Picks Summary
- Brewers vs. Padres: Brewers ML (+112) at BetRivers
- Guardians vs. Nationals: Under 9.5 (-115) at BetMGM
- Angels vs. Red Sox: Red Sox ML (-105) at Bet365
Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.
Three games, in particular, interest us as worth investing in: the Brewers vs. Padres, Guardians vs. Nationals, and Angels vs. Red Sox.
For reasons that we will explain, you should play the side for the first and third games and the total for the second.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, April 15, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Petco Park
Computer Projection
Our computer project Milwaukee to win and the “under” to hit.
Who Starts for Milwaukee?
Freddy Peralta starts for the Brewers today. Peralta has enjoyed a terrific start to the season. In his first game, he shut out the Mets over the course of six innings. Most recently, he allowed one run in six innings against the Cardinals.
While his opponent today, San Diego, undoubtedly has some good hitters, his performance against two playoff teams from last year who have some solid hitters shows that he ably masters tough competition.
Peralta’s Situation
Peralta is in a particularly good spot today because he is a daytime pitcher. Note that the game starts at 01:05 PM local time, in San Diego, so his superior ability during the day will come into play.
Specifically, his career ERA is 3.17 during the day versus 4.10 at night. That is a uniquely large difference.
The Matchup
Peralta is thriving this season with his combination of a fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. He is comfortable mixing in all of these pitches at least nine or ten percent of the time.
San Diego’s hitting outlook is negative today because it is below-average, in terms of slugging rate, against his pitches from righties, despite having faced pitchers worse than Peralta.
So, the Padres won’t be too tough at all for Peralta today.
Seth Lugo’s Outlook
On the other side, former reliever Seth Lugo starts for the Padres. We shouldn’t ignore facts that run contrary to our pick, but we should be sure to understand their significance.
The fact is that Lugo has also had a strong start to the season, but it is also true that Milwaukee will be his toughest test yet.
The Brewers rank fifth in slugging against his pitches from righties. Their lineup is strongly improved, as evident in its newfound capability to reach double digits.
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (+112) at BetRivers
Cleveland Guardians vs. Washington Nationals
Saturday, April 15, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Nationals Park
Computer Projection
Our computers project Cleveland to win in a game that stays well below the total. Clearly, our computers are more confident in the “under” than in the Guardians ML.
We believe that this additional confidence is fully justified.
Zach Plesac’s Form
Cleveland starts Zach Plesac today. Now, Plesac might not look worth trusting given his high ERA, but his high ERA is a consequence of a single inning that he suffered through in his season-opener.
Plesac bounced back, though, limiting Seattle to two runs in seven innings in his last start. Evidently, Plesac’s form is more than fine. He is ready to go.
Plesac vs. Nationals’ Batters
Today, Plesac’s outlook is particularly positive because he matches up ideally against Nationals’ batters.
He throws a fastball-slider-changeup combo. These three pitches make up almost 98 percent of his arsenal. Washington, however, ranks dead-last in slugging .248 against these pitches from righties.
Chad Kuhl’s Outlook
Chad Kuhl starts for the Nationals today. He is primed to keep pace with a Guardian team that ranks 25th in slugging against his favorite pitches.
In expectation of a pitcher’s duel, add the “under” to your MLB picks.
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-115) at BetMGM
Los Angeles Angels vs. Boston Red Sox
Saturday, April 15, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Computer Projection
Our computers project a high-scoring Red Sox victory.
Tyler Anderson’s Outlook
Angels’ starter Tyler Anderson’s last start is worrisome. It is just one start, but he allowed three home runs and five innings. In that start, he played against Toronto.
While he did well in his other start, that other start came against an awful Oakland offense.
The point is that he has yet to show anything positive against a lineup that can breathe. Boston’s lineup, though, can do more than breathe. The Red Sox slug .478 against Anderson’s pitches from lefties.
Nick Pivetta’s Outlook
Boston starts Nick Pivetta tonight. He’ll outperform his Angels’ counterpart tonight because L.A. ranks 23rd in slugging against his pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Red Sox ML (-105) at Bet365
