had pushed last year’s star center, Drake Nugent, for the role. So, Giudice really had to earn his starting job, and this is important because centers have been crucial to Michigan’s success on the ground in recent years.
The Wolverines are well-built to run-block. An example of their focus on run-blocking is left guard Josh Priebe, a transfer from Northwestern whose weaknesses are so irrelevant. Yes, he is not so athletic, but it is his great size and strength that will be significant because of the usefulness to these traits to a team’s rush attack.
This group took time to gel in Week 1 but helped its team amass 113 second-half rushing yards. Michigan’s offensive line has the ability to build on this growing chemistry and success by taking advantage of Texas’ vulnerability in the interior of its defensive line – especially beyond Alfred Collins, which is mostly desperately needed transfers – and by what is not a deep group at linebacker.
Michigan’s Running Backs
For all of Michigan’s initial struggles on offense last week, Kalel Mullings looked excellent with his physical skill set. He will continue to bulldoze defenders, especially undersized ones like Gbenda, but with his 6.1 YPC last week he proved himself to be much more than a short-yardage guy.
Donovan Edwards, who averages 5.5 YPC in his career, is the running back who is more known for his big plays. Edwards has a strong history of breaking free for big runs and generally of coming through in big games against high-caliber opponents, such as Washington last year.
Concerns?
Need we be so concerned with Michigan’s quarterback situation, especially in view of the hype surrounding Texas’ highly-regarded cornerbacks?
Critics are harsh about quarterback Davis Warren‘s performance last week because they were spoiled by Michigan’s starting quarterback last year. Warren, though, is at the very least good at avoiding mistakes.
Michigan has one of the nation’s top tight ends in Colston Loveland and wide receivers who can get open – most notably Tyler Morris, who caught a touchdown in last year’s Rose Bowl, with his route-running that scouting reports describe.
So, Warren has help, especially with a big target like the 6’5 Loveland to lean on, with which to keep Texas’ defense honest as it struggles to contain Michigan’s ground game.
Warren was a four-star recruit, so he should gain confidence after his very safe performance last week, especially with play-calling that isn’t vanilla, as it was last week – Michigan’s offense did a great job last week of hiding things from Texas.
While Ewers is more developed than Warren, he will also lack Warren’s running back support, and he won’t have a guy like Loveland to lean on. Ewers, too, is notoriously unreliable when throwing deep, so, whereas Michigan can count on big plays from its running backs and the Warren-to-Loveland connection, Ewers will have to try to grind out drives by himself against Michigan’s annually superbly well-rounded defense.
In sum, I dismiss concerns surrounding Warren.
Total?
This looks to be a low-scoring game with two great defenses and two largely unexciting offenses. Should we consider the “under”?
I find the total to be much too low. Both Warren and Ewers could turn the ball over, which could lead to easy points.
Warren’s tendency to lock onto his initial read, Ewers’ own issues with his accuracy and his lack of the support from teammates that Warren will count on, and Michigan’s ball-hawk and havoc potential could lead to turnovers and help the score exceed the very low total.
The “over” would be further most obviously aided by Donovan Edwards’ big-play tendencies that seem most prominent in big games and by Loveland’s catch radius, which will make him an ideal target in the end zone.
The total is just too low for so many things that could plausibly go wrong for the “under.”
Takeaway
Michigan will win the turnover battle with its elite cornerback play. It will win the big play battle with the likes of Edwards and Loveland. Its offense will be more consistent thanks primarily to its ground game.
The Wolverines will exploit Texas’ vulnerable front seven while using especially Loveland to balance its offense.
Conversely, Ewers will lack the support he’ll so badly need, thanks to Michigan’s dominant front seven and strong secondary.
In sum, we are getting the stronger side – with its decisive matchup advantages – as the underdog at home.
NCAAF Pick: Michigan +7 (-110) at Bet365
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