MLB Pick: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180) at Bet365
We knew the National League West was going to be more competitive in 2023. But this is ridiculous: All five teams in the division were tied at 2-2 heading into Monday’s action.
Technically, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in first place at press time, although they were outscored 20-7 in their season-opening series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
But the Snakes were the right choice for your MLB picks, and the computers at OddsTrader say they’re still the ones to bet on this Tuesday, in the featured game of our latest 3-pack.
- Diamondbacks +1.5 (-180)
- Brewers +1.5 (-122)
- Rays/Nationals Over 8.5 (+110)
Tuesday, April 04, 2023 – 04:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
As the road dogs in all four of their games versus the Dodgers, Arizona ended up 1.37 betting units to the good by splitting the set 2-2. They face a similar situation at Petco Park this Tuesday, but perhaps not as dire; the Snakes are +125 on the MLB odds board at Bet365 for Game 1.
On the flip side, you have San Diego at 2-2 and 1.06 units in the red after their split with the Colorado Rockies, carrying heavy chalk into each of those games at Petco. Again, the Padres are in much the same monastery this Tuesday, although they were outscored 16-14 by Colorado.
The computers at OddsTrader have San Diego winning this contest 4.2 runs to 3.7, which isn’t quite close enough to recommend Arizona on the moneyline – but plenty if you take them on the run line instead at +1.5 (-180), at least as far as the computers are concerned.
That +1.5 means even more than usual in a game with a posted total of just seven runs. Speaking of which, those run projections are probably a shade on the high side for both teams, and that does seem to be a trend in the early days of the MLB campaign – as it was for college basketball.
We’d still recommend a slight lean on the Over if you want to put the total in your MLB picks, but there should be more value betting the run line with Zac Gallen (3.31 xFIP last year) taking the mound for Arizona opposite Yu Darvish (3.75 xFIP).
Tuesday, April 04, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field
This matchup was in our baseball picks for Monday, except we had these two teams going Over 7.5 runs – and they did, even though it was Milwaukee (3-1, plus-1.92 units) doing all the scoring in their 10-0 victory.
For Game 2 of this series, the computers prefer the Under – but once again, it’s the run line where you’ll find the best value. The Mets (3-2, plus-0.64 units) are projected to win four runs to 3.4; you’re getting a bargain price with Milwaukee +1.5 (-122) at FanDuel.
That’s because Max Scherzer (3.23 xFIP) is due up for New York. Scherzer is a talented pitcher, but over-hyped by the betting public in America’s largest betting market. Wade Miley (4.07 xFIP) is good enough to keep the Brewers close, and he has just enough of a low profile to seal in Milwaukee’s small-market betting value.
MLB Pick: Brewers +1.5 (-122) at FanDuel
Tuesday, April 04, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park
It’s back to the totals for our last stop, and as with Monday’s picks, it’s only a lean towards Over 8.5 for Tuesday’s game between the Rays (Under 2-1) and the Nationals (Under 2-1), although the +110 juice SBK is offering at press time almost makes this worth the standard single-unit bet.
Without that juice, we’re definitely keeping this bet size tiny. The computers have Washington winning 4.4 runs to 4.2, which leaves just the slimmest of margins above the Over – but also suggests these teams will go into extra innings tied 4-4, thus guaranteeing at least nine runs scored.
The Rays have yet to pencil in their starter at press time, but the Nats are handing the ball to Chad Kuhl (4.90 xFIP), who’s on his third MLB team in three years.
Kuhl might be shell-shocked after having to pitch at Coors Field last year for the Colorado Rockies, but at least it was probably better than the five seasons he spent with the Pittsburgh Pirates at the back end of their starting rotation.
Bet accordingly – the MLB computer picks have spoken.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (+110) at SBK